NFL Picks Week 1: Breaking Down Vegas' Closest Spreads to Begin 2014 Season

Chris RolingFeatured ColumnistSeptember 4, 2014

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks (10) scores a touchdown on a 25-yard pass reception in the third quarter of a preseason NFL football game against the St. Louis Rams Friday, Aug. 8, 2014, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)
L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

It is the closest NFL Week 1 spreads that will sneak up on bettors. 

After all, the spreads for what appear to be evenly matched encounters are constructed as such for good reason. If Vegas cannot get a comfortable read as to how a contest will play out, the job is even more difficult for those who throw cash on the line.

Below, let's examine a few of the closest spreads Week 1 has to offer, dig through droves of info and come up with a way to make a safe investment on a risky line.


NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick ATS Reason
Green Bay at Seattle (Thurs., Sept. 4) Seattle (-3.5) Seattle Seahawks don't lose at home, and Aaron Rodgers has to break in a new center.
New Orleans at Atlanta New Orleans (-1) New Orleans See analysis below chart.
Minnesota at St. Louis St. Louis (-3) Minnesota Mike Zimmer defense, no Sam Bradford and Adrian Peterson? Easy.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh (-5) Pittsburgh More no-huddle for Ben Roethlisberger means plenty of scoring.
Jacksonville at Philadelphia Philadelphia (-11.5) Jacksonville Chip Kelly's offense is too much for a mediocre Jacksonville defense to handle.
Oakland at NY Jets NY Jets (-4.5) NY Jets A Rex Ryan defense awaits Derek Carr's debut.
Cincinnati at Baltimore Baltimore (-1) Cincinnati See analysis below chart.
Buffalo at Chicago Chicago (-4.5) Chicago The Bills are a mess, and Marc Trestman's offense won't skip a beat.
Washington at Houston EVEN Washington See analysis below chart.
Tennessee at Kansas City Kansas City (-5.5) Tennessee Defensive-centric contest with Jake Locker able to keep the Titans close.
New England at Miami New England (-1.5) New England Rob Gronkowski's return threw Miami's chances out the window.
Carolina at Tampa Bay Carolina (-3) Tampa Bay Lovie Smith will get the most out of an elite defense while a hobbled Cam Newton struggles.
San Francisco at Dallas San Francisco (-2.5) San Francisco Defense will keep Tony Romo and Co. in check.
Indianapolis at Denver Denver (-6) Denver Indianapolis has done little to improve an already leaky defense from a season ago.
NY Giants at Detroit (Mon., Sept. 8) Detroit (-3.5) NY Giants Lions offense is too explosive for Giants to keep up.
San Diego at Arizona (Mon., Sept. 8) Arizona (-3) Arizona Forced to pick, home team with a great defense seems the likely bet.
ESPN, odds via Odds Shark.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 1 p.m. ET, Sept. 3.


Cincinnati at Baltimore

CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 29:  Giovani Bernard #25 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs with the ball during the NFL game against the Baltimore Ravens  at Paul Brown Stadium on December 29, 2013 in Cincinnati, Ohio.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Leave it to an AFC North affair to throw Vegas for a loop.

On one hand, the home team seems the safe bet, especially when bettors take into account that Cincinnati has lost four in a row at M&T Bank Stadium and that Baltimore actually holds a 13-5 advantage there overall.

But this time feels different.

The Ravens are at home and have an exciting new rookie linebacker by the name of C.J. Mosley, who seems a shoo-in for the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. But offensively, the Ravens are a mess with Ray Rice suspended and backup Bernard Pierce working his way back after a slew of injuries.

"We took him as high as we did for a reason," coach John Harbaugh said of Pierce, per's Jamison Hensley. "He's got talent. He's tough. He works really hard. We've all seen him carry the ball at his best. We just want to see him at his best."

Pierce might just bring his best, but so will a Bengals defense that ranked No. 5 overall against the rush last season—with defensive tackle Geno Atkins out the last seven games due to injury. 

Offensively, quarterback Andy Dalton appears to have taken the proverbial next step under new coordinator Hue Jackson. In three preseason contests that debuted a new-look offense with a major dash of a no-huddle attack, Dalton went 24 of 34 for 372 yards and a touchdown.

Remember, the Bengals took down the Ravens in the final week of last season, 34-17, while Dalton bumbled around and completed 58.3 percent of his passes for 281 yards and a 2-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

In what seems a rather predictable matchup if bettors enjoy history that much, expect the opposite to happen with the Ravens not at 100 percent and the Bengals set to hit another growth spurt.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 17


Washington at Houston

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 13:  Robert Griffin III #10 of the Washington Redskins runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on October 13, 2013 in Arlington, Texas.  The Cowboys defeated the Redskins 31-16.  (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Of course, a contest between two first-year head coaches has a tiny line. Of course, a game between two teams that combined for five wins last year has a tiny line.

In one of the more boring affairs the Week 1 slate has to offer, Jay Gruden and Washington make the trip to Houston to take on Bill O'Brien's Texans.

While Gruden gets to implement his offense and work with Robert Griffin III, O'Brien—a superb offensive mind himself—has to pick between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Mallett. The former is a journeyman who has bounced around the league, the latter was supposedly the heir apparent to Tom Brady.

There is an allure to give Houston the nod here despite having a disadvantage at the most important position of all. J.J. Watt, who notched 10.5 sacks a year ago and 21.5 the year before that, leads a stellar defense that includes No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney and Brian Cushing.

The problem, though, is the wealth of diverse weapons Gruden's offense brings to the table, as well as the issues in the Houston secondary, as's Tania Ganguli breaks down:

That'll be a big challenge to start the year for the Texans' secondary. It's going to look very different from how it has in the past, with starter Kareem Jackson taking a lot of slot responsibilities. He is a more physical corner, well suited to playing inside, where those defensive holding penalties are a little more forgiving. Johnathan Joseph is the Texans' other starter and he missed the entire preseason while managing his recovery from foot surgery in January. Joseph says he's ready to go, but how much he does isn't yet clear. Beyond those two players is A.J. Bouye, a talented but unproven cornerback who was an undrafted rookie last season.

With DeSean Jackson on one side (fresh off a career year), Pierre Garcon on another (last year's receptions leader) and Alfred Morris in the backfield (1,275 yards and seven scores last year), bettors must give Washington the nod as the offense can surely outgun a Houston unit with a strong ground game and little else.

Prediction: Washington 20, Texans 14


New Orleans at Atlanta

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Another divisional matchup, another problem for bettors.

Except this one seems to be rather easy. Fans know about Drew Brees and a pass-happy attack. They also know that Darren Sproles is in Philadelphia, but that coach Sean Payton and the front office went out and added receiver Brandin Cooks in the draft, who might just be even better in the very same role.

Credit goes to Atlanta, though, for understanding the offensive arms race in the NFL, not to mention the NFC South. The front office added Tyson Jackson at defensive end and Paul Soliai at tackle, two standouts who ranked in the top 20 at their positions last season in Kansas City and Miami, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The problem for Atlanta lies where it hurts against the Saints—in the secondary. Safety Dwight Lowery played in just three games a season ago and William Moore ranked as the No. 48 player at the position last season at PFF.

Matt Ryan seems poised for a redemption tour this season now that Julio Jones is healthy, but the Saints defense is on the verge of earning the elite label. At PFF, corner Keenan Lewis ranked in the top 30 last year and continues to improve, safety Kenny Vaccaro ranked at No. 23 as a rookie and new addition Jairus Byrd ranked at No. 8.

There is a reason the Saints have won 13 of 16 meetings between these teams since Payton took the reins in 2006. Expect that margin to grow come Sunday.

Prediction: Saints 30, Falcons 24


Note: Stats courtesy of Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).


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