NFC South: Three New Faces, Three New Defenses

(Photo by Tom Pidgeon/Getty Images)

And then there's the forgotten man, Jim Bates.  Lost in all of the changes in Tampa Bay is their new and very experienced defensive coordinator, who represents a pretty big departure from the last guy, Monte Kiffin.

Kiffin ran a Cover-2 defense, where the pressure comes from the line.  Bates runs a contain defense.  His units are tasked with shutting down the run by forcing it inside. 

Instead of rushing the passer, the defensive tackles are charged with plugging the gaps, forcing the run to go outside. 

Instead of closing and tackling, the outside linebackers are tasked with preventing the running backs from turning the corner, either sending them out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage or turning them back inside where the middle linebacker will make the tackle.

When it works, it works well.  In 2006 Bates took over a Green Bay defense that had been ranked 26th in the league, and improved it to seventh. 

But in Denver, he didn't have the personnel needed to make it effective.  The Bronco defense that had been ranked 14th in 2007 was 19th under Bates in 2008.  What's worse, the defense that is designed to stop the run went from the 12th best rushing defense to the 30th ranked unit.

The contain defense needs some large, run-stuffing defensive tackles who are patient enough to plug the gaps and allow the play to come to them.  It also requires fast outside linebackers who can understand and execute Bates' vector based coverage. 

The Bucs have some undersized defensive tackles, but they do have the speed in the secondary and linebacker units to make that part work.

If they don't, expect the Buc's defense to look more like the unit that finished out 2008 than the unit that started the year.

Why Bates will succeed

The defensive tackles weren't great at rushing the passer last year anyway, and are well suited to plug the gaps. The new starters at outside linebacker do a good job at funnelling the play to Barrett Rudd, who leads the division in tackles. 

The secondary plays with discipline, keeping the play in front of them and preventing any big completions.

Why Bates will fail

The defensive tackles get blown off the ball and runs go up the middle, where Rudd gets tangled with the fullback far too often. On edge runs, good blocking receivers like Muhsin Muhammad and Roddy White help spring the backs off the edge, where coverage is thin, and the Bucs surrender far too many big plays. 

Lack of leadership on defense results in a lack of cohesiveness, and the Bucs never come together on that side of the ball.

Conclusion

Three new coordinators, and three new defenses.  They range from the complex to the unconventional to the simple.

The Saints have talent, and their talent is good between the ears. If the Saints stay healthy, they should show a dramatic improvement over 2008.

When the Panthers ran simple sets in 2008, they were a top five defense. Meeks will turn Peppers loose and stop dropping him in coverage, and he has an outstanding talent at MLB in Jon Beason.  Expect a very big improvement in Carolina.

The Bucs have talent as well, in fact they may have the most talent on the defensive side of the ball.  But it's young talent. They're solid in the secondary, but the line is just too small to stuff the interior run consistently.

Later in the season there's a big risk that they break down just as they did in 2008, and this team doesn't have the offense to overcome that if it happens.

All three teams believe they're on the right track, but how it plays out is anyone's guess.

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