Forecasting Manchester City's transfers this summer is like trying to forecast summer weather.
Meteorologists always seem to be accounting for the chance of a thunderstorm in the summer. The air is warmer, but there is a cold front coming in. If they call for it and it never comes, no harm done. But if they leave the small chance of a storm out of the forecast and it shows up, that is just not good enough.
So it is this summer with City's transfers.
Every week we are ready to talk about Eliaquim Mangala and how so very close he is to being City's new running mate for Vincent Kompany at centre-back, and every week Mangala is still Porto property.
The transfers City have actually accomplished are minor events. There is no harm in bringing on a Fernando, Bruno Zuculini or Willy Caballero, but none of those new acquisitions are projected to make City's XI when the Premier League season begins in less than a month.
City are looking to make the ground shake with transfer news this summer, but so far all that predicted thunder is just noise and nothing more.