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Week 16, at the New York Giants
2008 Record: 11-5
2008 Offensive Rank: 7th (18th in passing, 1st in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 5th (8th in Passing, 9th against the run)
In the most entertaining game the Panthers played last year, the New York Giants edged Carolina in overtime in New York. NFL executives liked it so much they arranged for a rematch in 2009.
That contest was marked by solid rushing efforts by both teams. Unfortunately, the Panthers were without Maake Kemoeatu, their big run stuffer in the middle. When Damione Lewis went down as well, it set the table for Derrick Ward's stat-killing run that won it for the Giants at the end of the game.
These two teams match up well together, and this should be another great contest between them.
The Giants will be coming off a bruising game on Monday night against the Redskins, and will be in the thick of a difficult stretch run.
Given that they go through the rest of the NFC East in the three games before this, and that they've got a short week, they could be a little dinged up for this matchup.
In addition the winds in the Meadowlands this time of year make it difficult for all quarterbacks. This game will be decided on the ground.
Which may suit the Giants fine. They have Brandon Jacobs, after all, and Ahmad Bradshaw should work out well as a solid No. 2 back. The Giants also drafted a real sleeper in Andre Brown out of N.C. State, so the three-headed attack may be alive and well in New York even with Derrick Ward's departure to Tampa Bay.
The Giants' passing game may be a problem. Eli Manning needs a big posession receiver who can stretch the field, and he may not have one this year. Last year, when Plaxico Burress was in the lineup, Manning posted an average rating of 102.7. Without Burress, he had an average of 68.6.
There's hope that UNC's Hakeem Nicks can fill the void left by Burress, but first-round receivers are never sure things.
On the bright side, the offensive line is in great shape, and they have a good receiving threat at tight end in Kevin Boss. Still, the Giants' offense won't scare anyone.
The defense is another story. They have the ability to bring an enormous amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Mathias Kiwanuka in rotation are bad enough. Add an interior of Chris Canty and Barry Cofield with all of their bench talent, and it's easy to see why the Giants can bring more pressure than anyone else in the league.
The line is so good, it helps mask their relative weaknesses at linebacker. They signed Michael Boley from Atlanta, but Antonio Pierce is showing his age, and Danny Clark doesn't scare anyone.
In the secondary, Corey Webster has the makings of a star cornerback, and the monster rush generated by the front four helps make Aaron Ross look like one too.
The best defensive back the Giants have is at safety with second-year man Kenny Phillips. As a group, this secondary is fast, talented, and solid all-around.
So, while the Giants defense may be a little soft in the middle, it's still good enough to be among the league's elite. If they aren't too banged up, it could be a very tough game for Jake Delhomme and company.
Be that as it may, last year the Giants' defense looked pretty good, too. Yet DeAngelo Williams rushed for 108 yards and four touchdowns, and Jonathan Stewart added 30 more of his own.
The Panthers rang up 28 points on the home team, and had Kasay not sailed wide right at the end of regulation, they would have won.
Since he's been in Carolina, John Fox has faced the Giants at the Meadowlands three times, winning two and forcing the third to overtime. At first glance, this looks like a tough game, but the Panthers are more than capable of stealing the victory.
Carolina has a 3-2 edge against the New York Giants.
Week 17, The New Orleans Saints
2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 1st (1st in Passing, 28th in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 23rd (23rd in Passing, 17th against the run)
Lets assume things have gone right for the Panthers. They've stayed healthy, and the defense has improved somewhat. Sure they play some tough teams, but they're a tough team, too.
If that's the case, Carolina may come into this game with a 10-5 record, maybe scoring upsets against Dallas and New York and getting a win in Arizona. As they did in 2008, they've protected their home turf.
But New Orleans hasn't been a slouch either. After a slow start, they'll probably be one of the better teams in the league right now. They'll have a killer offense, and the defense won't be a slouch either.
In 2008, the Saints had a better defense than the 11-5 Falcons. They'll likely improve on that in 2009.
New Orleans will be deadly at home, but they don't play nearly as well on the road. Last year, they were 6-2 at home and 2-6 on the road. Much of that could be due to quarterback play.
At home, Drew Brees enjoyed a stellar quarterback rating of 115.1. On the road, it was a much more pedestrian 80.3.
That's not unusual for an NFL quarterback, but when so much of the offense in New Orleans is centered on Brees' play, it's no wonder they stumbled on the road in 2008.
This season should be no different. The Saints did little in the offseason to improve their running attack, which was one of the worst in the league. They're invested in their quarterback, and why not? He may threaten Marino's record again.
Their defense will likely be much better. Like the rest of the South, the Saints will be facing much better offenses than they did in 2008, but the talent level will improve even if the stats don't.
Even though they'll be starting slow, this team should be at or around the 9-6 mark right now. So if they win, they'll get the benefit of a tiebreaker on the Panthers; if both teams finish 10-6, the Saints will go to the playoffs, and the Panthers may be on the outside looking in.
This will be a big-time game for both teams. But the Saints are on the road, and if the Panthers and the crowd can rattle Brees at all, they won't be able to keep up with the playmaking ability of Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams.
That's a big if though. Brees hasn't earned a reputation as a big-time quarterback by folding under pressure.
The Panthers will have all the advantages in this game, but they'll need to step it up anyway to finish the season with a win. Kind of makes you glad Delhomme's under center, huh?
Look for a big win here, whether things are going well or not.
Carolina leads the series 16-12.
Conclusion
The NFL schedule-makers certainly did a good job providing for some entertaining and competitive games this December.
To be sure, many Carolina fans would prefer a slate of pushovers to finish the year, but that type of schedule doesn't make any team playoff-ready.
The Panthers will probably split these games. Aside from New England, all of them are very winnable, and every game is meaningful to the Panthers. Unfortunately, these games are meaningful to their opponents as well.
Carolina will have one of the strongest running games in the league. If the defense plays as well as Meeks' past defenses, they'll be more than capable of a split here and of winning the division.
During the last four games, a split will probably be enough to put the Panthers in the playoffs. And if they can get there with their starters largely intact, expect a little more success than they had last year.
And that will suit Panthers fans just fine.
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