The Kansas State Wildcats will open Big 12 conference play on the road against an Iowa State Cyclones team they have beaten six straight times and hope to extend their series winning streak.
However, only one of those six consecutive wins for Kansas State was decided by more than eight points, last year’s 41-7 home victory.
Point spread: The KSU Wildcats opened as 15.5-point favorites, but betting forced the number down to -12 by Wednesday; the total was 57 at Jack Trice Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
Odds Shark computer prediction: 44-19 KSU Wildcats
Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread
The Wildcats have obviously enjoyed a lot of recent success against the Cyclones, but they have also been playing very well overall. Kansas State has won seven of its last eight games overall dating back to last season to go along with a 7-3 mark against the spread in the team’s past 10, including a failed cover last week in a 55-16 rout of Stephen F. Austin as a 42-point favorite.
The Wildcats barely missed the cover in their season opener and could not have played much better outside of an interception thrown by quarterback Jake Waters, who also completed 19 of 28 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns before giving way to backup Joe Hubener.
They are riding a profitable 14-4 ATS run in Big 12 play.
Why the Iowa State Cyclones can cover the spread
All the trends seem to go against Iowa State here, so it’s hard to fathom how this team can pull off the upset against Kansas State. However, the Cyclones are coming off a 34-14 home loss to the same North Dakota State team that upset their opponent 24-21 on the road last year.
There’s no shame in losing to the Bison, who have won 25 straight games and three consecutive national championships at the FCS level. In fact, the Wildcats rebounded for a big win and cover the following week last season, proving that a loss like that can serve as motivation instead.
Iowa State will need plenty of that and will try to use the home field to its advantage. Kansas State dropped its first two road games a year ago and could have trouble covering double digits.
The Wildcats have gone 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 road games, and head coach Bill Snyder will remind them that the Cyclones should not be overlooked in this spot.
Iowa State’s first four losses last year were all decided by eight points or less, but they collapsed in their next three games after that, falling by a combined 129 points.
The Cyclones have seen games get out of control early on them, and they trailed Kansas State 41-0 last year before finally scoring with 3:24 remaining. They hung in there last week against North Dakota State, down just 17-14 at halftime, but were blanked 17-0 after the intermission.
That inability to adjust gives Kansas State a major edge to not only win but also cover, especially with Snyder on the sidelines.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of six recent meetings at Iowa State.
- Kansas State is 14-4 ATS in its past 18 conference games.
Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds-tracker app.