Handicapping the NFC: Brett Favre Is Still the Key

(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

This leaves five non-playoff teams from 2008 to analyze; Chicago, New Orleans, San Francisco, Seattle and Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers are in rebuilding mode after losing their last four games of 2008 and drafting quarterback Josh Freeman in the first round. But in looking at their free agent signings and departures; are replacing Jeff Garcia with Byron Leftwich, Warrick Dunn with Derrick Ward, and wide receiver Joey Galloway with tight end Kellen Winslow really good short-term moves?

And for that matter, will Raheem Morris have the career Jon Gruden has had?

Youth may be served in Tampa Bay, but is talent?

Seattle returns several players from injury, most notably quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and the entire offensive line, and signed wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

But the Seahawks won as many games without Hasselbeck as they did with him. The depleted offensive line allowed only 36 sacks, and Seahawks rushers still gained 4.2 yards per carry during the season, but the team still went 4-12.

New head coach Jim Mora Jr. underwhelmed in Atlanta, where he once had to use a cell phone during overtime to figure out playoff possibilities and then played for a tie in a game the Falcons would eventually lose. There’s little reason to believe this team will be a championship contender.

The Chicago Bears, not to mention head coach Lovie Smith, are predicating their entire success on the acquisition of quarterback Jay Cutler.

It’s not a poor strategy. They’ve given him a running back, Matt Forte, who rushed for 1,238 yards as a rookie in 2007. They drafted a wide receiver, Juaquin Iglesias, to throw to. They even signed three offensive linemen, including left tackle Orlando Pace, so Cutler will have the time to throw and find pass catchers among his less-than-impressive receiving corps.

The problem is the defense had only 28 sacks last season and the Bears didn’t address this deficiency during the off-season.

Defense was also the problem in New Orleans last season. The Saints brought back memories of the San Diego Chargers of the early ‘80s with a top-ranked offense but a porous defense.

Quarterback Drew Brees probably won’t throw for more than 5,000 yards this season, only because head coach Sean Payton naturally will want to shift some of the offensive load to running back Reggie Bush, who replaces the released Deuce McAllister for good.

But the Saints will assuredly continue to score, and the defense will improve with a new defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, four free agent signings, and even the top three picks in the draft devoted to stopping the opponents.

The question is how much? The above formula for picking Super Bowl champs only fits the 2009 Saints if their 4-3 finish in an 8-8 2008 season qualifies as “finishing strong.”

It probably doesn’t. The Saints are an improving team, but the defense needs a year to come together before truly becoming an elite team.

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