Best Strategic Options For Second Encounter
Brock Lesnar
Sprawl & Brawl: Lesnar's cinder-blocks have rocked every fighter he's fought so far. He can effectively use his wrestling background to negate the fight ever going to the ground. Mir has no hope of taking Lesnar down, and he's in danger every second the fight stays on its feet.
Air It Out: Lesnar's wrestling ability could be used in the standup, as well—in the form of high amplitude slams, provided he's careful not to get caught in a submission in the process.
The strength discrepancy is big enough to consider it. If it worked for Hughes, against Sakurai, its a viable strategy.
Lay & Pray: With explosive takedowns and raw physical strength, he can keep Mir smothered. In order to get submissions, he requires space, and this strategy requires basic understanding of BJJ defence. But after two years of UFC fighting, he should have that.
Counter Strike: We go back to the ancient Chinese principles—wu wei, or action through inaction. Is also an option. By making Mir the aggressor, it puts him into a role he's likely not prepared to be in. With preparation being such a key for Mir, it would be interesting to see how he would handle such a radical change in pace.
Frank Mir
Chop Down: If Lesnar doesn't want any part of you on the ground, then its time to take a page out of Heath Herrings book. Lay in to those thighs, and slow the big man down in the later rounds.
The danger with this strategy is that in the first fight, he was dropped quickly after the first stand up, while attempting to do just this. He's got to be careful, so that straight right doesn't catch him clean.
If It Ain't Broke: As Randy Couture has said in interviews past, "your're almost disadvantaged going into a rematch."
Your opponent gets to make adjustments to what you did in the previous fight. Your only real choice is to go in with the same gameplan and react to the alterations that the other fighter makes on the fly.
This is a tall order versus a fighter who is just as good as you, and it's the number one reason we see so many trilogies in combat sports.
Pull Guard: Damien Maia is a master at this tactic. Go immediately for a takedown, expect to be stuffed battle for the clinch, get over-hooks, and fall while closing guard.
The real question here is: Can Mir even get to the clinch, much less establish over-hooks? It's not the best idea, but it's likely his only option if he's down late in the fight.
The Thales Leites: Most people who read that just cringed, but Lesner's meathead enough to fall for this strategy. Every half punch that lands go down, sell it that you're hurt. Let him think he has you, then spring the trap.
It's a dangerous and underhanded tact, but its one with potential.
Handicapping the Fight
If you're arguing for Brock, it's not a hard case to make. He was caught in a fight he was winning with a leg lock in a situation that's easily correctable.
He has the axiom of rematches on his side, and if he can develop a little patience he can win this fight.
The real questions come from his ability to defend submissions. At his age, his physical gifts will begin to deteriorate, and he needs to develop his all around MMA game if he's going to be a fighter that's a championship contender for a number of years.
If he is, he's going to have to put that to use at UFC 100.
Frank, on the other hand, is coming off a win against Noguera. To date, Mir is the only man to stop Nog in his 50-fight career. Bob Sapp and Fedor couldn't stop the guy in three attempts, but Frank Mir out boxes the guy and beat the heck out of him.
The questions for him are: Does he get over confident? Does he fancy himself a striker? Can he repeat the performance that he showed in the first fight?
Personally, I think Mir is the favorite in this fight, for many of the reasons previously stated—but Mir is also tactician. He relies on his intelligence to win him fights.
This is really the only area in which either fighter has an indomitable advantage:
The ability to weigh the options, and to understand when and where to use the skills at their disposal, is such a crucial advantage.
I have to give him the fight.
Bold Prediction: Mir, second round, Heel Hook.
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