Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago
Why this matchup is even taking place has me seriously scratching my head. Jon Fitch is still one of the top three welterweights in the UFC, in my opinion. Paulo Thiago probably isn’t in the top 20.
Thiago first fought in the UFC at UFC 95 as a late replacement against Josh Koscheck. Thiago didn’t even have a guaranteed contract at the time, and was only fighting on a one-fight deal as a fill in. That is how little the UFC expected from him.
However, we all know what happened, and Thiago managed to knockout Koshcheck in the first round to improve his record to 11-0. So, the question remains: how good is Paulo Thiago?
The answer: not nearly good enough to defeat Jon Fitch, and not good enough to beat Josh Koscheck again, most likely.
Fitch’s striking is better, his wrestling is better, and, most likely, his ground game is at least on par, if not better than Thiago’s. I expect an extremely easy victory for Fitch.
Winner: Jon Fitch
Alan Belcher vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
Japanese star Yoshihiro Akiyama will make his UFC debut after signing with the promotion back in February.
For whatever reason, Akiyama is bringing a lot of hype and expectation into this debut. I've covered Akiyama's checkered past before, and you can be certain he won’t be bringing any brass knuckles or body lotion into this matchup with Alan Belcher.
Akiyama does have strong punching power and good judo throws, and, if he fights smartly, he should be able to handle Belcher. However, we’ve seen in the past that fighters don’t always compete up to their potential the first time they step into the Octagon.
Belcher’s strength is his strong Muay Thai skills, his weakness has been consistency. We’ve seen Alan Belcher look like an explosive world beater, and we’ve also seen fights where Belcher looked like a middle of the pack fighter.
If Belcher can keep the fight from going to the ground, where he is weakest, I think he’ll be able to outpoint Akiyama, and perhaps gain a TKO victory.
Winner: Alan Belcher
Undercard
Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar – Winner: Stephan Bonnar
Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller – Winner: Jim Miller
Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien – Winner: Jon Jones
Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant – Winner: Dong Hyun Kim
CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor – Winner: Tom Lawlor
Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty – Winner: Shannon Gugerty
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