NHL Fans: I Told You So!

See that 3" piece of black vulcanized rubber behind you, Carey?  That is one of the many goals you let in during the playoffs.

Many people were picking the Montreal Canadiens as the team to beat in the East this year.  To do that, you had to ignore one basic truth: rookie goalies are like the Biblical parable of the seed that falls on rocky soil--not deep-rooted enough to take the heat of adversity, and they wilt under the intense pressure of the playoffs.

There are a couple notable exceptions to this: Conn Smythe winners Cam Ward in 2006 and Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2002 were untested.  Before that, you have to go back to Patrick Roy.

And for the record, Price will probably still be a good goaltender.  Many guys bounce back from the type of collapse he had: five games of his eleven games he a 4.00+ GAA and was with under a .900 save percentage. 

He did have two shutouts and three other games in which he gave up fewer than three goals, and that is something to build on.  But he looked positively shaky in today's game, and gave up three goals in less than three minutes.

There are similar things being overlooked by Detroit fans.  Chris Osgood only won a Cup because he had the best post-Original Six league team ever surrounding him.  This is not a guy who has the focus on every shot it takes to win a Cup, and he has proven it time and again in the more balanced league he now finds himself in, where one cheap goal can make the difference.

Speaking of lack of focus, many people were also picking the Sharks to win it all this year.  They were so impressive in March, not losing a game in regulation, and they are deep and skilled. 

But as a Sharks' fan I can tell you their struggles are not surprising; their own skill makes them complacent.  They still have a chance, but you cannot give away two games every series and expect to win, and they have a pattern of being smooth, not gritty.  As the saying goes, "will beats, skill." 

Calgary and Anaheim were maybe also predictable early exits since they are undisciplined teams.  Too many penalties against playoff caliber teams usually will cost you. 

However, who would have thought the Ducks would have been that reckless?  And Calgary got away with those penalties because the Sharks have shown the lack of fundamentals on the power play to be successful in the post-season two years in a row now.

So when you pick your winners next year, don't have the Sharks' lack of fundamentals.  Remembering a couple key things can make you look so much smarter:

1. Look no further than the team with a top tier goaltender--no other teams have a reasonable chance.
2. Defense wins championships.  This is true in any sport, so look for a steady blue line and a team that blocks shots.
3. Perimeter and finesse players fail while net-crashers excel.  This is why guys like Tomas Holmstrom do so well and guys like Marian Hossa do not, even though Hossa always outperforms Holmstrom during the regular season.
4. Teams that play disciplined hockey, both within their system and by avoiding penalties, give themselves the best chance to win.
5. Look at how teams put out effort when they are leading in the early part of the season.  Do they try to coast to the finish line?  If they do, those bad habits will rear their ugly heads in the playoffs (see San Jose).
6. The West is the best.  The only reason to bet on the East is because we wear each other down, as does our geography: we actually have to travel three time zones and they never leave their one zone.

Okay, I threw that last one on for controversy--while it is true, the extra hurdles we have to leap make it a moot point for picking a champion.