Missouri Tigers vs. Toledo Rockets Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 4, 2014

FILE - In this Jan. 3, 2014 file photo, Missouri quarterback Maty Mauk (7) rolls back to pass against Oklahoma State during the second half of the Cotton Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas. Mauk feels more confident on and off the field in the first few days of his second playing season with the Tigers. (AP Photo/Tim Sharp, File)
Tim Sharp/Associated Press

The Missouri Tigers are on a roll, with 13 wins and 12 covers in their last 15 games. The Toledo Rockets are on a run of their own, with seven wins in their last eight home games.

This week, Mizzou takes its act on the road for a rare visit to a MAC town when it plays at the Glass Bowl on Saturday afternoon.


Point spread: The Tigers opened as 5.5-point favorites, but the line was down to -3.5 by Thursday, according to most sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 60 (line updates and matchup report).


Odds Shark computer prediction: 31.5-28.6 Toledo


Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers opened this season with a 38-18 victory over FCS South Dakota State, although they couldn't quite cover the spread as 25-point favorites. Mizzou led throughout the game, and just when things got iffy, the Tigers spurted away for the 20-point win.

Missouri outrushed the Jackrabbits 215-119, got three touchdown passes from quarterback Maty Mauk and forced three turnovers. The Tigers only return eight starters this year, but three of them are on the offensive line, and two of them are on the defensive front four.

And that doesn't include Mauk, who now owns a 14-2 career touchdown-to-interception ratio. Finally, Missouri is 3-0 ATS in its last three games chalked as favorites on the road.


Why the Toledo Rockets can cover the spread

The Rockets began their season with a 54-20 win over FCS New Hampshire, covering as 11-point chalk. Toledo spotted the Wildcats an early 14-3 lead and then scored 38 points in the second half to roll to the victory.

The Rockets racked up 667 yards of offense, 307 on the ground and 360 through the air. Toledo has 16 starters back this year, including seven on offense, led by four along the line, and nine on defense.

Going back to 2010, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Big Five conference opponents, according to the Odds Shark college football database, including a cover as 16-point road dogs at Missouri last season.


Smart Pick

Missouri has a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball, while Toledo brings back almost its entire offensive line and defense. The Rockets must be licking their chops at the chance to knock off a big-time foe on their home field.

Talent-wise, the Tigers might still have an edge, but this game sets up as a possible upset. So the pick here is on the home dog.



  • Missouri is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games.
  • Toledo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.


All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates, and get the free odds tracker app.