UFC

UFC Fight Night 46 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Nathan McCarterFeatured ColumnistJuly 17, 2014

UFC Fight Night 46 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

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    Gregory Payan/Associated Press

    UFC Fight Night 46 kicks off from Dublin, Ireland, this Saturday with a fun featherweight scrap headlining the action.

    No. 13-ranked contender and Irish star Conor McGregor is set to take on Diego Brandao in the main event. It will be the fourth and final fight of the main card exclusively on UFC Fight Pass.

    We will take a look at the four bouts on the card in order to help you make better informed decisions based on where the oddsmakers set the lines for the fights. Where is the value, if any, for these main card tilts? And we will also throw in a complete card parlay just for fun.

    The main card action gets underway at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday.

    All odds provided by OddsShark.

Norman Parke (-325) vs. Naoyuki Kotani (+250)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Both Parke and Kotani have not dropped an MMA bout since 2010. That is a long time to go without losing in this unpredictable sport, but someone will end up on the losing end Saturday.

    There is not much value on Parke in this fight, but Kotani is not a great underdog option. He has failed to win the vast majority of his fights against top opposition and is 0-2 in the UFC.

    Kotani has the skills to upend Parke, but it isn't likely.

    Your best play is to avoid the fight. The risk on playing Kotani is not worth the odds given.

    Prediction: Parke

    The Play: Avoid this fight.

Brad Pickett (+145) vs. Ian McCall (-175)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    If you want value on the main card this is the fight to keep an eye on.

    Pickett made his flyweight debut earlier this year, and he looked very good against Neil Seery. McCall posts a 1-2-1 record inside the Octagon, but he is clearly one of the best flyweights on the roster.

    With the odds tight feel free to play whomever you think takes the fight, but I like Pickett in this fight.

    He is one of only two men to defeat current flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Pickett will be able to match McCall on the feet and has an underrated submission game. He will be right in this fight from bell to bell and has the striking to finish it.

    Pickett will even be more comfortable at 125 pounds for his second go-around. Favor the odds on the Brit.

    Prediction: Pickett

    The Play: Pickett

Gunnar Nelson (-450) vs. Zak Cummings (+325)

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    UFC.com

    Unfortunately, you will not find value here.

    Cummings is a lamb being led to slaughter in this fight. Nelson has tremendous upside. His style is made to look impressive against Cummings.

    This is a showcase fight.

    It is not worth taking a chance on Cummings in this matchup. He is outgunned, no pun intended, and it will show. Nelson gets a stoppage in the co-main event.

    Prediction: Nelson

    The Play: There is no value here.

Conor McGregor (-450) vs. Diego Brandao (+325)

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    Gregory Payan/Associated Press

    Unlike the Nelson vs. Cummings bout, the main event could offer some value.

    McGregor has a style that should be able to combat Brandao's aggressiveness, but Brandao is a quality fighter who has all the skills to make a serious run at 145 pounds.

    The Irishman is largely untested, especially on the mat. Brandao is a jiu-jitsu black belt with tricky submissions. If the fight hits the canvas he will have the advantage. And on the feet he has the power to catch McGregor as well.

    If you feel strongly that Brandao will topple McGregor there is a lot of value to be had at plus-325. Brandao being more than a three-to-one underdog is probably not accurate for this particular matchup. There is no value to be had with McGregor at minus-450, so if you are going to play this bout it should only be for the dog.

    Prediction: McGregor

    The Play: A small flier on Brandao could pay off.

    Just-for-Fun Full Fight Card Parlay: Josh Sampo, Nikita Krylov, Tor Troeng, Cathal Pendred, Seery, Ilir Latifi, Parke, Pickett, Nelson, McGregor

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