Can Tom Watson Pull Off the Most Improbable Moment in Sports History?

(Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)

Don't get me wrong, I expected to see Tom Watson plenty of times this weekend— in grainy film footage from 1977, with long red hair, rainbow-plaid pants, and an extra small green shirt.

Yet, here he is in 2009, just your typical 59-year-old leader of the Open Championship.

A Watson Victory Just Might Be the Most Improbable Moment in Sports History

.Watson winning a major at 59 would not be your typical sappy "awww, the old guy won!" story— like Jack Nicklaus' 1986 Masters, or Ray Bourque finally hoisting the Stanley Cup at age 40 with the Colorado Avalanche. 

Those moments were all within some realm of human rationality.

Tom Watson's final round tomorrow is literally the stuff of our wildest dreams. It would be like Nolan Ryan rejoining the Astros at age 62 to start Game 7 of the 2009 World Series.

Or, imagine seeing a 60-year-old Terry Bradshaw leading Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward down the field for a chance to win Super Bowl XLIIII. 

Maybe picture jockey Kent Desormeaux riding Mine That Bird down the homestretch at Churchill Downs—then looking over his shoulder to see the legendary Secretariat being turned loose by the rail.

Those sorts of moments are only imagined while you're sleeping, or maybe after a heavy dose of mind-altering substances.

Now, believe it or not, it's reality.

Can He Do It?

Sure, Tom Watson is leading now, but Greg Norman was leading at the same point in last year's open—and his fate wasn't exactly what we'd hoped. 

Truth be told, we've seen plenty of older players turn back the clock, but fail to capitalize.

At the 1967 Masters, a 54-year-old Ben Hogan shot a 66 in the third round, putting him just a few shots off the lead. Mind you, this was the same Ben Hogan who wasn't sure if he would walk again 17 years earlier, and who needed to wrap his entire legs in Ace bandages before every round. 

Hogan couldn't get it done. He finished in 10th place.

A 53-year-old Julius Boros led part of the final round during the 1973 U.S. Open at Oakmont. That was until a blond-haired Johnny Miller shot 63, and Boros wound up finishing in a tie for seventh.

Then, on a April afternoon in 1998, I switched my TV to CBS and saw Jack Nicklaus' name atop the leaderboard at the Masters. Nicklaus was a ripe-old 58. He seemed capable of winning a seventh green jacket at the turn, but he faltered on the back, and wound up tying for sixth.

Remember, this was all prior to the Tiger era. This was before practically every course was lengthened to 7,500 yards, before players pumped iron after rounds, before it became necessary to wear either a red shirt or a white belt to win a major.

In my expert oddsmaking opinion (cough), I'd put Watson's chances at about 20 percent.

Sure, the British Open is his masterpiece, but the Masters was Nicklaus' forte too, and he wouldn't have won the 1986 Masters without a lot of help from Seve, Greg, Tom, and Corey, not to mention his falter in 1998.

Tomorrow, there will be too many young guns within reach, and Watson's putter is destined to falter at some point (as it has throughout his career).

I'd love to see him win it—but I have to be realistic and say 20 percent.

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