UFC

UFC Fight Night 48 and 49 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Nathan McCarterFeatured ColumnistAugust 21, 2014

UFC Fight Night 48 and 49 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

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    Anthony Kwan/Getty Images

    The UFC returns this Saturday with two fight cards. UFC Fight Night 48 hits Macau in China, and UFC Fight Night 49 takes place in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

    UFC Fight Night 48 is headlined by Cung Le vs. Michael Bisping in a middleweight contest, and UFC Fight Night 49's main event is a top-five battle in the lightweight division between Rafael dos Anjos and Benson Henderson.

    Eight other main card tilts in total will take place over the course of Saturday.

    This breakdown will assist you in your attempts to identify the best value this weekend. Let's get right to looking at the odds for this weekend's cards.

Ning Guangyou (+160) vs. Yang Jianping (-200)

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    Anonymous/Associated Press

    These two fighters are largely unknowns, and that is not conducive to laying down a bet.

    There is too much risk.

    Who is going to win? I have to side with the oddsmakers for this bout. Even with that said, I don't think there is enough value to warrant a bet.

    Main card showdowns between unproven commodities are the downside to UFC Fight Pass cards.

    Prediction: Jianping

    The Play: Avoid the contest

Zhang Lipeng (+125) vs. Brendan O’Reilly (-155)

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    Xaume Olleros/Getty Images

    This won't be an easy matchup for Lipeng, but I believe all the external factors will play a big role in the outcome.

    Travel alone will take a lot out of O'Reilly. Lipeng doesn't have to worry about that, and he will be the fresher fighter come fight day.

    There is a good chance to grab Lipeng as a slight underdog.

    Prediction: Lipeng

    The Play: Score on Lipeng

Tyron Woodley (-185) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (+150)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Tyron Woodley is a fantastic wrestler, but his chin often lets him down. I expect more of the same against Kim this weekend.

    Kim has excellent takedown defense, good grappling and knockout power in his hands. All bad news for Woodley.

    Woodley can score repeated takedowns to take the fight to the scorecards, but I don't see Kim allowing that to happen for 15 minutes.

    Take a chance on Kim ending this fight at plus-150. You should see a return.

    Prediction: Kim

    The Play: Kim

Cung Le (+240) vs. Michael Bisping (-310)

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    Anthony Kwan/Getty Images

    Perhaps I am just not a believer in Cung Le, but I don't see the value here.

    Sure, he is more than a 2-1 underdog in this fight, but it is hard to see how he defeats Bisping to earn the victory. There is simply too much risk to go after Le's value here.

    Bisping is a cardio machine, and Le is not. Simply put, Bisping's volume and pressure will create havoc for the talented striker and result in a one-sided main event in Macau.

    Look for Bisping to win by stoppage once Le gasses out.

    Prediction: Bisping

    The Play: Avoid the fight

Chas Skelly (+115) vs. Tom Niinimaki (-145)

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    Markus Schreiber/Associated Press

    The opening contest of the evening card should be exciting.

    I have to favor Vegas' favorite in this bout. At minus-145, there is good value on Niinimaki.

    Niinimaki is a fantastic grappler. Expect him to control this fight, and that is all that is needed against Skelly.

    If you can find better value on a prop bet for the finish, I would advise you to go for that as well.

    Prediction: Niinimaki

    The Play: A hard play on Niinimaki

James Vick (-160) vs. Walmir Lazaro (+130)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    I expect this fight to be a showcase for James Vick. That is why I am a bit surprised by how close the odds are.

    That gives you the opportunity to pounce on the odds.

    At minus-160, there is a lot of value on Vick. He is a competent fighter who should be able to take care of business on Saturday. Go with the slight favorite and reap the rewards.

    Prediction: Vick

    The Play: Vick all the way

Max Holloway (-450) vs. Clay Collard (+325)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Holloway has looked stellar in recent outings, and he will once again this weekend.

    However, at minus-450 there isn't any value to be had in this fight.

    Holloway will win. He will look impressive in doing so. You should not bet the fight straight up.

    If you are able to find good prop bets on a Holloway finish, then that is your best bet if you must lay a few bucks on the action. Otherwise, you are wasting your time. Find better value on the weekend's action.

    Prediction: Holloway

    The Play: No value

Francis Carmont (-160) vs. Thales Leites (+130)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Carmont had a rough go in his last outing against Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, and Thale Leites is another top-tier grappler.

    Leites just isn't as good or athletic as Jacare, and that is the biggest reason you should stick with the favorite.

    Carmont will be able to stifle the takedowns, and he will be able to score points. Leites has looked good since returning to the UFC, but Carmont is one of the better fighters in the division. At minus-160, there is good value for you to play the favorite.

    It may not be sexy to side with the favorite, but the odds this weekend will have you playing it safe.

    Prediction: Carmont

    The Play: Stay with Carmont

Mike Pyle (+190) vs. Jordan Mein (-240)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    I have never been very high on Jordan Mein, but the young prospect should be able to get the win this weekend.

    So, why am I telling you to play Pyle?

    Pyle is a very tough welterweight who has never gotten the respect he deserves in the division. Also, his style is one that can give Mein problems. If he is able to rough up the young prospect, then he will win this fight.

    Mein has trouble with that. Ask Matt Brown.

    Mein's progression should show through, but the value on Pyle is too good not to take a chance on him. He is one of the few live dogs on the card—don't pass up the opportunity.

    Prediction: Mein

    The Play: Roll the dice with Pyle

Benson Henderson (-365) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+275)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    This main event should be one-sided, and that is why you should avoid the tilt.

    Dos Anjos is a credible fighter—hence the No. 5 ranking. Henderson is just a horrific matchup for the contender. The No. 1-ranked lightweight contender will cruise to victory over Dos Anjos.

    Henderson has a style that will completely nullify Dos Anjos throughout the contest. The bad part for you is that there is little-to-no value in playing Henderson as such a large favorite.

    Grab some popcorn and enjoy the contest. Don't bet on it.

    Prediction: Henderson

    The Play: Avoid the fight

     

    All odds provided by Odds Shark.

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