Can Iman Shumpert Finally Move from Potential to Sure Thing This Season?
September 7, 2014
Iman Shumpert’s career can be summed up in a single word: potential.
After getting drafted by the New York Knicks with the 17th overall pick in 2011, the 24-year-old guard has failed to realize the immense promise he showed during his rookie campaign.
It’s been three years—how long can one guy have potential?
Though he hasn't been spectacular, Shumpert is no scrub. The 6’5” swingman is an all-out hustler and one of the NBA’s better perimeter defenders. If the ball is on the floor, you can bet that a flat-top will be scraping the hardwood in a matter of seconds.
Through his first three seasons, Shumpert has averaged pedestrian numbers—7.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game. He's also showcased crazy athleticism, undying passion and good ball-handling and rebounding skills.
Numbers don’t lie. Shumpert, despite all of his potential, has been an average player whose scoring stats have declined each year he's been in the league. That trend should be going the opposite way.
Heading into his fourth season, Shumpert has a different offense that will be run under the guidance of president of basketball operations Phil Jackson, a new coach in Derek Fisher and a growing mountain of expectations to live up to.
This could very well be the year that Shumpert finally makes good on his potential. But what’s more likely: the explosive season we’ve been waiting three years for or yet another disappointment?
The Case for a Breakout Year
Shumpert was drafted as a point guard but mostly played shooting guard as a rookie. After tearing his ACL in the 2011-12 postseason, Shumpert returned to New York in mid-January, about eight months after tearing the ligament, and bounced between shooting guard and small forward.
Last season, he started 74 games at shooting guard but played a lot of small forward, too. He deserves a chance to pinpoint a position before we write him off completely, doesn’t he?
Last season, coach Mike Woodson struggled to find a way to maximize Shump’s offensive talents. The 220-pound swingman is as strong as his hair is tall (when he grows it out) and can use his strength to get to the rim almost at will.
But Tim Hardaway Jr. shot his way into the picture last year, diminishing the need to play Shumpert around the three-point line. Thanks to Hardaway, Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith, there weren’t enough outside shots to go around for Shump last year.
Over the summer, Shumpert told Howie Kussoy of the New York Post that he’ll be better in NY’s new triangle offense:
There’s constant action going on. I think I’ll be able to capitalize off that and I’ll be able to use my athleticism a lot more than standing in the corner. ... I know this year, this offense, I’ll have a lot more opportunities to cut and get to the basket, so I just want to work on the strength in my leg and be able to jump off and be comfortable.
Woodson's offense revolved around isolation play and perimeter shots. Fisher's system, which will be run under the guidance of Phil Jackson, is going to feature an increase in ball movement and drives to the tin.
In other words, we'll see less of Melo and J.R.'s one-on-one extravaganza and more opportunities for Shumpert, Hardaway and other Knicks to put up points.
Here's another thing to keep in mind throughout the year: No. 21 is set to hit free agency next summer.
Though he’ll be a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer of nearly $4 million already set by the Knicks, a big year will result in a nice payday.
The Case for a Forgettable Year
While the triangle will probably allow for a bigger role, Shumpert needs to drastically improve his shooting.
Sure, he might be open with more frequency. But what happens when nothing falls?
B/R’s Sean Hojnacki has more on that topic:
Though Shumpert has never been a particularly gifted shooter (39.6 percent from the field over three years at Georgia Tech), his efficiency has regressed in his time with the Knicks. Here are his shooting percentages listed chronologically by season: 40.1, 39.6 and 37.8 on field goals; 30.6, 40.2 and 33.3 on three-pointers; 79.8, 76.6 and 74.6 on free throws.
While Shumpert certainly expends the majority of his energy playing defense, those shooting numbers are borderline unacceptable. Even at the rim, he shot just 53.6 percent, raising questions about his finishing ability. He shot 23.3 percent from three to 10 feet and 29.2 percent from 10 to 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.
The Knicks have dangled Shumpert as trade bait, almost excessively, over the course of the past two years. However, according to Marc Berman of the Post, Shumpert would appear to be safe with Jackson at the helm of basketball operations.
Back on March 16, Berman reported that “according to a league source, Jackson is a fan of Shumpert.”
Fan or not, Jackson will not hesitate to trade Shumpert if the right offer comes along.
When Jackson dealt Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton to the Dallas Mavericks in return for a package that included Jose Calderon and a pick that turned into Cleanthony Early, he proved that no Knick other than Melo is truly safe.
Don’t be surprised if more rumors involving Shumpert begin to heat up as the season goes on. And don’t be surprised if the fourth-year man struggles as a result.
Trade rumblings aside, the continued rise of Hardaway's game may push Shumpert further down in the depth chart.
Hardaway put forth a sensational rookie season in 2013-14, averaging 10.2 points on 49.8 percent shooting from two-point range and 36.3 percent from downtown. He played 23.1 minutes a night.
Surely, Hardaway will expand his game to more than just catching and firing in 2014-15, which means that Shumpert will have to fight even harder for minutes at shooting guard.
As he’s always done, Shumpert will hang his hat on the defensive end, where he's worlds ahead of Hardaway.
His quick, physical presence will make him the Knicks’ go-to option on defense, but it's likely that Shumpert will become the odd man out at the other end.
What Does This Year Hold?
Maybe Shumpert has been misunderstood throughout his whole career and this potential that surrounds him is merely a mirage.
Perhaps he’s just an ordinary player with a cool haircut. Perhaps he’ll never be a star, but rather a solid fifth or sixth option off the bench.
Shumpert’s brand of basketball would be more suited for a contender like the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs. He works hard and defends with valor, but he struggles on the offensive end.
Shumpert could very well have a breakout season in 2013-14. It’s going to take vastly improved shooting, but it’s not entirely impossible.
What’s more likely, though, is another mediocre year with stats identical to what they've been during his whole career.
You know what three years in the league and three average seasons add up to?
An average player.
And that’s what Shumpert is. The potential and the “he’s going to be really good” thoughts will be dead and gone after this season. While the triangle might bolster his looks, he's simply not a great scorer.
More chances don't necessarily equate to more success. Scoring is not his game.
Shumpert will be a good role player—both this season and for the rest of career—who specializes in defending and doing the dirty work.
Don’t hold your breath waiting on him to evolve into anything more than that.
All stats and contract information are accurate courtesy of Basketball Reference and Spotrac, respectively.
Related
Cavs Focused on Home Stretch, Not Kyrie Injury
Kerr Calls Warriors Performance vs. Pacers 'Embarrassing'
Wall Says He Doesn't Get Same Calls as LeBron