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Raiders vs. Jets: What Are Experts Saying About New York?

New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan, center, and quarterback Geno Smith (7) watch warm-ups before an NFL preseason football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
Chris Szagola/Associated Press
Ryan AlfieriCorrespondent IIIDecember 6, 2016

The New York Jets will kick off their season against the Oakland Raiders this Sunday as they try to get their first win of the season. 

As far as Week 1 games go, this is as close to a "must-win" as it gets for the Jets. Their daunting schedule over the next two months—which includes matchups against the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots—gives the Jets little room for error in the few games that they will be favored in. 

While the Jets will be favored in this matchup, they must be careful not to look past this rejuvenated Raiders team. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr has injected new life into the offense since tearing apart the Seattle Seahawks in the final week of the preseason.

Recent developments surrounding the Raiders' quarterback situation makes this game a bit more difficult to pick than it was three weeks ago. Let's take a look at what the experts are saying about the Jets' chances to starting the season 1-0 (according to ESPN, FOX, CBSSports and Bleacher Report).

Expert Predictions
ExpertOutletPick
Matt BowenBleacher ReportJets
Mike FreemanBleacher ReportJets
Michael SchotteyBleacher ReportJets
Matt MillerBleacher ReportJets
Chris SimmsBleacher ReportJets
Mike TanierBleacher ReportRaiders
Tom JacksonESPNJets
Chris CarterESPNJets
Mike DitkaESPNJets
Merril HogeESPNJets
Peter SchragerFOXJets
Jason LaCanforaCBSRaiders
Pete PriscoCBSJets
Will BrinsonCBSJets
Ryan WilsonCBSJets
Neil GreenbergWashington PostJets
Bleacher Report, ESPN, CBSSports, FOX Sports

With a few exceptions, the Jets are virtually a unanimous pick to emerge victorious—for good reason. The Jets have a superior player listed at just about every position on the roster. CBSSports' Pete Prisco predicts that the Jets' talent along the defensive line, along with travel logistics, will be the deciding factors in the game:

Opening on the road is always tough. Opening across the country is even tougher. Opening against a good defensive front with a rookie quarterback is really tough. Geno Smith will do enough on offense to take it.

Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post agrees:

The Raiders will be the only team starting a rookie quarterback in Week 1, so I expect the Jets to blitz. And blitz. And blitz and blitz and blitz. Nose tackle Sheldon Richardson—who might be the best in the game at that position—and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson had 15 sacks, 14 quarterback hits and 56 hurries between them last season.

While the Raiders have added some young and talented players to both sides of the ball, they are simply either too young and unproven or too old and ineffective at key positions that will prevent them from having a meaningful season for the umpteenth year in a row. 

Offensively, the Jets have the better roster from head to toe. Carr gives the Raiders hope that he can elevate the play of this otherwise average group, just as they showed against the Seahawks last Thursday. 

Jets vs. Raiders Offense
PositionJets Starter(s)Raiders Starter(s)Edge
QuarterbackGeno SmithDerek CarrJets
Running BackChris Ivory, Chris JohnsonMaurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFaddenDraw
Left TackleD'Brickashaw FergusonDonald PennJets
Left GuardBrian WintersGabe JacksonRaiders
CenterNick MangoldStefen WisinewskiJets
Right GuardWillie ColonAustin HowardDraw
Right TackleBreno GiacominiKhalif BarnesJets
Tight EndJeff CumberlandDavid AusberryJets
Wide ReciverEric Decker, Jeremy KerleyAndre Holmes, Rod StreaterJets
NFL.com

In terms of position groups, the only place where the Raiders can compare to the Jets is at running back, assuming that Darren McFadden is healthy and Maurice Jones-Drew looks as explosive as he did in the preseason. He had 6.1 yards per carry with 5.7 yards after contact according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). 

Even at receiver, a longtime problem area for the Jets, Rex Ryan's squad has an advantage. Eric Decker is a better pass-catcher than any other player on the field. While mostly used as a slot receiver, Jeremy Kerley has been one of the few productive players on the Jets offense since he was drafted in 2011. 

Aug 28, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
USA TODAY Sports

The wild cards are the two young quarterbacks, particularly Carr. There is simply not enough evidence to determine whether or not Carr is truly capable of having a special rookie season or if last Thursday's offensive was just an anomaly. 

Factoring into the edge the Jets have at the most important position is the defenses they will be playing against. Carr was successful against Seattle's starters, but things won't get any easier going against a Jets front in a game that has real meaning to it.

Jets vs. Raiders Defense
PositionJets Starter(s)Raiders Starter(s)Edge
Defensive EndMuhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon RichardsonLamarr Woodley, Justin TuckJets
Defensive TackleDamon HarrisonPat Sims, Antonio SmithJets
Inside LinebackerDavid Harris, Demario DavisNick RoachJets
Outside LinebackerCalvin Pace, Quinton CoplesKhalil Mack, Sio MooreRaiders
CornerbackDarrin Walls, Antonio AllenTarell Brown, Carlos RogersRaiders
SafetyDawan Landry, Calvin PryorTyvon Branch, Charles WoodsonRaiders
NFL.com

The defensive side of the ball is a bit more even. While the Jets have the upper hand closer to the line of scrimmage, the Raiders have a slight edge in all aspects of pass defense, from outside linebacker to the secondary, even with former first-round pick D.J. Hayden on the PUP list.  

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - AUGUST 22:  Antonio Allen #39 of the New York Jets breaks up a pass inteded for Rueben Randle #82 of the New York Giants during the first quarter of a preseason game at MetLife Stadium on August 22, 2014 in East Rutherford, New Jerse
Will Schneekloth/Getty Images

The Jets' defensive secondary concerns is a theme that will follow them throughout the season. Starting the season against Carr will be a good early test to see just how much of a drop-off Antonio Allen and Darrin Walls are from the players who were expected to start the season, Dee Milliner and Dimitri Patterson.

These two defenses are comparable, but the Raiders are dependent on some unproven players like Khalil Mack to play major roles for them. 

Based on their 2013 records, this game looks like a shoo-in victory for the Jets—but taking a closer look at these two rosters reveals that these teams are not on completely different planets in terms of talent level. 

The Raiders are still long away from serious contention, but they have made significant roster improvements over the offseason now that they are finally starting to pull away from the overbearing contracts from the Al Davis era. Time will tell just how well general manager Reggie McKenzie was able to utilize his new-found resources, but there is a strong chance that the 2014 Raiders will be a much-improved squad over the 2013 group. 

Again, the X-factor in this game will be the performance of Derek Carr. If Ryan can do what he usually does to rookie quarterbacks, the Jets are in for a relaxing Sunday afternoon. 

On the other hand, if Carr makes the Jets defense look like the preseason version of the Seahawks, the Jets could find themselves on upset alert by mid-afternoon on Sunday.

 

Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).

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