Let me explain. I'm an Adam Dunn fan. I'm a Ken Griffey Jr. fan. AND I'm a Cincinnati Reds fan. So my headline probably doesn't make much sense, does it? The sad truth though is that the headline is entirely true.
Adam Dunn is hitting about .220 right now. But, he still leads the team in OBP, and his strikeouts this season are significantly down. Dunn is one of the best players on the Reds, even while slumping. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see him get his average to about .260, but he's not the only reason the Reds are losing right now.
Griffey, well ... he's Griffey. He's a legend, especially in Cincinnati where he grew up. When he's healthy, he's going to hit 30 home runs and have 100 RBIs. He's slumping a bit right now also, hitting around .235, but he's going to end the season around .265, so he's still productive. The question then becomes, why get rid of the two biggest bats in Cincinnati?
It's all about the money. The Reds have a club option on Griffey next season for $16 million. Dunn will be a free agent at the end of the year, and most accounts have him earning around $13 million a year on the market. How can the Reds justify spending about $30 million dollars next season on these two players? They can't. Griffey is at the twilight of his Hall of Fame career, and he's not going into Cooperstown as a Red. He'll always be a Mariner, so there isn't room to pay Griffey $16 million for sentimentality. Dunn is a one-tool player. He can hit for power. He can't run and doesn't play great defense. His arm is average and he can't hit for average. The Reds need that $30 million to invest in their future.
Next year, the Reds will pay Jay Bruce $400,000 a year to replace Griffey in right field. Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, and Joey Votto have all had experience in left field. Any one of them could replace Dunn and be a defensive upgrade. Sure, you're going to lose some of Dunn's home runs, but can't we use that $30 million to upgrade our pitching? Maybe add another quality bat to the lineup? $30 million can buy quite a bit of production these days.
The 2008 Reds currently aren't in contention to make the playoffs. Unless they capture lightning in a bottle from their young pitching staff, it's likely they aren't going to reach the playoffs. Can the Reds really afford to let Griffey and Dunn go without getting anything in return?
Griffey is a Mariner for life. Seattle loves him. Ticket sales would skyrocket if he went back to the great Northwest. More importantly, Griffey loves Seattle. Because he has a no trade clause, he can veto any potential move. But he'd go back to Seattle, no question. Let's send Griffey back to Seattle for a prospect, maybe two. Heck, let's send Griffey back to Seattle simply to let them take the remainder of his contract this season. That would put about $10 million back in the Reds pocket, and maybe they can use that, with the $30 million from next season and invest in a few big time players.
As for Dunn, he's an American League player. Let's send him to a contender and get a couple prospects in return. Let's look to next year. In Cincinnati, next year is what we're always looking toward as a fan. Maybe this time next year will come true.
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2 months ago
People that think the Reds could get value for Junior from Seattle amuse me. Seattle is not a contender - not this year, not next year. So they'd have no incentive to (a) trade anything of value for Ken Griffey Jr, or (b) pay him the remainder of this year's salary. Any deal they make would involve the Reds eating a significant portion of his salary. His unattractive 2009 option only ensures that they won't give up any real prospects.
The idea that ticket sales would "skyrocket" is laughable. Griffey's return to Seattle would probably create excitement for a brief moment - probably until he reaches 600 HR's. But no way would it make a significant dent in their 2008 ticket revenues. He's not 24 years old anymore. He's an old, overpaid designated hitter. People aren't going to flock to Safeco to watch Griffey get 4 AB's a night and sit in the dugout.
The Reds best option would be to trade him to a true contender as soon as possible. Find a team that has realistic hopes of making the playoffs and needs left-handed pop at the plate. The best Cincy can hope for is that someone eats most of his salary, because they're not going to get any talent in return. Wherever Griffey ends up, they won't be picking up his option in 2009 so he's essentially going to be a rental player for a few months.
Adam Dunn has a no-trade until June 15th. $13 million a year is what he's making now, so he certainly isn't out of the Reds price range - especially considering Griffey's salary coming off their books. I wouldn't be suprised to see the Reds make a run at extending Dunn - I also wouldn't be surprised to see him traded at the deadline. Either way, I don't imagine Dunn has much trade value. I think it might actually be better to let him walk and get the two draft picks.
2 months ago
When Cincinnati went to Seattle last year --- Safeco was crazy. Seattle really appreciates what Griffey did for them over the years, and they'd take him back. They'd recover their investment in ticket sales for sure. In addition, Seattle is likely who Griffey is going to sign with next year, so the option isn't really an issue. AND, Seattle does have a chance this year at the playoffs.
Dunn actually has LOTS of value. He hits 40 home runs per year, and scores lots of runs, gets lots of walks, and drives in a decent amount of runs. The major issue is that he's not as valuable in Cincinnati b/c he costs more than the Reds are willing to invest in a winning team. If you only pay 1 or 2 $13 million players, it shouldn't be done.
2 months ago
"When Cincinnati went to Seattle last year --- Safeco was crazy."
No shit - of course it was crazy, it was his first and only trip back to Seattle. Everyone expected sellouts.
"They'd recover their investment in ticket sales for sure."
Fans don't come to the ballpark in droves to watch an overweight 38 year-old former superstar bat 4 times as the DH and then sit in the dugout for a mediocre team. Never have, never will. His homecoming would create an initial buzz, but it would die down.
"In addition, Seattle is likely who Griffey is going to sign with next year, so the option isn't really an issue."
Says who? Griffey said it himself - he wants to play for a contender. Seattle is not a contender. They're a mediocre team.
"AND, Seattle does have a chance this year at the playoffs."
It's hilarious that you believe that. Truly hilarious.
"Dunn actually has LOTS of value."
He produces, but he's a one-tool guy - nobody's going to give up any real value for him. Maybe a future #5 starter.
2 months ago
I disagree with dumping Dunn, yes his batting average isn't anywhere new where the Reds want it to be but he is leading the team in walks and OBP which is far more important than batting average (ask Billy Beane about that). I find it hard to believe that the Reds will get anything of value if they trade Griffey, as teams will balk at the remainder of his contract. But at this point with top prospects Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs waiting in the wings I think the Reds will make an active attempt to dump Griffey and put up a competitive offer at resigning Dunn. The Reds desperately need pitching so if they are able to get any decent prospects for Griffey I assume they will take that offer.
2 months ago
Dunn is a very good player. How many guys hit 40 home runs per year, drive in 100 runs, score 100 runs, and are top 5 in walks every year. He's an asset to any team. I mean, currently he's hitting .220 and still has about a .390 OBP. The issue is that the REDS can't really afford to pay a player like Dunn $13 million dollars.
Baseball is all relative. The Reds are a small market team, and can use that $13 million to allocate to another position. It's not about what you get for Dunn when you trade him, although I think you can get a decent prospect. It's about the money the Reds will free up to pay another player.
Seattle is only 14-19 --- so you can say they have no chance if you want. It's hard to argue my position on that. BUT, the Mariners are only 6.5 games out, and Bedard has missed some starts. As soon as he's back in the rotation and pitching well, you have Bedard and Hernandez who make that rotation pretty good. Add Griffey to the lineup, either in the outfield, or as a DH, and I think they team is upgraded. In addition, we all know the A's aren't going to continue doing this well. The issue is if they can catch the Angels, which might be tough.
However, I can just about guarantee that Griffey will be a Mariner next season, or he'll be retired. I think the only teams he'd be willing to play for are Seattle, Cincinnati, and Atlanta -- based on interviews I've heard here in Cincinnati. He might be willing to finish out a short season somewhere else this year, but I'm talking about who he'll sign with next year if he doesn't retire.
from 2 months ago
What makes you think the Reds can't afford $13 million a year when they're paying a relief pitcher $11.5 million a year to pitch 65 innings.
If you think Dunn is a very good player, you don't watch much baseball.
2 months ago
Dunn is good enough to command $13 million a year! Most people think that what they payed Cordero was a bit high also --- although he's pitched well in the opportunities he's had.
Their new owner has made more of a commitment to spending money, no doubt about it. BUT, any way you spin it the Reds still aren't a big market team. They're not going to have a $100 million payroll anytime soon, as much as I wish they would.
Because of that, I have to say that if you are going to have a finite amount of money to spend, it should be spent in a different direction than Dunn.
Jeff, I think you're trying to argue with me about some points that I'm not even arguing. I know Dunn IS in fact a good player, but I still don't want to Reds to spend the money on him. Like you said above, he is a one tool player so that makes it hard for the Reds to spend the money on him. With that said, I'm sure there will be several teams that are willing to spend that type of money to keep him around.
Here are the facts --- The Reds have 3 very talented (albeit young) pitchers that all three can be legitimate #1 guys in Harang, Cueto, and Volquez. However, Cueto is a 22-year old rookie who's going to have some bad outings this year. In addition, the Reds have Homer Bailey in the minors who's very young, and could end up being a decent pitcher. I don't think he's going to be a #1 or #2, but he could very well be a #3,4 or 5 starter. I'd bring him up this year and let him learn at the major league level.
After those four, the Reds have nothing but bums. I'd spend $13 million that Dunn commands and spend it on a legitimate ace pitcher. Can you image a staff with a #1, plus Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Bailey next season! Then, I'd spend the $16 million that they'd save on Griffey and try to get a couple young, quality players in the field. With those adjustments, they could be a legitimate contender, with a payroll around the price that Reds owners are willing to pay.
from 2 months ago
"Dunn is good enough to command $13 million a year! Most people think that what they payed Cordero was a bit high also --- although he's pitched well in the opportunities he's had."
I never said he wasn't good enough to command $13 million a year. It's pretty sad that he is, but that's the way baseball salaries are these days. And all things considered, I'd rather the Reds pay Dunn $13 million a year than Francisco Cordero $11.5 million a year. This Cordero signing is going to go down as one of the dumbest signings in Reds history, financially speaking. Not because he's a bad pitcher, but because they're a small market team that in all likelihood will not be contending for the playoffs anytime soon. So why is their highest (or 2nd highest) paid player a guy that only pitches 65 innings a year? That's the thing with the Reds front office - every now and then, they try and make a splash - their intentions are good, but their decision making is off. Kinda like when they went all out for Eric Milton a few years back. And extending Bronson Arroyo. Terrible decisions.
"I'm sure there will be several teams that are willing to spend that type of money to keep him around."
Oh they're out there. I'm very confident in saying that there will not be a "bidding war" among successful teams like New York, Boston, Arizona, etc. He'll get overpaid by some dumb team like Texas or Baltimore or the Dodgers - teams that spend money and never win anything. The successful teams won't go after him because they're well-run and smart and they probably realize that while Dunn posts impressive-looking stats, he rarely contributes to his team's success.
" I'd spend $13 million that Dunn commands and spend it on a legitimate ace pitcher."
That's a pretty idealistic way of thinking. What "legitimate ace pitcher" in his right mind is going to voluntarily go to Cincinnati for $13 million a year? A real staff ace will command 5 or 6 years at $15-20 million a year. And any true staff ace will draw interest from markets like New York and Los Angeles. The Reds will NEVER sign a "true ace" as a free agent. The more likely scenario if they spend Dunn's money on a pitcher is that they overpay a bad or decent pitcher (see Milton, Arroyo). You know who makes around $13 million a year? Carlos Silva, that's who. A guy of his caliber would be a good addition, but he is hardly an "ace".
The wave of the future is locking up good young players early in their career - it's happening everywhere. Tulowitzki in Colorado, Longoria in Tampa Bay, Carmona and Sizemore in Cleveland. You buy out their arbitration years and their first one or two years of free agency by giving them long-term deals as rookies or second-year players. That's what the Reds are going to have to consider doing to put together a respectable rotation. If they're going to spend Dunn & Junior's money on pitching, they should probably spend the bulk of it on the pitchers they already have - because they're not going to make any free agent splashes unless they get lucky. The Reds will always be fighting over the free agency scrap heap.
"Can you image a staff with a #1, plus Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Bailey next season!"
Arroyo will be in the rotation unless something is seriously wrong with his arm. When healthy and on his game, he is certainly good enough to be in the friggin' REDS rotation. And he'll be making too much money to not be given plenty of chances.
"After those four, the Reds have nothing but bums"
That's not accurate.
2 months ago
Jeff,
I agree with most of your points. However, Arroyo stinks. The Reds will never win if Arroyo is in the rotation. He's a guy that relied on junk and a below average fastball to get guys out. Now, most batters have locked onto his junk, and his fastball has slowed considerably.
As far teams being run well --- Boston and New York notoriously overpay for players, so I wouldn't necessarily call them well run. Look at the long term contracts that New York eats on a consistent basis. Randy Johnson, Mike Musina, Jason Giambi, et al.
With regards to the Reds rotation, they got Harang from Oakland in a trade. He's a very quality starter. Cueto and Volquez are both young, and could potentially be #1 starters. The Reds definitely need to lock them up longer term.
Then, as a #4 starter, I think Homer Bailey COULD be that guy. He hasn't proved it at the MLB level yet, but he's got the right stuff. Cincinnati media was making him out to be the next Reds ace, but I don't buy that. I'm just hoping he can be good, and give the Reds quality starts. If he can eat up innings and post a 4.00 ERA, he'll be a great addition to the rotation as a 4th or 5th guy.
NOW, the Reds need another quality starter. My feeling is that the Reds can in fact bid on an ace pitcher, in the price range of $15 million a year for 5 years. I don't want to see them get into a Barry Zito situation, but image getting a legitimate #1 starter with that cash. Remeber, the Reds have $13 million from Dunn and $16 million from Griffey - so they have close to $30 million to work with.
I'd try to get CC Sabathia, as he's a free agent at the end of the year. Lock him into a long term deal. I'd then move Matt Beliele and Arroyo to the bullpen, or cut them and eat their salary. I know getting a guy like Sabathia would cost alot, and may be tough, but there are a couple other legitimate #1 starters that are free agents at the end of this season. If the Reds can get one of them, image this rotation.
1. CC Sabathia
2. Aaron Harang
3. Edison Volquez
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Homer Bailey
There would be very few teams that could put five pitchers out every night with this type of quality.
2 months ago
Dude, you'll never see the Reds sign a free agent "ace". If the Reds can afford them, then about 25 other teams can afford them. And most of them are in much more desirable locations than Cincinnati and Great American Ballpark. Sabathia turned down $17-$18 million a year from Cleveland in the offseason. Something tells me he's looking to break the bank in free agency.
Chances of the Reds signing CC Sabthia: 0.00%
The worst thing the Reds could do is say, "well we've got $13 million to spend - might as well spend it on someone" and just overpay for some shitty 4th starter like they did with Eric Milton. But it's probably what they'll end up doing, because they're the Reds.
If you look at the 2009 free agent class, there's nothing else to get excited about. Nobody worth mentioning is going to become a free agent, and as I mentioned before - the days of huge free agency signings are going away. There used to be big free agents EVERY YEAR. Nowadays, we're lucky if there's just one. Teams are locking up their own talent long-term, and that's what the Reds have to do. Keep drafting well, and lock up who they've got. Including Dunn, sadly.
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