Handicapping the NFC: Brett Favre Is Still the Key

(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

San Francisco is showing certain signs of breaking out of their six year losing streak. They won five of their last seven games in a 7-9 2008 season. Shaun Hill had a respectable first season as a starting quarterback, and if Alex Smith can't come back from a shoulder injury, could mix well with running back Frank Gore, who ran for more than 1,000 yards last season. The 49ers signed right tackle Marvel Smith after their offensive line allowed 55 sacks, and drafted potential star Michael Crabtree to catch passes.

So IF Gore, injury prone throughout his career, stays healthy, and IF Crabtree allows Smith to reach the potential he had when he was the first overall pick in the 2005 Draft, and IF the offensive line allows fewer than 40 sacks, and IF former first round pick Manny Lawson becomes the pass rusher the 49ers thought he’d be when they drafted him in the first round in 2006, San Francisco will win their weak division.

But face it—that’s a lot of ifs.

It’s more likely Arizona will repeat as the division champion. But this is still a 9-7 team in 2008 and they appear vulnerable in 2009.

True, Kurt Warner-to-Larry Fitzgerald is the hottest passing attack in the NFL and almost single-handedly overthrew the top defense in the league in the Super Bowl, but the rest of the team ranked from mediocre to lousy statistically.

The Cardinals were only 19th in the NFL in total defense last season. They finished dead last in the NFL in rushing.

To rectify this, the Cardinals drafted running back Beanie Wells in the first round and signed cornerback Bryant McFadden away from the Steelers.

But can a glorified high second round draft choice be a 1,000-yard rusher in his rookie season? How will a defensive back that played in only 10 games last season improve a pedestrian pass rush that sacked only 31 quarterbacks last season?

Arizona likely wouldn’t have made the playoffs had they not played in the weakest division in the NFL. Thankfully, they have Matt Leinart in reserve, because by the time the rest of the team catches up to Warner-to-Fitzgerald, Warner may be 40.

So don’t expect a repeat appearance in the Super Bowl from Arizona.

One of the reasons Arizona went to the Super Bowl in the first place was because Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme threw five interceptions in the playoffs against them.

What makes the Panthers a less-than-appealing pick to win the NFC is their defense. Carolina allowed 30 or more points in six of their final eight games and more than 21 in all of them.

Moreover, to sign big-name free agents like Delhomme and defensive end Julius Peppers, the Panthers lost many of their role players, such as fullback Nick Goings and kick returner Mark Jones.

Carolina is still a good team, but is not an improved one.

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