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Chicago: 8.5
The Chicago Bears remained competitive throughout the 2008 year and were on their way to securing a playoff spot with three straight home wins in Weeks Fourteen to Sixteen. However, when their playoff hopes came down to the final game of the year, they came up just short by losing in Houston 31-24.
By now, we know that Chicago made arguably the biggest splash this offseason by trading for disgruntled ex-Bronco QB Jay Cutler. A lack of offense has been the achilles heel in Chicago for the past number of years, and passing attacks led by Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton have come up short in gaining Chicago elite status.
Cutler brings with him all the tools necessary to revive an offense, however his new stomping ground won’t offer up nearly the quality of receiving options as the Broncos did.
Devin Hester has the speed to take advantage of Cutler’s cannon arm, however he has yet to prove he can be a consistent No. 1 receiving option, after making a name for himself as a returner. Hester’s stat line read 51 catches for 665 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, hardly the kind of production you are looking for in a No. 1 wideout.
TE Greg Olson has shown he can be dangerous but he alone won’t be enough. Should Cutler miss any time to injury, panic will rip through the Windy City, as there are no budding stars or wily veterans waiting in the wings as backups.
Cutler may have to take a back seat to the running game, as the Bears look to have a star for years to come with Matt Forte. In only his rookie season, Forte amassed the seventh most rushing yards in the league while also adding 477 yards receiving. For all Forte’s accomplishments though, the Bears still ranked a dismal 24th in rushing and 21st in passing.
With Cutler under centre now, Forte may see a little extra space as opposing defenses will have to respect the deep ball.
The offensive line was restocked, as the team said goodbye to Terrence Metcalf and John St. Clair and welcomed Orlando Pace, Frank Omiyale and Kevin Shaffer into the mix. In Pace, C Olin Kreutz and RG Roberto Garza, the Bears will have three starters in their thirties, so keeping this group healthy and fresh will be a priority.
A defense which remained strong versus the rush, ranking fifth, yet poor versus the pass, ranking 30th, will return essentially the same group as last year. The only major noteworthy additions are LB Pisa Tinoisamoa and FS Josh Bullocks.
Obviously the secondary must improve, but the once vaunted D is slowly on the decline. This group will see a few faces move into their 30s and many more enter the 2009 season coming off poor performances in 2008. This is no longer the feared group of defenders that lost in the Super Bowl not too long ago, and a 29th ranking in sacks is further evidence.
The schedule makers were very kind to the Bears in 2009, as they have been blessed with the league’s easiest schedule. Chicago will only play six teams with winning records from last year and their combined opponent’s records from ’08 is only 105-149-2. Chicago also avoids playing any teams coming off a bye and only has to play two games off short weeks of rest.
There’s a very real chance Brett Favre could un-retire again and steal the spotlight away from Cutler in the NFC North, but for the time being Cutler has the chance to be the star of this division.
While having the Lions on your schedule twice will certainly contribute to an easy schedule ranking, there are definitely enough winnable games for the Bears in ’09. That being said, teams can improve quickly in the NFL and many of their opponents will probably be better than their 2008 records would imply. I believe Chicago has many great pieces in place, however, collectively, I think they are on the decline.
The window is far from shut though, and getting over this win total for at least another 9-7 season or better looks manageable.
Prediction: Over 8.5 wins
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