The Auburn Tigers could not have played much better than they did during last year’s surprisingly good regular-season run, going 12-1 straight up and 11-2 against the spread.
Meanwhile, the Arkansas Razorbacks could not have played much worse in 2013 with a 3-9 record straight up—including a nine-game losing streak to close out the season—and a 4-8 mark against the spread. Auburn has been awesome within the SEC, while Arkansas has been awful.
Point spread: Tigers opened as 21-point favorites; the total was 57.5 at Jordan-Hare Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 40.4-17.4 Tigers
Why the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover the spread
The Razorbacks probably wish they did not have to open 2014 against the Tigers after losing to them at home 35-17 last year in Week 10. Arkansas went 0-8 SU in SEC play and 3-5 ATS, covering two of the last three on the road at LSU and Ole Miss.
This team is just 3-12 ATS in its past 15 road games overall but has fared well vs the line at Jordan-Hare Stadium, going 5-2 ATS in the last seven trips there. None of the last three meetings between the teams have been decided by more than 20 points, so maybe Arkansas can keep it within the big number of three touchdowns.
Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread
Auburn may seem to have a bit of a disadvantage to start the game, as quarterback Nick Marshall was suspended for a violation of team rules. But while Jeremy Johnson will get the starting nod ahead of him, Marshall is still expected to play and will likely put up big numbers when he does get into the game in an effort to boost his early Heisman Trophy campaign.
In the last meeting, Marshall completed seven of eight passes for 118 yards and one touchdown and added nine rushes for 59 yards on the ground. Former running back Tre Mason was the star of the game with 168 yards rushing and four touchdowns.
The Razorbacks will not need to deal with the NFL-bound Mason here, which means he will obviously not get the opportunity to chew up the clock. Instead, expect them to test Auburn’s defense, a similar one to the unit that got burned late by Florida State in last year’s 34-31 BCS National Championship Game loss.
While Arkansas’ offense will never be confused for the Seminoles, the team has a fresh slate in 2014, and the Tigers definitely overachieved in making it as far as they did last year. Look for the Razorbacks to do just enough to hang in this one and grab the cover, giving their fans some hope for the new season.
- Auburn 8-0 ATS past eight conference games
- Arkansas 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS past dozen games within SEC
Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.