UFC Fight Night 50 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC Fight Night 50 takes place in Connecticut on Friday, and this event is fantastic from top to bottom.
All the bouts will take place on Fox Sports 1, but the main card is four fights long. It is spearheaded by No. 4-ranked middleweight contender Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. No. 7-ranked Gegard Mousasi.
After recent events have been lackluster, UFC Fight Night 50 will attempt to right the ship with meaningful fights. The main event bout will set up the victor to become a legitimate title challenger to Chris Weidman.
We will take a look at the betting lines for the main card in an attempt to better inform you of the matchups this weekend. It should be an exciting evening of fights with ample live underdogs to keep an eye on.
Joe Lauzon (+110) vs. Michael Chiesa (-140)
Michael Chiesa is 4-1 in his UFC career with his only loss coming to current No. 13-ranked contender Jorge Masvidal. He has shown improvement since winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 15, but Joe Lauzon will be a tough opponent.
This bout will tell us a lot about Chiesa and his ceiling as a fighter.
Lauzon is 2-3 since 2012 but is coming off a win this past December. He needs this win to make a run up the ladder in the lightweight division.
Perhaps I am just not a believer in Chiesa, but I side with Lauzon. He will shut down Chiesa's grappling and has more years of experience on the feet. He'll do enough to survive and win on points.
The Play: Good odds on the veteran
Matt Mitrione (+135) vs. Derrick Lewis (-165)
Derrick Lewis is 2-0 in the UFC, and both wins were very impressive KO stoppages. However, neither was against top-tier talent.
Matt Mitrione isn't a top-tier talent either, but he is an athletic heavyweight who has gone against much stiffer competition. Mitrione has put together a competent MMA game over the years, and that makes him a dangerous opponent for Lewis.
Most likely someone will go to sleep in this fight. It will be whoever lands first. And I side with Mitrione.
As for who to play, it's hard not to throw a little something on Mitrione as the dog even if you think Lewis will win. At plus-135 it is too tempting to pass up against an unproven, untested fighter in Lewis.
The Play: A small play on Mitrione could pay off
Alistair Overeem (-550) vs. Ben Rothwell (+375)
This is the most difficult bout to figure out.
Overeem is the big favorite, and that is who I believe will win. But history tells me it isn't a sure thing. No matter how well Overeem did in his last fight, or how good his camp has gone, I cannot justify going all-in on Overeem.
Rothwell can take a beating, and then he can land a KO punch. That has been Overeem's weakness. If Rothwell can hang in there long enough to land one blow, he could very well win. But should you take the risk at plus-375?
I can't advise that. It just doesn't make sense in this matchup. It's a bit too risky for me, even though I had gone with the underdog up to this point.
The Play: Avoid the fight
Jacare Souza (-300) vs. Gegard Mousasi (+230)
This is a rematch of their Dream 2008 Middleweight Grand Prix Final. The final was ended by Mousasi by an upkick knockout.
Things will likely be different in this fight, and we all hope it goes past the three-minute mark.
Mousasi is a tough out for anyone, but it may be hard for him to put together the consistent wins to make a title bid. He has the talent, but the opposition he must go through to get there gives pause to the notion.
Souza has made leaps and bounds in his striking. He has knockout power, and his ground game is next-level. That is why he is such a steep favorite. However, that puts a lot of value on a very credible opponent.
I side with the oddsmakers on this one. Jacare is one step away from a title shot, and a win here should do it. In a 25-minute affair he must pace himself, but he will find the win before the judges get involved.
Prediction: Souza defeats Mousasi via submission in the third round
The Play: Take a flier on Mousasi at the current odds
Just-for-Fun Full-Card Parlay: Sean Soriano, Chris Beal, Rafael Natal, Al Iaquinta, John Moraga, Charles Oliveira, Joe Lauzon, Matt Mitrione, Alistair Overeem, Jacare Souza
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