Size Does Matter: How an NFL Player's Height and Weight Affect Performance

(Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

 
Looking at the table, we don’t see any trend based on height and fantasy points. But when we split it up based on groups of three, we do: Wide receivers less than 71 inches tall finished in the top quarter of fantasy points 27 percent of the time, compared to 25.5 percent for wideouts between 72 and 74 inches and 22.5 percent for those greater than 75 inches.

Doing this for both yards per catch and touchdowns per catch, we see the obvious—YPC goes down as height increases, and touchdowns goes up as height goes up.

(By the way, the difference in those odds in YPC between the tallest and shortest receivers is 8.2 percent, while that number is 2.3 percent for touchdowns per catch. This suggests that it’s easier for shorter receivers to have a good season in touchdowns than it is for taller receivers to have a good season in terms of yards per catch.)

There’s a loose correlation between weight and yards per catch, while there’s not much relationship between weight and touchdowns.

The receivers above 241 pounds were all tight ends, so don’t look into the zeros too much.

Looking now into the forecasting power of height and weight for receivers, we see that, for receivers with 60 receptions in three straight years for the same team, height affects yards by only 7.86 yards in 70 receptions—benefiting smaller wideouts—while it affects fantasy points and touchdowns by less than one-fourth—both benefiting taller receivers.

Onto weight, we find that 180-pound receivers have a 6.55-fantasy-point and 37-yard edge over 230-pound receivers, as opposed to the 0.45-touchdown advantage the heavier receivers have.

It appears that height multiplied by weight will include both of those measurables into one statistic and would be a better indicator than BMI, but that’s wrong; I did these tests with both stats, and BMI affects production much greater than height x weight.

The difference between a 5′ 9″, 180-pound receiver and a 5′ 9″, 230-pound receiver? A massive 16 fantasy points—82 yards and 1.24 touchdowns, both with the edge to the bonier wideout. Sixteen fantasy points was the difference between the Nos. 15 and 23 receivers in fantasy points last year.

Remember last week’s article regarding aging curves? I commented on how Ted Ginn Jr. could have a breakout season this year, as he’s turning 24.

Here’s more evidence that you should take him late in your draft: The 3.26 difference in  BMI between him and highly-touted rookie Michael Crabtree, who is being selected 20 spots ahead of Ginn overall, equates to an advantage for Ginn of seven fantasy points, 36 yards, and half a touchdown.

Be sure to look at Ginn—as well as Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston, whose BMI is even two points less than Ginn—as possible sleepers at wide receiver in your draft.

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