Home Run Derby 2014: Predicting Final Scores for Each Participant

Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Bautista in action during an interleague baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday, May 6, 2014, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Matt Slocum/Associated Press
Sean ODonnellContributor IIIJuly 11, 2014

This year features a new fast-paced version of the Home Run Derby.

On Monday, we'll see some significant changes in the format, including seven outs per round instead of the previous 10. Also, there will be a new bracket orientation where players will be seeded after the first round of action.

Needless to say, along with these format changes will come adjusted scoring as well.

Remember Josh Hamilton's insane 28 jacks in the first round back in 2008? With a limited number of outs, we may not see that kind of production this time around.

So, taking everything into consideration, let's go ahead and predict the totals for each of this year's participants.

 

Participants

2014 Home Run Derby Participants
AL HitterTeam2014 Home Run Tally
Jose BautistaToronto Blue Jays17
Yoenis CespedesOakland Athletics14
Adam JonesBaltimore Orioles16
Brian DozierMinnesota Twins16
Josh DonaldsonOakland Athletics20
NL HitterTeam2014 Home Run Tally
Troy TulowitzkiColorado Rockies20
Yasiel PuigLos Angeles Dodgers12
Giancarlo StantonMiami Marlins21
Todd FrazierCincinnati Reds17
Justin MorneauColorado Rockies13
ESPN.com

 

Predictions

2014 Home Run Derby Predictions
HitterPrediction*
Josh Donaldson27
Giancarlo Stanton25
Jose Bautista24
Todd Frazier22
Troy Tulowitzki21
Brian Dozier20
Yoenis Cespedes18
Yasiel Puig17
Justin Morneau15
Adam Jones15
Sean O'Donnell's Predictions

*Predicted totals if each participant competed in each round.

 

Josh Donaldson

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

In this predicted derby, Donaldson comes away as the big winner. That really shouldn't be all too surprising after the year he's had at the plate.

Even though the Oakland Athletics third baseman is only averaging a distance of 397.05 feet on his 19 home runs this year, he's been extremely consistent due to a nice repetitive swing—an asset that will see him go far in this year's competition.

ESPN Stats & Info noted Donaldson's surge this year compared to last:

Here's a look at the swing that will be doing some damage on Monday:

 

Giancarlo Stanton

Matt York/Associated Press

Stanton has been a home run machine this season, and that helps him to earn a runner-up finish.

His 21 jacks are good enough for fourth in the league, but what makes them even more impressive is the distance he can generate. His average length of 423.76 feet is longer than anyone in the league with more than two home runs.

In fact, Stanton is doing things entire teams have been unable to accomplish, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

The only reason he comes in second in this scenario is due to the fact he hasn't sent one out of the park since June 26.

Still, he'll be incredibly fun to watch.

 

Jose Bautista

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Bautista has some nice experience in the Home Run Derby, having participated twice before. He didn't fare all too well back in 2011; however, he earned a trip to the final in 2012. This year he goes deep into the competition once again.

His 17 home runs this year have averaged 404.59 feet, with five being really deep blasts. Bautista's power has been on display many times this year, and his most recent jack shows what he's capable of:

Expect Bautista to demonstrate exactly why he was this year's leading vote-getter by going deep numerous times on Monday.

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