JACK DEMPSEY/Associated Press
Peyton Manning is staring you in the face late in the first round, or you are sitting on $186 in your $200 auction, hovering over the "bid" button at $43. What do you do?
The answer is you let him pass, unless you are playing in a two-quarterback league.
True, in some ways this directly contradicts the previous slide. Why not go after the top scoring quarterback in the league, cost be damned?
The difference between drafting the top quarterback rather than the top tight end or an elite player at another position—should he fall to you—is positional scarcity.
There is a massive drop-off between Jimmy Graham and the rest of the league save, perhaps, a healthy Rob Gronkowski in New England. That is not the case with Peyton Manning or any of the other elite quarterbacks.
That is, of course, unless you expect Manning to repeat his record-breaking shenanigans from a year ago. He might be great, but expecting that kind of output is like betting on the same lottery numbers with which you just won.
While it's certainly true that Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will likely outscore the rest of the field if healthy, there are plenty of quality quarterbacks you can take later in drafts who will score well.
Take Russell Wilson, for example. If the preseason is any indication, the Seattle Seahawks starter is primed for a big season, particularly with a finally healthy Percy Harvin as a weapon. Even Wilson thinks he's in for a big improvement this season, per Clare Farnsworth of Seahawks.com:
It’s been an exceptional offseason for me so far, in terms of getting prepared for football. My body feels great. My arm feels really strong. My knowledge of the game has just grown so much more – exponentially more, I believe, from Year 1 to Year 2 and then from Year 2 to Year 3.
He has the ability to score fantasy points with his legs too, which helps him make up some of the difference with the top guys.