UFC on Fox 12: Lawler vs. Brown Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Nathan McCarter@McCarterNFeatured ColumnistJuly 24, 2014

UFC on Fox 12: Lawler vs. Brown Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

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    UFC on Fox 12 gets underway this Saturday with a big main event in the welterweight division.

    No. 1-ranked contender Robbie Lawler takes on No. 5-ranked Matt Brown. The winner will likely receive the next title shot against champion Johny Hendricks.

    The four-fight main card gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Fox.

    What value is there on the main card? That is what we will look at. We will supply you with information to help you make better decisions when it comes to what fights you should make a play on. After all, not every fight is worth it.

    Let's have a look at the odds for Saturday's exciting bouts.

    All odds provided by OddsShark.com.

Josh Thomson (-260) vs. Bobby Green (+200)

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    The opening tilt on Saturday's main card should be a fun lightweight battle.

    Thomson is worthy of his No. 3 ranking, and Green always brings excitement with him inside the cage. This was a bout of good matchmaking.

    Green will have trouble stifling Thomson. The AKA product is a dynamic striker with very good wrestling. His blend of the two will consistently keep Green off-guard. Thomson should be able to control the fight wherever it goes.

    Play it safe early with Thomson. He won't lead you astray.

    Prediction: Thomson

    The Play: You're safe with Thomson

Clay Guida (+130) vs. Dennis Bermudez (-160)

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    No. 12-ranked contender Dennis Bermudez takes on No. 7-ranked Clay Guida, and Bermudez enters as a slight favorite.

    Bermudez is on a six-fight win streak, but there is little question that Guida is a step up in a competition. Bermudez has beaten his mid-tier opposition, and now it's time to take the next step toward making a title run.

    It is a bit curious that the odds makers favor Bermudez. This looks very much like the type of fight Guida excels in. Bermudez is a solid wrestler, but not a top-of-the-line grappler like Chad Mendes, Benson Henderson or Gray Maynard. Those are who he has had troubles with.

    Guida's movement and pace should give him a slight edge. You should feel comfortable taking a shot on the dog in this fight.

    Prediction: Guida

    The Play: Take a chance on Guida

Anthony Johnson (-550) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+375)

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    No. 5-ranked contender Anthony Johnson takes on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in the co-main event of the evening.

    Johnson returned to the UFC with a big win over Phil Davis, and suddenly finds himself in the top half of the official rankings. Meanwhile, Nogueira, on a two-fight win streak, has been inactive for over a year and was unceremoniously dropped from the rankings.

    This looks like a terrible matchup for Nogueira on paper. He is outgunned on the feet, and would have a hard time taking Johnson down to utilize his superior submission attack. Regardless, at nearly four-to-one odds I think a small flier on Nogueira is worth a shot.

    Johnson still has question marks, and three of his last four losses have all come by way of submission—to lesser submission practitioners than Nogueira. If Nogueira can find a way to get Johnson down, he will be in a lot of trouble.

    Prediction: Johnson

    The Play: Take a small flier on Nogueira

Robbie Lawler (-365) vs. Matt Brown (+275)

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    The main event should be an exciting affair, albeit a lopsided one.

    Brown has had an incredible run up the welterweight ranks, but that ends on Saturday. The matchup against Lawler does not favor him.

    On the feet, Lawler is more technical and more powerful. In the wrestling department Lawler is just as capable as Brown is. A simple double leg attempt will not put Lawler on the mat. Everything about this fight, on paper, says Lawler walks away as the winner.

    And the odds do not make it worthwhile to play the dog or play it safe with the favorite. It's best just to grab your popcorn and enjoy these two in the cage.

    Prediction: Lawler

    The Play: Avoid the main event

    Just-for-Fun Parlay: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Gilbert Burns, Steven Siler, Tiago dos Santos, Mike de la Torre, Pat Cummins, Hernani Perpetuo, Jorge Masvidal, Josh Thomson, Clay Guida, Anthony Johnson, Robbie Lawler