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Johnson has been virtually invisible the past two years after having a monster 2006 season in which he rushed for 1789 yards and 17 touchdowns.
He has missed 12 games the past two years, and there is the possibility that he may be released by KC, as he doesn’t appear to fit in the new offense. But even if released, he should find work as a goal-line back somewhere, as he still has the size.
Watch his offseason status and look for him in the middle to late rounds, depending on what happens.
23. Ronnie Brown (Miami Dolphins)
Projection: 235 carries, 975 yards, seven touchdowns, 35 receptions, 275 yards, one touchdown
It usually takes two years to return from a serious knee injury like Brown had in 2007, but he had a great year in 2008 with the Wildcat offense. He shared carries with Ricky Williams and still rushed for 916 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Brown looks to be on track to be the No. 1 guy in Miami again and could be in line for a breakout year.
Watch out for the time-share though, and look for him between rounds four and seven.
24. Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints)
Projection: 165 carries, 550 yards, five touchdowns, 70 receptions, 535 yards, four touchdowns
Bush was on fire the first half, rushing for 294 yards and two touchdowns, plus 42 receptions for 366 yards and three touchdowns.
Then, he got hurt, yet again, and missed four games.
He tried to come back, but he was still hurting and missed the final two games, totaling six games lost. He also missed four games in 2007.
With Pierre Thomas’ emergence, Bush may be relegated to third-down duties and slot receiver, limiting his fantasy expectations. However, I believe it will be more of a time-share than people expect, and Bush is too explosive not to get the ball.
Look for him in the middle rounds and you might just get a big time steal.
25. LenDale White (Tennessee Titans)
Projection: 195 carries, 800 yards, 11 touchdowns, five receptions, 20 yards
The other half of the former “Smash and Dash”, White carried the ball 200 times for 773 yards and an amazing 15 touchdowns, considering he was splitting carries with Chris Johnson.
This year, Johnson is the clear favorite for more carries, while White is in the final year of his rookie contract and appears to be on the Titans bad side. He will still be the goal-line back and could still score 10+ touchdowns, so he is still a valuable fantasy running back.
Look for him in the middle rounds.
26. Willie Parker (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Projection: 275 carries, 1100 yards, seven touchdowns, 10 receptions, 100 yards
“FWP” Fast Willie Parker had another, less friendly name with the Sportmeisters last year, as I’m sure he did with quite a few owners.
Parker was injured and limited to 11 games last year, only rushing for 791 yards and five touchdowns.
With Rashard Mendenhall coming back from injury and Mewelde Moore playing so well last year, Parker’s value may be at an all-time low. However, he should still be the No. 1 guy and could post decent numbers, if he gets the carries that I think he will.
Look for Parker in the middle to later rounds.
27. Jonathan Stewart (Carolina Panthers)
Projection: 195 carries, 855 yards, eight touchdowns, 12 receptions 75 yards
Stewart had a great rookie season even though he battled nagging injuries. He rushed for 833 yards and 10 touchdowns despite splitting carries with DeAngelo Williams.
This year will be more time-share, but with that Carolina offensive line in front of him, Stewart will still be a valuable fantasy back.
Look for him in the middle to late rounds and expect similar numbers to his rookie year.
28. Jamal Lewis (Cleveland Browns)
Projection: 265 carries, 1000 yards, six touchdowns, 20 receptions, 135 yards
Lewis had a down year, much like the entire Cleveland offense. He still managed to rush for 1002 yards and four touchdowns, though.
With a new head coach who likes to run and a good offensive line in front of him, Lewis could return to the 1000 yard mark yet again, but don’t expect his 2007 numbers (1304 yards 9 touchdowns).
Look for Lewis in the later rounds, and you just may get a good sleeper.
29. Chris Wells (Arizona Cardinals)
Projection: 215 carries, 945 yards, six touchdowns, 15 receptions, 120 yards
Beanie Wells was the Cardinals' first-round pick and is expected to share time with Tim Hightower. However, he is expected to see more of the carries and has the talent to be fantasy relevant even in his rookie year.
He has a great offense around him and could be a nice middle to late round sleeper.
30. Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts)
Projection: 200 carries, 875 yards, six touchdowns, 22 receptions, 215 yards, one touchdown
Brown was drafted to take some of the heat off of Joseph Addai coming off his injuries. Expect Brown to see his share of carries, much like they used Addai in his rookie season.
If that’s the case, Brown could have very nice value in the later rounds.
There are my first projections for fantasy football. The running back position is the most important position in fantasy football, so choose wisely. Any questions or concerns, email me at Derek@Sportmeisters.com.
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