This is probably the biggest group, but it also represents the most danger. Miss on a player making over $10 million a year annually, and it can set your franchise back.
Let's start in Houston with Chandler Parsons, who could receive a big offer sheet from a team trying to keep the Rockets from maintaining cap space and bringing in a big star. Parsons would have to agree to it first, but if he's just looking to get paid regardless, perhaps he won't be so patient. It's easy to see Parsons at a deal starting right at $11 million a year or so.
Luol Deng is an unrestricted free agent who should be in that range as well. Deng is a solid two-way player who should appeal to multiple teams, even if his mileage and lack of perimeter shooting might hurt his value a bit.
Still, if Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports is correct, it's hard to see Deng taking any less than $10 million: "Within days of the Chicago Bulls unloading Luol Deng for salary-cap relief and a first-round draft pick, the All-Star forward rejected a three-year, $30 million contact extension, a league source told Yahoo Sports."
Penciling Deng in for a deal starting around $12 million a year makes sense.
Dwyane Wade should definitely fall into this category as well, especially after turning down a player option worth two years and $42 million. Wade may covet long-term financial security more than anything else, but it's highly unlikely he takes less than $10 million a season at this point. Even if things fall apart in Miami, plenty of teams will give him that.
Sacramento Kings guard and restricted free agent Isaiah Thomas is a threat to touch $10 million annually, but it seems unlikely given the depth of the position around the league and the lack of suitors. That might be what it takes to ensure Sacramento doesn't match, though, so there's a chance he gets it.
Lance Stephenson and Pau Gasol are the last two candidates who could realistically pull down more than $10 million a year. Stephenson probably won't get that with the Indiana Pacers, however, so a deal around $8-9 million might be more realistic.
According to Marc Stein of ESPN.com, Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph extended for two years and $20 million, so Gasol can likely hunt for a similar amount. He could end up on either side of that line, depending on whether he's adamant about playing for a contender. That definitely seems like his range, though.
Trevor Ariza could surprise some, especially if the Washington Wizards need to pay extra to keep him around, but $10 million annually is probably too high for him. Something closer to $7-8 million sounds about right.
No other player should approach this amount. Deng, Parsons and Wade seem very likely to be in this group, with Gasol, Thomas and Stephenson all having a decent chance to join.