2014 NFL Season Win-Total Odds: Stock Rising and Falling

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2014 NFL Season Win-Total Odds: Stock Rising and Falling
Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Sportsbooks initially release their projected win total for all 32 NFL teams soon after the NFL Draft, along with a set of betting moneylines for “over” and “under” that total.

While you usually will not see any monumental changes in the projected wins for each team once the number is set, there can be some significant movement on a certain team’s moneyline odds based on the reaction from the betting public.

Using Doc’s Sports 2014 NFL futures odds as a guide, here is an updated look at which teams' stock is rising and which teams' stock is headed in the wrong direction when it comes to wagering on its projected wins for the 2014 regular season.

 

Stock is Rising

One of the teams at the top of this list would be the New England Patriots. Early odds set their win total at 10.5, with the moneyline favoring the over at 2-3. The moneyline on the under was set at 6-5.

The betting public has driven the number of wins to 11, and the moneyline still favors the over at 5-7. While this heightens the chance for a “push” at 11 wins, this is still a solid bet given the past history of this team under head coach Bill Belichick.

He took over the reins in New England in 2000, and his team that season won just five games. Since then, the Patriots have eclipsed the 10-win mark in 10 of the last 13 seasons, and they have not fallen below 12 wins in their last four seasons.

Another team that has gotten an upward push since the odds were first released has been the Philadelphia Eagles.

They went 10-6 in Chip Kelly’s first season as head coach, which was good enough to win the NFC East last year. When the odds first came out, their win total was set at 9.0. But the moneyline at the time favored the under at 10-13 odds while the moneyline on the over was an even 1-1.

Philadelphia’s current win total remains right at nine games, but the moneyline has swung in the entirely opposite direction with a 5-7 line on the over and 11-10 odds for a play on the under.

Nothing has dramatically changed with the team since mid-May, but a few of the football experts have been touting this team as a potential sleeper in both the NFC title picture and the Super Bowl, and the betting public is obviously reacting to the positive vibe.

 

Stock is Falling

The Eagles rise could also have something to do with the downturn in the win-total odds for both the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. The Cowboys opened as solid second-favorites to win the NFC East this season after coming so painfully close the last three seasons.

Their projected win total was set at eight, with the moneyline favoring the under at 2-3. The moneyline of the over for the Cowboys was set at 6-5.

The current moneyline for Dallas now heavily favors the under at 4-7, and the entire win total has dropped a game to seven. Offseason injuries on defense have not helped the cause, and the jury is still out on just how healthy quarterback Tony Romo really is coming off major back surgery.

The moneyline odds for the Giants opened at 20-23 odds on both the over and under for eight wins. The total has remained the same, but the betting public has driven the current moneyline slightly in favor of the under at 4-5 while the line on the over has dropped to 20-21.

While the overall change in these betting odds is not that dramatic, they are moving in the wrong direction for a team that is just three seasons removed from winning a Super Bowl title.

Two preseason games and two blowout losses have helped turn the tide for the betting moneylines on San Francisco’s projected win total this year. It opened at 10.5 wins, with the moneyline favoring the over at 10-13. The moneyline on the under was an even-money 1-1.

The latest board at Doc’s Sports has the projected win total for the 49ers listed at 10 wins, with the moneyline now favoring the under at 10-13 odds. The moneyline on the over is an even-money 1-1.

One thing that probably caused this line move involves the sheer difficulty of staying at the top of your game after enduring three straight heartbreaking losses in the last three seasons—two in the NFC title game wrapped around a loss in the Super Bowl.

The other factor is the highly competitive environment that exists in the NFC West. Seattle is the reigning Super Bowl Champion, Arizona is coming off a 10-win season and St. Louis is a team on the rise in Jeff Fisher’s third season at the helm as head coach.

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