Kentucky Derby: Looking for Long Shots
What exactly does a 20 horse field mean? Anything can happen. A favorite like Big Brown who draws the 20 post may never be able to recover if he gets a bad break. A horse on placed on the rail might push to the front of the pack and fail to pace themselves for the long run. A horse in the the middle of the pack can easily be boxed inside a few horse and regardless of their pace be unable to break free from the pack.
One thing is for sure though, a 20 horse field equals a great payout. With a favorite at morning line 3-1 and only 3 horses in the single digit odds, any trifecta combination is sure to make for a nice payout.
Here are some horses to consider for your exotics that all come in at double digit morning line odds.
14 Monba (15-1) : Coming off an impressive win at the Blue Grass, Monba is hitting stride at just the right time. After struggling in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, Monba responded to with a third win in five races. Monba also won his only other showing at Churchill. One concern would be that Edgar Prado, who was the jockey for Monba in the previous two races is riding Adriano for the derby. Still at 15-1 I'm able to look past the Fountain of Youth showing hoping at 15-1 Monba can at least show in the Derby. Never doubt Ramon Dominguez.
19 Gayego (15-1) If you are looking for consistency Gayego could be your choice. Finishing in the Top 2 in all of his 5 starts this year. Gayego proved in winning the Arkansas Derby that he can win off of the Synthetic Surface. Gayego has improved as the distance has improved pointed him well for the two turns. The Arkansas Derby was also a deeper field of 13 which should bode well as preparation for what will be a crowded derby field.
4 Court Vision (20-1) Despite two bad trips in the Wood Memorial and the Fountain of Youth, Court Vision found a way to make it into the money. The distance and the two turns should favor this closer, who could be benefit from a grueling pace up front. Another horse who is one for one at Churchill, look for the third time to be a charm for Garrett Go Go Gomez and Court Vision.
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