Fantasy analysts hate picking quarterbacks. They love Nick Foles.
After Foles threw for 27 touchdowns to just two interceptions in his first partial season as his team's clear No. 1 quarterback, there potentially is a lot to love. We thought that love would lead to excessive expectations and risk of fantasy disappointment.
Thankfully, the fantasy public is bringing some much-needed perspective to Foles' draft value.
Foles is No. 6 in the FantasyPros.com consensus rankings. He is ranked ahead of steady, accomplished veterans Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. Also, high-ceiling, mobile quarterbacks Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick are looking up at Foles in those rankings, despite the fact Foles still hasn't been a full-year starter for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Foles is just No. 9 in FantasyPro.com's ADP, which is far more reasonable relative to the other intriguing options on that board. We listed Foles as the bust in B/R's QB blueprint earlier this month, but if he falls to the 10th round like he did in Saturday's FLEX draft in NYC, forget about the bust talk.
There is no such thing as a late-round bust. Those guys are value picks. It is the early round quarterbacks you have to worry about going bust.
Potential Age-Related Busts
The old quarterbacks are the ones we tend to draft sooner. They are also a greater risk for injury and likelier to need more time to recover. Here are the top busts relative to draft position and age:
- Peyton Manning (38 years old)
- Drew Brees (35)
- Tom Brady (37)
- Tony Romo (34)
- Eli Manning (33)
Potential Injury Concerns
You don't have to be older to be an injury risk, though. The following are the quarterbacks for whom you will need to accept some risk when picking and likely lock up a solid backup as insurance:
- Cam Newton (ankle): Also dealing with a revamped receiving corps.
- Robert Griffin III (knee): Slight stature (6'2", 222 pounds) and his style also put him at risk.
- Jay Cutler (various): Hasn't played a 16-game season since 2009.
- Sam Bradford (shoulder/knee): He's healthy now, but injury history suggests that won't last.
- EJ Manuel (knee): He hasn't been impressive in training camp.
Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.