UFC Fight Night 45 Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
The UFC hits television screens for the 25th time in 2014 on Wednesday, July 16. UFC Fight Night 45 will take place in Atlantic City, with lightweights Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller headlining the action.
Prior to the action, we will take a look at the betting odds for the main card and attempt to help you make more informed decisions. Where is the value with UFC Fight Night 45? We will find out.
The main card will feature six bouts in total. It will get underway at 9 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Three of the six fights will take place in the competitive lightweight division, and we will also get to see flyweight, featherweight and welterweight tilts on the card. It will be a fun evening of fights fans can enjoy from the comfort of their own homes.
Let's jump right into the action and take a look at the odds for the main card.
All odds provided by Odds Shark.
Lucas Martins (+135) vs. Alex White (-165)
Alex White made an impact in his UFC debut by knocking out Estevan Payan. He comes in as a replacement against Lucas Martins in the first fight of the main card.
This featherweight scrap should be a great way to open the card.
Martins has won two in a row after dropping his UFC debut. He is a well-rounded fighter who has nine career knockouts and four submissions to his credit. White rivals him by finishing nine of his 10 career victories—four by KO, five via submission.
There is good value on the favorite. White will be a tough out for Martins, and he is one of the prospects to keep an eye on within this division. Ride White on Wednesday.
The Play: Bet on White
John Lineker (-300) vs. Alptekin Ozkilic (+230)
At minus-300, John Lineker is a solid favorite. And for good reason.
Alptekin Ozkilic is 1-1 in his UFC career, but he dropped his most recent outing inside the Octagon against Louis Smolka. Lineker is also coming off a loss, to Ali Bagautinov, but he has faced a higher level of competition.
If you are looking for better odds to play, you may want to try to find some prop bets. Straight betting for this bout is all for Lineker. He will win. The bigger question will be whether he can make weight. That is something the flyweight has struggled with numerous times.
Lineker is still a solid play at minus-300. It's safe, but it will not yield a large return.
The Play: Avoid the underdog; play the favorite
Justin Salas (-150) vs. Joe Proctor (+120)
Joe Proctor has come off The Ultimate Fighter and fought to a 2-1 record inside the UFC's cage. Justin Salas is 3-2, having exchanged wins and losses in each of his five UFC contests.
Look for Salas' pattern to continue Wednesday.
This is a relatively even matchup by the UFC, but Proctor's grappling will be the difference. The odds are also relatively even, and Salas is not a bad play. If Salas can shut down Proctor's grappling, he will take the fight.
Proctor does enjoy getting into a scrap, and that could be his downfall this week.
A small risk on Proctor paying off is the right play.
The Play: Take a chance on Proctor
Rick Story (-300) vs. Leonardo Mafra (+230)
UFC newcomer Leonardo Mafra has a stiff task for his debut. Rick Story is one of the toughest welterweights on the roster today.
Mafra is on a five-fight win streak, and he has stopped all of those by knockout. He has the striking to stop Story and pay off as an underdog, but this is a tough out for him. Story's grappling will be the difference.
Story's wrestling will stifle Mafra, and should his right hand connect flush, it will be the end of the road for Mafra. Story has more outs to win.
The odds are rather steep, but Story is as safe a play as there is on the card.
The Play: Safe bet is Story
Edson Barboza (-260) vs. Evan Dunham (+200)
No. 13-ranked contender Edson Barboza and Evan Dunham will try to get back on the winning track in their lightweight tilt.
Dunham could be a live dog at plus-200, but he has historically struggled against the top of the division.
Barboza has won three of his last four and has all the tools to make a serious run up the ladder. The story of this fight will be his ability to defend Dunham's takedowns. He is the superior striker by a wide margin. He can help himself by establishing distance early in the fight.
The risk on Barboza at minus-260 may be too steep to risk a play on him, and Dunham is not a strong underdog. It may be best to avoid this fight and play other matchups.
The Play: Avoid the tilt
Donald Cerrone (-260) vs. Jim Miller (+200)
No. 7-ranked Jim Miller welcomes No. 6-ranked Donald Cerrone to New Jersey for the main event. The winner will put himself into title contention at 155 pounds.
Cerrone has looked fantastic recently. He has finished his last three bouts to move up the lightweight rankings. Miller is a winner of his last two bouts, finishing both of those as well.
Seeing Miller at plus-200 is a bit of a surprise considering this fight will take place in his backyard. He has a style that can give Cerrone fits. There is some value for the dog in this fight.
It should be worth a small play considering where the odds stand.
However, I do not favor him to win.
Cerrone can manage the distance with his strikes, and he is strong in the clinch. Miller will have to struggle to get takedowns while eating shots. It plays into Cerrone's advantage. The former WEC lightweight should be able to take this fight to make it four in a row.
The Play: A moderate play on Miller could pay off
Just for Fun Full-Card Parlay: Claudia Gadelha, Yosdenis Cedeno, Aljamain Sterling, Leslie Smith, Gleison Tibau, Alex White, John Lineker, Joe Proctor, Rick Story, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone
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