Deal or No Deal? Tim Lincecum's Contract Situation in the Future

(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Think of it this way: If Cain breaks out (like he did this season), he’s still locked in through his arbitration years at a reasonable price. Even if he wins 20 games this year and 20 games next year, San Francisco can still keep him under control in 2011 for only $6.25 million.

The risk is if he breaks down. Say the Giants signed Jonathan Sanchez to a similar deal, only to see his production plummet. Then they would be on the hook for the rest of his salary (see Russ Ortiz and his $48 million buyout). 

It comes down to the Giants locking up a promising arm for a few years without having to negotiate a new contract. They might overpay, but usually the long-term deals are reserved for the ones that aren’t going to be busts.

For Lincecum, his people are waiting for another year like this year. By holding out, they can hold the threat of bolting for free agency and commanding a premium price for his services. Also, by going year-to-year, they can gauge their arbitration figures by the free-agent contracts given to pitchers with similar statistics.

So there you have it. The Giants are not ignorant or dumb. Lincecum is not money-mongering. It just works out for both teams that this is how it will probably play out. 

Giant fans, know this: The San Francisco front office will pay whatever it takes, I guarantee it, to keep Lincecum after his arbitration years are up. If it ends up costing CC Sabathia money, then that’s what it will cost.

The Giants know they have something special, and they didn’t nickname him “The Franchise” without reason.

In the same vein, I sincerely believe that Lincecum wants to stay in San Francisco. He’s completely devoid of an ego, as far as he has shown so far. He might ask for some money, but after the level he has performed at to begin his career, he’s more than entitled to that. 

At the end of the day, Lincecum is a Giant and will be until at least 2012. After that, the front office will have a very expensive decision to make, but I believe that he will remain with the team for a long while post-2012.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?