UFC 100 Tips/Predictions

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Fitch has gone 8-0 in UFC, though without defeating many highly ranked opponents, as neither Sanchez nor Alves were highly ranked at the time.

Thiago has a great chin, as Koscheck dropped a heavy bomb on him early, which did not stumble him. Fitch's chin however, survived a war from Georges St.Pierre, and will not likely get KO'd.

He's unlikely to get submitted too, being a Jiu Jitsu black belt—he's probably a better wrestler than Thiago anyway, so it probably wont be an issue.

Thiago does throw hard, but was losing decisively to Koscheck before he got a TKO which was not conclusive. Fitch is understandably favourite for all these reasons, and after what happened to Koscheck, he won't take his opponent lightly.

Thiago does not have good striking combinations, and really, only KO'd Koscheck because Koscheck leaned into the uppercut. Doubtful he'll outstrike Fitch.

My Take

Unless Thiago lands a Manhoef style haymaker, Fitch will dispose of him easily. Fitch by TKO, Round Two.

There is little value in Fitch at 1.20. Thiago might be worth small money at 4.00, but that would probably just be throwing money away, really.



Dan 'Hendo' Henderson vs. Michael 'The Count' Bisping
(185lbs/84kg)

Dan Henderson
24-7-0

USA

+Olympian; qualified for the US greco-roman wrestling team in '92 and '96
+Big punching power
+Great sub defense
+Rock hard chin

-Bad cardio
-Tendency to stick head down and brawl
-Sometimes inaggressive when opponent is on their back
-No submissions




Notable Wins:
Rich Franklin (2009)
Rousimar Palhares (2008)
Wanderlei Silva (2007)
Vitor Belfort (2006)
Kazuo Misaki (2006)
Murilo Bustamante x2 (2005, 2003)
Ryo Chonan (2005)
Murilo Rua (2001)
Renzo Gracie (2001)
Renato Sobral (2000)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2000)
Carlos Newton (1998)



Michael Bisping
17-1-0

UK

+Good cardio
+Good technical counterstriker; uses Muay Thai and kickboxing combinations well
+Great use of Muay Thai clinch

-Poor submission skill
-Does not have one strike KO power
-Questionable wrestling








Analysis

Henderson is a 38 year old former olympian, who still hasn't had a (T)KO loss in his 31 fight career. Bisping is a relative newcomer, but at 29 years old and having 18 fights, he is not green at all.

A huge problem presents itself for Bisping, and that is how to stop Henderson's takedowns. He could probably win the standup simply by pulling the Misaki strategy and sticking and moving, but sooner or later, he is going to have to sprawl.

Considering Bisping/Hammil, it's hard to see how he'll deal with Henderson; one could only hope that Rampage was training wrestling with Bisping 24/7, but even then Bisping does not have Rampage's strength.

Bisping also is not known for submissions, and if Hendo puts him on his back, expect the American to use much more aggressive techniques than his usual mouth covering. Bisping is going to have to do what he did to Leben to win, stick and move, be elusive and above all else, avoid clinching.

My Take

I expect this to look like Henderson/Franklin, with the American winning the first two rounds, putting the Englishman on his back, using some GnP and landing one or two big punches, and possibly gassing and losing the third, but doing enough to win convincingly and getting the unanimous decision.

Henderson enters at 1.43, while Bisping enters at 2.90. But Henderson is pretty much everything Matt Hammil is but much better. Henderson is a safe bet.



Georges 'Rush' St-Pierre vs. Thiago 'Pitbull' Alves
(170lbs/77kg)


Georges St.Pierre
18-2-0

Canada

+Olympic calibre wrestling
+Excellent blend of Kyokushin karate, boxing, and Muay Thai
+Explosive athlete
+Switches from striking to takedowns superbly
+Great training camp with brilliant gameplans
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Ferocious ground and pound
+Excellent cardio

-May have trouble fighting under pressure
-Possible lack of heart







Notable Wins:
BJ Penn x2 (2009, 2006)
Jon Fitch (2008)
Matt Serra (2008)
Matt Hughes x2 (2007, 2006)
Josh Koscheck (2007)
Karo Parisyan (2004)



Thiago Alves
16-3-0

Brazil

+Ferociously powerful striker
+Excellent Muay Thai combinations
+Probably the largest welterweight in the division
+Fantastic sprawl
+Very good at countering takedown attempts with knees

-Questionable cardio which may be worsened if he has difficulty making weight
-No submissions - only submission win was by 'punches.'
-No offensive wrestling





Notable Wins:
Josh Koscheck (2008)
Matt Hughes (2008)
Karo Parisyan (2008)

Analysis

Thiago Alves is the one man in Georges St. Pierre's way before he really has cleaned out the welterweight division, but it just so happens that this will likely be the toughest matchup there is.

Alves has a wonderful sprawl and very dangerous striking, meaning that he could cause GSP a ton of problems, and this should come down to whether Alves sprawl is better than GSP's takedowns or vice versa.

If Alves has enough confidance in his sprawl, he may open up with his Muay Thai, in which case he could do severe damage, but if he is put on his back successfully, and takes some GnP, then GSP will likely put him off balance, making him weary of being taken down, and thus fight defensively, and I could easily see GSP at that point outstriking him.

Another thing that has to be noted is that GSP has a black belt in BJJ, so there is a huge possiblity that Alves could get subbed on the ground, himsef being at purple belt level.

My Take

If Alves outsprawls St.Pierre, he'll probably win, but if St.Pierre outwrestles Alves, he'll probably win. At the moment I am leaning towards Alves, and at 3.60 he is a solid underdog. Very little value in betting at GSP at 1.29.



Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
(265lbs/120kg)

Brock Lesnar
3-1-0

USA

+Excellent wrestler; 2000 NCAA Heavyweight champion
+Extremely dangerous punching power
+Very athletic; 285lbs frame, but still moves very explosively
+Huge reach advantage

-Questionable sub defense
-Unreliable cardio
-Slow handspeed
-Basic boxing footwork or head movement





Notable Wins:
Randy Couture (2008)
Heath Herring (2008)


Frank Mir
12-3-0

USA

+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Excellent killer instinct
+Good kickboxing

-Questionable cardio
-Not fast on feet
-Still rudimentary striker

Notable Wins:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2008)
Brock Lesnar (2008)
Tim Sylvia (2004)

Analysis

This will likely be a boxing match for the first round or two, as Lesnar will likely be unwilling to risk fighting in Mir's guard, and Mir will not likely try to take Lesnar down in the early rounds, blowing his load early.

The striking is pretty even, with Mir probably having slighting cleaner and more technical kickboxing, and Lesnar being the harder and more explosive hitter, with one-punch KO power.

Whoever wins the striking will likely win the fight. If Lesnar wins it, Mir will be forced to try to take him down, maybe through pulling guard, and if he's losing the standup, he likely will be too rocked and gassed to succeed. If Mir gains the edge, Lesnar will be forced to take him down, where Mir will have a great chance of subbing him.

My Take

Lesnar may have an edge in standup, and he should be able to keep it off the ground. At 1.40, there's very little value in backing Lesnar.

But at 2.90, Mir is tempting. His standup looks good enough to damage Lesnar, and his ground game should be good enough to sub him if Lesnar reverts to wrestling instincts. At 2.90, Mir is a solid bet. Lesnar enters at 1.40

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