Baltimore Orioles: Analyzing The Trade Chips

(Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images)

With the MLB trade deadline fast approaching, many teams are rushing to send players to their newest homes. One team that always seems to be selling: the Baltimore Orioles.

So far, the O's have made only one deal, and it was an insignificant one. The O's traded utility infielder Oscar Salazar to the San Diego Padres for sidearm relief pitcher Cla Meredith. Salazar, as he did with the O's, likely won't play a very big role in San Diego. In Baltimore, Salazar played the corner infield spots, but most of his contributions came at the plate.

In 31 at bats, Salazar logged 13 hits (.419 BA), two homers, and six RBI. However, the 30-year-old will be a backup in San Diego. The Padres have an All Star first baseman in Adrian Gonzalez (25 HR, 53 RBI) and a competent third baseman in Kevin Kouzmanoff (13 HR, 50 RBI). However, it's unlikely Salazar is the only player moved from Baltimore.

Aubrey Huff: A solid left handed batter with power, Huff has always been surrounded in trade rumors. This year, at 32, he's batting .257 with 11 homers, 57 RBI, a .322 OBP, and 20 doubles. It's been a disappointing performance for Huff, especially following a 2008 season in which he was voted "Most Valuable Oriole", batting .304 with 32 homers and 108 RBI. Teams like the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets could roll the dice on the veteran.

Last year, the Mets got incredible production out of Carlos Delgado, who drove in 115 runs. However, the left handed veteran appeared in just 26 games this year and will be out until mid-August. Both Delgado and Huff will be free agents after this season, so there could be a swap of Huff taking Delgado's spot in the Big Apple, with Delgado shopping for big money.

The Giants have gotten amazing play out of youngster Pablo Sandoval. However, Sandoval mostly plays third base, and has played incredibly well, with a .327 average, 15 homers, 66 RBI, .377 OBP, and 25 doubles. Despite this, the Giants seem to be a power bat away from securing the National League Wild Card spot. Huff could be a candidate for the Giants, and with the exceptional farm system the Giants have, the O's could squeeze a couple of prospects out of them.

Melvin Mora: One of the more stressful players to watch so far this year on the Orioles is third baseman Melvin Mora. In the 2008 season, he was very impressive, driving in 104 runs. However, it's clear that, this year, Mora is aging. The 37-year-old third baseman has a whopping total of three homers, 24 RBI, a .267 average, and a .333 OBP. Last year at the All Star Break, he had 11 homers and 48 RBI. While he was hitting just .232, he was much more productive, and I'm sure O's fans would prefer production over average.

Mora, to put it lightly, will be tough to move. He's 37 years old, hasn't shown any power at all as of late (one home run in last 206 at bats), hasn't been very productive (on pace for 48 RBI), and has even been outplayed by backups like Ty Wigginton are more productive. Wigginton is a backup corner infielder who gets, at best, two starts a week. In 33 less at bats than Mora, he has more homers, RBI, doubles, and extra base hits. Rookie Nolan Reimold has three times more homers than the vet.

In that he's old and struggling, he'll be tough to deal. On top of that, Mora loves Baltimore, and has a no-trade clause. It's very likely the O's will stick it out with Mora until the end of the year, and then decide to let him hit the free agent market, at which point he'll likely be all but forced to sign a deal as a backup third baseman for a contending team.

George Sherrill: This year, closer George Sherrill got off to a very rocky start. Through the month of April, he was 0-1,surrending 13 hits and five runs in just under 10 innings. He had a rocky 4.66 ERA, but had blown just one save. In his first appearance in May, he allowed a home run to Aaron Hill, which tied the game. It seemed his struggles would continue. Since then, however, he's been dynamite. After that homer to Hill, he pitched ten innings, allowed three hits, and no runs, finishing the month of May with a solid 2.61 ERA, and 10 saves in 12 opportunities.

He wasn't as good in June, but allowed only one run in 11 innings. That run was allowed in a game in which the O's were up 3-0, and went on to win, 3-1. At the end of June, his ERA was below two, and had 17 saves in 19 chances. He had a terrible outing on July 1st against the Boston Red Sox, thus resulting in an extra inning loss, allowing two runs and three walks in just two thirds of an inning. However, since May 3rd, there's no denying Sherrill has been pretty much unstoppable.

In those outings, he has a 1.17 ERA and in just over 27 innings, he's allowed 17 hits, nine walks, and 26 strikeouts. So why on earth would the O's trade him? Well, his value is high. Let's face it, you can insert practically any worthy MLB pitcher in the closer role and they'd do fine. Heck, just ask Sherrill, Brian Fuentes, Heath Bell, or Brian Wilson. The O's could get two fine prospects for him, and while a plethora of teams are interested in him, the Los Angeles Angels appear to be the frontrunners. Other teams with interest appear to be the Dodgers, Phillies, Marlins, Cubs, and Brewers.

Danys Baez: Once the trade of Cla Meredith became official, it appeared to be only a matter of time before a Danys Baez or George Sherrill trade. The reason for this is because Meredith would likely play a Danys Baez like role: a seventh inning relief pitcher. Obviously, someone would have to go. Either Meredith would replace Baez, and Baez would move to Jim Johnson's eighth inning role, who would replace Sherrill as closer. That, of course, would be if Sherrill is traded, which may or may not happen. If Baez is traded, Jim Johnson would remain the eighth inning man, and Meredith would play his normal seventh inning role.

Baez got off to a hot start this year. In fact, through May 16th, he was the O's most reliable reliever with a rock-solid 2.11 ERA. That's when he began to slip. In his next appearance, a May 20th 11-4 loss to the Yankees, Baez came on late in the game, and allowed four runs and recorded just one out. After sporting a 3.00 ERA in April, his ERAs have gone up each month. In May, it was a shaky 4.32, followed by 5.40 in June, and a terrible 7.11 in July. Since May 16th, he has a 6.57 ERA. Despite his recent struggles, some teams could see the use in a veteran reliever.

He's got an undesirable contract (makes $7.16M in 2009), is aging, and appears to be the most likely to be dealt at this point out of all the players who could be dangled. He provides an arm out of the bullpen, and could even start. Heck, in Spring Training, he made a case to be in the back end of the O's rotation. Baez could fit in just about anywhere, and the team that makes the most sense is Philadelphia. The Phillies need some bullpen help, as Brad Lidge is still terrible, and the Phightin' Phils could get him for a prospect or two.

Jeremy Guthrie: The O's will certainly have to be overwhelmed to deal Guthrie. With Koji Uehara hurt, the O's are going to need as many pitchers as they can possibly get, unless of course, they call up Triple A pitchers Chris Tillman (8-5, 2.43 ERA), Jake Arrieta (9-6, 3.10 ERA), and/or Troy Patton (7-5, 3.43 ERA). If they were to call up one of those prospects, the rotation would then consist of Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, Rich Hill, Tillman/Arrieta/Patton, and Jason Berken. Guthrie would be the odd man out.

Guthrie has struggled at keeping the baseball in the ballpark. In 19 starts this year, he is 7-8, has a 5.12 earned run average, and has given up 22 home runs. It's very unlikely Guthrie will get dealt. He's slightly injury prone, and has struggled mightily throughout the year, so the market won't be especially good. Following a great year in which he posted a 3.63 ERA, it shows the team doesn't have the utmost confidence in Guthrie when they signed him to a one-year, $650,000 deal.

While there's no question Brad Bergesen has been this year's staff ace,  it's Guthrie was the Opening Day starter, but he has pitched like a 4/5, which some teams would recruit him as. The O's would have to be overwhelmed with a generous offer to part with Guthrie. And it's not like they're in love with the guy. The bottom line is, they need pitching, and they'd have to rush young pitching to the majors if they wanted to part with him, which I very much doubt will happen.

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Right now, I think only Baez will be dealt. I think the O's will be have to overwhelmed to deal Guthrie or Huff, and according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, who is very reliable with his reporting, says the O's are in "don't-have-to-move-him-so-make-us" mode.

In other words, the O's aren't going out of their way to move him, but if a generous offer comes their way, the Birds will certainly mull over their options. Mora will not only be hard to deal, but he doesn't want to leave, and he has a no-trade clause.

Stay tuned.

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