UFC 177: TJ Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao 2 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Nathan McCarter@McCarterNFeatured ColumnistAugust 28, 2014

UFC 177: TJ Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao 2 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

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    USA TODAY Sports

    UFC 177 heads to Team Alpha Male country on Saturday. The Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, California, plays host to the next UFC event.

    Team Alpha Male member and UFC bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw defends the title against Renan Barao in the main event.

    Dillashaw won the belt from Barao back in May at UFC 173. It was one of the biggest title upsets since Matt Serra defeated Georges St-Pierre. Due to Barao's dominance prior to the fight, the UFC awarded him an immediate rematch.

    The co-main event also features a Team Alpha Male fighter. Danny Castillo battles Tony Ferguson in a lightweight scrap.

    We will take a look at the betting odds for each of the five main card bouts to help give you the best information leading to the event. Let's jump right into the action that will come your way this weekend.

Yancy Medeiros (-120) vs. Damon Jackson (-110)

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    Yancy Medeiros welcomes Damon Jackson to the UFC in the first bout of the pay-per-view.

    Jackson is a solid, undefeated prospect. Medeiros is 0-2 with one no-contest inside the Octagon. The one no-contest was initially a KO victory over Yves Edwards, but it was overturned after a failed test (marijuana) following the fight.

    This will be a great fight to see where each fighter is at. With the bright lights shining, I have to side with the vet in this contest. Medeiros has had a rough UFC tenure against excellent competition. This is finally a fight where he can shine.

    Jackson can make an impression, but I don't think he'll get the nod. At minus-120, there is good value on Medeiros leading into Saturday. Take advantage.

    Prediction: Medeiros

    The Play: Lay down on Medeiros

Ramsey Nijem (+165) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (-205)

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    Ramsey Nijem has looked stellar in his last two outings, but he will have a rough matchup on Saturday.

    Carlos Diego Ferreira is 10-0 and made a successful UFC debut against Colton Smith in June. It was a quick rear-naked choke submission victory.

    Nijem shows flashes of excellence from time to time, but he's struggled with consistency. He is 5-3 under the UFC banner.

    Look for Ferreira to not have as quick of an outing this go around, but he will still pick up the victory. Nijem will struggle with Ferreira's grappling in this fight, and it will go the full 15. As for the betting odds, getting Nijem at plus-165 is enticing, but I'd still side with Ferreira.

    Prediction: Ferreira

    The Play: A small play on Ferreira

Bethe Correia (-140) vs. Shayna Baszler (+110)

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    Bethe Correia came into the UFC as a relative unknown, and she debuted with a big victory over longtime MMA vet Julie Kedzie.

    Correia then defeated Jessamyn Duke. After the fight, Correia showed the camera four fingers, then placed one down. It was a clear signal that she intended to take out each member of the "Four Horsewomen"—Ronda Rousey, Marina Shafir, Shayna Baszler and Duke—en route to the title. Granted, Shafir is not signed to the UFC, nor is she in the bantamweight division.

    Hence, we have Correia vs. Baszler.

    Baszler is a fantastic submission fighter and has not fought since suffering an upset loss on The Ultimate Fighter to eventual winner Julianna Pena. We will get to see a fresh and improved Baszler, and that is why getting her at plus-110 is magnificent value.

    Correia is a well-rounded fighter, but Baszler isn't Duke. She has fought the best of the best, and now she is ready to step back in the cage as a healthy fighter. Baszler should be the favorite, but that gives all of you a great chance to cash in on the oddsmakers' misstep.

    Prediction: Baszler

    The Play: Play Baszler, big

Tony Ferguson (-260) vs. Danny Castillo (+200)

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    Tony Ferguson is 5-1 with two straight wins in the UFC. He is coming off two finishes and looking to step up in the lightweight division.

    Danny Castillo is a winner in three of his last four outings, with a lone loss via majority decision to Edson Barboza.

    Ferguson is the better striker between the two, but Castillo has knockout power as well. Castillo has a better wrestling game than Ferguson, but Ferguson has excellent takedown defense. It is an even matchup that will be decided by who can dictate where the fight takes place.

    I lean toward Castillo.

    At Team Alpha Male, he has developed into a quality lightweight with good strikes. He can do enough standing that will make his takedowns come easier. Castillo ekes out a decision. At plus-200, there is tremendous value here.

    Prediction: Castillo

    The Play: Take a flier on Castillo

UFC Bantamweight Championship: TJ Dillashaw (-155) vs. Renan Barao (+125)

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    Dillashaw put together the performance of the year against Barao earlier this year, but can he do it again?

    I think so.

    I would not have believed I would ever utter those words, but it was how he beat Barao that changed my mind.

    The speed and movement, reminiscent of former champion Dominick Cruz, completely befuddled Barao. Dillashaw had his way with the champion before finishing the fight. Barao had no answer. Dillashaw was faster and more accurate. I don't know if Barao can force Dillashaw into a box on Saturday.

    With that said, Barao had an incredible 33-fight unbeaten streak for a reason. He is very well rounded with knockout power and great submissions. If he can force Dillashaw to stand in front of him, he can win the fight.

    He is a slight underdog, and that may be worthy of a small play. Dillashaw is also worthy of a play at only minus-155, but I'd rather take the risk on Barao to pay off in a slightly bigger way. If you are going to go with Dillashaw, it may be better to wait until fight day to gander at the prop bets for better value.

    Prediction: Dillashaw

    The Play: Take a small chance on Barao

     

    All odds provided by OddsShark.com.