NFL Aging Curves by Position: Rookie QBs, Third-Year WRs, and Age-30 RBs

(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Click here for this table in a graph.

The vertical lines on the graph show the values at age 29 and 30. You can clearly see that each stat falls after a running back’s age-29 season, but is the myth that 30-year-old running backs see a dramatic decline any true?

Not really. Age-30 backs lose 1.26 percent off their yards per attempt (.937 divided by .949 in the table above, then subtracted from one) and 2.13 percent of their touchdown rate (.862 divided by .881 and subtracted from one)—a drop of 15 yards and one-fourth of a touchdown for a running back with 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns.

To put it bluntly, don’t downgrade LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Lewis, or Larry Johnson on your running back rankings because they are turning 30. That is, unless you’re afraid of losing less than three fantasy points over the course of a season.

Running backs tend to peak around 22 to 25, specifically at 23 and 24. Fantasy points per attempt seem to have, more or less, a triangular pattern from 21 to 26, but then it ever-so-slightly increases with no set pattern until age 32.

This can most likely be attributed to selective sampling. The longer a running back plays, the more chance for them to peak later in their careers, a la John Riggins.

In addition, if a guy is playing into his early-to-mid 30s, chances are he’s been productive late in his career; if a guy fades away at age 31, with, say, a drop of 500 rushing yards from his previous year, he’s going to get little carries the next year—if he isn’t retired by then.

Running backs have a very short period of increasing performance. Rushing yards per carry increase from 21 to 22, but decrease all but two of the next 11 years; touchdowns per carry increase from 21 to 23 but decrease four of the next five years.

Of course, the largest overall increase for a running back is between his age 22 and 23 seasons, in which his touchdowns go up almost 12 percent and fantasy points increase by 2.7 percent. (Rushing yards, however, decline by about 1.2 percent.)

Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, and Kevin Smith headline this year’s age-23 class. That said, don’t expect a huge breakout: If we adjust each of their 2008 stats based on their expected increase, all of them would have a four- or five-point increase in fantasy points.

Neither Slaton nor Smith would have their rank among running backs in fantasy points changed, while Lynch would move up three spots from No. 15 to No. 12.

Thirty-two-year-old running backs had the biggest decline in production, losing 10 percent of their yards per carry, 16 percent of their touchdowns, and 12 percent of their fantasy points. This year, however, only two New England backs are turning 33: Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk.

I think it’s safe to say that neither will perform as the top-10 backs you expected in May.

Wide Receivers

Conventional wisdom says that wide receivers have a longer peak than most other positions.

Take one look at the best receivers in the NFL today—Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, to name a few—and it becomes clear that the best wideouts typically have numerous 1,000-yard seasons during their prime.

The numbers, unsurprisingly, back up this notion.

A graph of this data can be found here.

Wide receivers have the latest and longest peak of any skill position. Their best year is at age 27, but ages 24 to 30 aren’t far behind. In fact, in terms of yards per receptions, all but one of those six years (excluding age 27) are within one percent of the peak level.

In other words, a wide receiver with a true talent level of 1,000 yards in a constant number of catches will be within 10 yards of that level all but one year from 24 to 30. (He’d be within 13 yards in that one year.)

This also suggests that a receiver’s breakout or banner year is more reliable in establishing a new talent level compared to those of quarterbacks or running backs. (As well, receiving yards per catch has a higher year-to-year correlation than any passing or rushing stat.)

A receiver’s largest statistical jump unquestionably occurs from age 23 to age 24, when yards per catch increases by 3.2 percent and touchdowns per catch goes up 7.7 percent.

That means a receiver with 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns—who’d rank No. 12 among receivers in fantasy points—would gain almost 40 yards and half a touchdown (seven fantasy points), and would jump four spots to No. 8.

If you didn’t respect him before, it’s hard not to now: Calvin Johnson is turning 24. The second-year receiver finished fifth in the league in receiving yards with 1,331 and tied for first in receiving touchdowns with 12. In addition, Johnson’s average of 17.1 yards per catch was the second-highest of any receiver with 60 catches since 2006.

Applying the aforementioned age adjustments, Johnson gains over 40 yards and one touchdown to his already absurd statistics.

Another receiver turning 24 is Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. The ninth pick in the 2007 draft, Ginn started 14 games last year and caught 56 balls for 790 yards, 570 more than his rookie season total. Ginn finished No. 33 among receivers in fantasy points last year, but most Web sites rank him around No. 40 for the upcoming season.

Ginn could beat out those prognostications by a large margin if the age-24 increase comes about.

Interestingly, both Johnson and Ginn are also entering their third season. We hear fantasy analysts claiming that receivers break out in their third season, because it takes two to acclimate to the NFL. Is this belief actually a renaming of the age-24 jump?

If so, the increase from a receiver’s second to third season would not be as large as the increase from age 23 to age 24.

And we see just that.

You can find a graph of this data here.

A receiver’s yards and touchdowns both peak in their third year—though that doesn’t necessarily confirm the myth. From their second year to their third, wideouts gain 1.4 percent to their yards and 4.2 percent to their touchdowns, compared to 3.2 and 7.7, respectively, from age 23 to age 24.

It appears as if the third-year wide receiver myth is actually the age-24 increase in disguise.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?