Too Early To Tell: A Rant About Pre-Season Polls

(Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Sports Illustrated college football columnist Stewart Mandel had it right when talking about college football polls:

"...Comparing two or more teams...that don't necessarily play the same opponents and whose most recent performance may or may not have been affected by injuries, venue, weather, kick-off time, a bad call by an official, or all of the above is only slightly less subjective that ranking those Celebrity Break-ups."

But if stacking various teams against each other throughout fall competition in a coherently and objective manner is difficult enough, imagine doing so before any of the teams have played a single game!

However, that is exactly what pundits from all over the country attempt every year—from just about the end of one BCS championship game, all the way up to the new season's kickoff.

This year's Cal squad may be a perfect demonstration of how these preseason polls are (at best) exercises in educated guessing, and (often self-admittedly) conducted way too early. The 2009 Bears are featured in five major national polls, but are ranked as high as ninth (Phil Steele) and as low as 21st (Sporting News).

In one poll, they're national title contenders—in the other, Holiday Bowl-bound.

15 Bear starters come back this season, headlined by a Heisman candidate in running back Jahvid Best. This may have been all Phil Steele needed to hear to laud Cal with a top-10 ranking.

However, the folks at Sporting News may have looked closely and noted that of the 15 starters returning, only two are from the offensive line that ploughed Best's running lanes and protected the quarterback.

Perhaps they looked keenly at what happened to last season's preseason No. 1, Georgia, who also had a future NFL back in Knowshon Moreno, but had significant question marks on the line.

We'll never know for sure how the line gels until September 5, but clearly some differing predictions are already being made in July.

And what about the incoming recruiting class? College fans go crazy about prized recruits and signing day has become a national event. They must be important to take into consideration!

But, in reality, what can more uncertain in evaluating a team that has yet to take the field than incorporating predictions about players who have yet to play a college football game?

They may end up buried on the depth chart behind a veteran, or have grade issues, or redshirt. Considering some of the polls come out before summer camp even starts, it goes without saying that this criteria is also pure speculation.

With the unfounded nature of the preseason polls, one may wonder why fans across the country go crazy about them, constantly defending their team's case if feeling slighted.

After all, basketball polls have been released, as well—why do the football ones attract the attention?

Because Division I college football relies on polls, not a tournament, to eventually determine the national champion (and the contestants in the championship game).

This means that a team's fate can often be determined—for better or for worse—by a poll position before the season even starts.

As Oklahoma showed in 2003, a high initial ranking can compensate for a late-season blunder.

But in the cases of undefeated teams Utah, Boise State, and Auburn, an adverse poll position can be insurmountable.

Opponents hope the influence of this arbitrary and anti-meritocratic system will be reduced by the implementation of a playoff, or at least official polling that starts into the season.

But speculating as to whether or not these changes are implemented is like ranking 25 teams before they play a single game:

It's too early to tell.

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