Back to the Future: Patriots 2007 Prelude for 2009

Ron Brace was drafted to back up this group, and they still have Mike Wright to provide support.

The strength of this group is the front three, though.  I expect that the entire group will perform well, even better than last year. 

Was the reduced number of sacks due to this group’s inability to get after the quarterback, or was it due to the secondary’s poor play?  I happen to think it is the latter.

The linebacker group is actually the biggest risk/reward area for the Patriots on defense this year.  Jerod Mayo played at ILB nearly every defensive snap last year.  He and Adalius Thomas at OLB are the two best players in this group and will be the leaders. 

Longtime veteran and fan favorite Tedy Bruschi will likely platoon with second-year player Gary Guyton, who may well replace him this year in the starting lineup.

The big questions revolve around the rest of the group.   Will Pierre Woods step up and be the starter, or will Tully Banta-Cain, back from a short stint in San Francisco, take the lead role? 

Shawn Crable watched last year from IR; can he become the starter? 

Recent signee Paris Lenon is glad to join Leigh Bodden in their escape from 0-16 Detroit, but will he beat out Eric Alexander for the primary backup role behind Jerod Mayo?

Analysis

I’m not certain whether or not this is going to be a great defense, but the possibility is there.  There are going to be at least four new starters, and that could prove a bit tricky at the onset.  

Expect more pressure on the quarterback and a much better third down defense.  There are several members in their final year of their contract, so you can look for a tremendous "contract-year" result for this defense.

They won’t want to be the reason that the team couldn’t get the Lombardi trophy.  I anticipate that Tully Banta-Cain won’t make the roster, despite his experience with the defense.

End Result

Secondary (S, CB): Improved, but it remains to be seen by how much.
Defensive Line: Solid as ever, with younger players coming up.
Linebacker (OLB, ILB): Questions remain here, but this group could be improved over last season, barring injury.

Offense

The offense of the Patriots bears a striking resemblance to the record-setting 2007 group that took the league by storm.  There are differences, though, and possible changes in philosophies that could come to bear in the games ahead.

At quarterback, we’re moving ahead to the past with the return of Tom Brady.  Kevin O’Connell is unproven and untested as the backup, but then so was Matt Cassel.

It is expected (and hoped!) that he won’t get a chance to see the field much this season, except in late game mop-up duty. 

The big question on everyone’s mind won’t be answered until at least August—how healthy is Tom Brady’s knee, really?  Personally, I anticipate that it’ll be strong, but that his play won’t be quite up to the 2007 numbers.

But a 90 percent Brady is better than 99 percent of other quarterbacks playing at their best.  I look for 4,300-plus yards and 32-36 touchdowns, perhaps with 12 interceptions.

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