UFC 175: Weidman vs. Machida Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Nathan McCarter@McCarterNFeatured ColumnistJuly 3, 2014

UFC 175: Weidman vs. Machida Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

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    USA TODAY Sports

    UFC 175 hits Las Vegas on Saturday with two championship fights.

    UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman defends his title for the second time in his career, and it will be Lyoto Machida challenging him in the main event.

    In the co-main event, Ronda Rousey defends her bantamweight crown against jiu-jitsu ace Alexis Davis.

    Who should you put a little money on? This article is here to help you make a more informed decision by laying out the pre-fight odds for you. It will help you identify the value on the main card of UFC 175. A well-informed bettor has a better chance of beating the odds.

    With that said, onward to the main card odds and predictions for UFC 175.

    All odds provided by Odds Shark.

Marcus Brimage (-110) vs. Russell Doane (-120)

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    Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

    The pay-per-view opener is a bout of good matchmaking, as Russell Doane takes on Marcus Brimage.

    This will be Brimage's first bout at 135 pounds. The Ultimate Fighter alum has exceptional power in his hands, and he will bring that to the lighter division. He is coming off a loss to Conor McGregor more than a year ago.

    Doane is seeking a third straight win and a second inside the Octagon. He made a successful UFC debut earlier this year with a win over Leandro Issa via submission.

    There isn't a bad play here if you are comfortable with either fighter, as the odds are so close. It's a virtual pick 'em fight, with both men near even money.

    My advice? Take a flier on the hard-hitting Brimage. He's had a tougher slate of competition at 145, and Doane could be just what he needs to get back on track.

    Prediction: Brimage

    The Play: A small play on Brimage could pay off.

Uriah Hall (-400) vs. Thiago Santos (+300)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Uriah Hall may be one of the most perplexing fighters in the UFC since coming off The Ultimate Fighter.

    On the show, Hall looked like a potential superstar. He knocked out the competition in vicious ways en route to the final. But Hall looked out of place at the finale, and Kelvin Gastelum won the TUF crown. Hall followed that up with another underwhelming performance against John Howard.

    Hall got in the win column in his last fight, defeating Chris Leben by corner stoppage after a brutal beating. He did not appear to want to beat on Leben that badly, though. 

    Thiago Santos was The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil season one runner-up, but he rebounded against Ronny Markes in convincing fashion.

    If Hall reverts to his pacifist ways inside the cage, Santos will win this fight as a significant underdog.

    Everything about the matchup makes me lean toward Hall, but at minus-400, I cannot advise making a large play on him. He is too inconsistent, and his mental state has often been called into question. That doesn't make him a good bet. Just stay away from the fight.

    Prediction: Hall

    The Play: Avoid the fight.

Stefan Struve (-165) vs. Matt Mitrione (+135)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Stefan Struve returns from his medical scare after more than a year away from the Octagon. He takes on hard-hitting heavyweight Matt Mitrione in his return bout.

    Struve is 4-1 in his last five bouts, but the last time we saw him, he was unceremoniously knocked out by Mark Hunt.

    Mitrione's last performance kept him from losing his fourth fight out of five bouts. He knocked out Shawn Jordan in March.

    The 7-foot Struve is the proper favorite in this bout for as inconsistent as Mitrione has been, but I think the American is worth a small flier. Struve does not have the strongest chin, but he loves to strike. Also, Mitrione has decent takedown defense, which will prove helpful against a less than stellar wrestler in Struve.

    I like Struve to win the fight, but I'm not completely certain, and that makes Mitrione a worthy bet as the dog.

    Prediction: Struve

    The Play: A small flier on Mitrione won't hurt.

UFC Bantamweight Championship: Ronda Rousey (-1000) vs. Alexis Davis (+600)

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    USA TODAY Sports

    There is absolutely no value in this fight.

    If you truly believe Alexis Davis will win, then more power to you and the plus-600 odds, but I do not see the upset happening this weekend in Las Vegas.

    Rousey is too good, and she has had a full training camp without distractions. This looks to be another dominant victory for the champion.

    Davis has the tools to complete an upset, but it will take Rousey making a vital error.

    At minus-1000, there is no value to be had on Rousey, and there is no way you should throw your money away on Davis without firmly believing she will win. It's not worth the chance. Just skip this fight.

    Prediction: Rousey

    The Play: Odds are too big; avoid the fight.

UFC Middleweight Championship: Chris Weidman (-190) vs. Lyoto Machida (+155)

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    David Becker/Associated Press

    Truthfully, there is value with both fighters in the main event. It comes down to who you think will win.

    Machida is chasing history. With a victory, he will join BJ Penn and Randy Couture as the only multi-division champions in UFC history. He is certainly capable of pulling out the win, as he has looked exceptional since dropping to 185 pounds.

    However, I still side with the champion.

    This is the man who defeated the greatest of all time, Anderson Silva, in back-to-back fights. While some may degrade his performances by the way in which he won, he walked out with the title belt both times. He is a quality wrestler with knockout power.

    Weidman has never been five rounds, but Machida has. That could also play a factor in this fight, but there is no reason to believe Weidman cannot go 25 minutes. His grappling game should do enough to sway the judges if he is unable to stop Machida before the final bell.

    This is a close fight, and there isn't a wrong play here, so just be modest with your bet.

    Prediction: Weidman

    The Play: A modest play on the champion.

    Complete-event parlay: Bush, Zachrich, Roop, Camozzi, Alcantara, Faber, Brimage, Hall, Mitrione, Rousey, Machida

    Full-event parlays are extremely difficult to pull off, but they can make the event a lot of fun to watch if you get off to a quick start. With extremely large favorites in Hall and Rousey, you can make up for it by taking a few of the live underdogs. Steep odds, but it can often provide you with a deeper involvement from the first fight to the last.