The Trouble With Being Ernest... Wilford

(Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

I’ll begin with the quarterback position.

Chad Pennington holds backup quarterback fantasy potential at best (assuming you’re in a standard ten or twelve team league) as the team will maintain their run-first incentive, and, likewise, Ted Ginn doesn’t see nearly as many throws his way as the Moss’ and Owens’ of the league.

Therefore, you should consider Ginn a third starter or flex no. 2/reserve if you’re in an abnormally large league.

However, tight end Anthony Fasano finished eighth among all NFL tight ends in fantasy production last year (according to NFL.com), and ranked even higher in touchdown catches. Considering this is a contract year for the 24-year-old, expect big things and plenty of looks from Pennington once again. Draft Fasano confidently.

The word from Tony Sparano that we should expect to see Patrick Cobbs receive more carries this year does not bode well for Ronnie Brown’s fantasy value, and of course Ricky Williams is in the mix, too.

Its likely Sparano wants to get a good look at Cobbs now before Williams retires after the 2010 season.

Regardless, Brown is still the anchor of a team that can run the ball upward near 40-times a game. I still expect them to win in excess of ten games again, so certainly draft Ronnie Brown in one of the first two rounds as a virtual every week starter.

Davonne Bess could be a real sleeper at wide receiver should he impress enough in the preseason and/or Greg Camarillo’s healing ACL keeps him out longer than expected.

Camarillo, himself, remains a risky fantasy play after his 2008 numbers as a part-time starter were quite mediocre at best, sans the 11-catch performance on November 2 in Denver.

As for Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs, neither really receives enough touches on a week-to-week basis to constitute a viable fantasy threat.

Kicker Dan Carpenter has potential, but his mere 27 attempts last year were not enough to make him a weapon in Fantasyland. Of course, this wasn’t his fault.

Considering the rather difficult schedule Miami plays, Carpenter isn’t worth drafting, but should be available via your free agent wire should you need a one week fill-in for a bye or something.

Lastly, and to end on a positive note, Miami’s defense, in summary, is ever much worth your draft pick somewhere in the middle rounds after the top tier defenses (Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New York Giants, and Baltimore) are off the table.

For their secondary inaccuracies, you know how much I’ve raved about the front seven and the re-signing of Jason Taylor for depth’s sake.

It really depends on when you’re looking for your own team to peak, and when you think you’ll have the option of keeping a flexible roster spot open for last second starters to pick off the free agent list.

The reason I say this is because Miami’s schedule starts with Atlanta, Indianapolis, New Orleans and San Diego, as they may very well be integrating up to three new starters in the secondary. Remember, in addition to the rookie cornerbacks, the team also picked up Gibril Wilson at free safety.

The first month’s schedule could be a real baptism by fire, and could set back your fantasy team if you rely to heavily on Miami’s defense. Later in the year, things open up a little bit more for them and they should develop expectedly as a top ten unit in your league.

All in all, I recommend you don’t carry more than one offensive player from Miami on your team.

They are a run-first offense that scored fewer points than ever other division champion in 2008. This synopsis does not affect their upside or my expectations for them in real life, and works toward again separating fantasy value (like Drew Brees’ 2008 season) from actual value (Pennington’s division winning 2008 season).

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