Yeah, yeah. I know. There's been a lot of bold talk about the Nationals in the wake of their 98-win season in 2012. Rather than live up to it, they've kept finding ways to not live up to it.
But things are going to be different this time.
To start, the Nats are already heating up. Their 3-0 win over the Atlanta Braves on Saturday pushed their record in their last 21 games to 13-8 after a 25-27 start, as well as nudged them into first place in the NL East. They're playing the best ball they've played all season.
And the computers don't expect things to let up. The projections at FanGraphs have the Nationals slated for a 49-40 record the rest of the way. No other NL team was projected for more wins the rest of the way.
And 49-40 may be a conservative projection. After all, one thing we know is...
Washington's Excellent Starting Pitching Isn't Going Anywhere
Coming into 2014, it was easy to look at the Nationals' starting pitching and conclude it would be a strength.
And more of the same isn't too much to ask.
Now that Gio Gonzalez is back healthy, the Nationals have a rotation of him, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark. The average ERA of that fivesome is 3.31, and Dan Szymborski's rest-of-season ZiPS projections (via FanGraphs) expect it to stay that way:
|Player||ERA So Far||Projected ERA|
ZiPS doesn't see each guy continuing to be what he's been the rest of the way. But with only Roark projected for a big drop-off, and Strasburg and Gonzalez projected to get better, it makes sense that the group as a whole will continue to be about as reliable as it's been.
Again, the Nationals will take that. It's what they've gotten so far, and what they've gotten so far has been good enough for the most part.
But we should also recognize that the potential of Washington's starting five is better than a 3.30-something ERA. A lot better, at that.
This is sort of already self-evident. While Gonzalez is just now returning from a monthlong stint on the disabled list, the other four starters in Washington's rotation have been hot as blazes:
|Stephen Strasburg||Last 12 GS||79.0||10.0||1.3||.658||2.51|
|Tanner Roark||Last 11 GS||71.1||7.1||1.8||.583||2.27|
|Jordan Zimmermann||Last 10 GS||65.0||6.8||1.2||.614||2.49|
|Doug Fister||Last 8 GS||53.1||5.8||1.0||.621||2.03|
That Roark has pitched as well as he has is surprising. But the same can't be said of Strasburg, Zimmermann and Fister, nor will it be surprising if Gonzalez follows suit and gets on a roll of his own. These are four guys with track records of dominance, and they're all still in their respective primes. They absolutely have it in them to be the best foursome of starters in either league.
As they've proven in the last month, the Nationals could do enough damage the rest of the way if they only get great starting pitching. What promises to make them even more dangerous is how...
More Offense and Defense Is on the Way
While Washington's starting pitching has lived up to expectations this season, the club's offense and defense haven't.
Washington's offense has been inconsistent from day one and presently ranks eighth in the NL in runs and OPS. The club's defense has been even worse off, as Baseball Prospectus has its defensive efficiency—all that does is measure the rate at which teams turn batted balls into outs—ranking at No. 22.
Then again, this is what happens when injuries strike.
On Opening Day, manager Matt Williams used this lineup:
That's a solid collection of names. The order Williams chose was a bit odd, sure, but he could have gone any number of other ways and still had a well-balanced lineup.
But one member of Washington's Opening Day lineup was lost to the disabled list immediately, and that kicked off a steady trend of key players hitting the DL. The Nats lost Wilson Ramos, Denard Span, Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper to the DL in April, Adam LaRoche in May and Ramos again earlier in June.
But that's going to change soon.
The Nationals are presently missing only Ramos and Harper, and both are due back soon. Ramos, sidelined with a hamstring injury since June 11, has already begun a rehab assignment. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Saturday that Harper, sidelined with a thumb sprain since April 27, is up next:
#Nationals' Bryce Harper cleared to play by doctor. Will begin rehabilitation assignment at Class A Potomac.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 21, 2014
Don't underestimate the potential impact of Ramos' return. He hasn't been able to get on track in 2014, but he had a .779 OPS in 2011 and a .777 OPS in 2013. He'll be a much-needed offensive upgrade at catcher if he regains that form. As a bonus, he's pretty good on defense too.
Underestimate the potential impact of Harper's return even less. He was an easy target while he slumped through early April, but he was just heating up with a .345 batting average and a .950 OPS over 16 games when he hit the DL. And before 2014, you'll recall he was one of the NL's 20 best hitters between 2012 and 2013.
Add Ramos and Harper to a lineup that already features at least four above-average hitters in LaRoche, Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon, and the Nationals offense is bound to transform into one of the top units in the National League.
Which, for the record, is something we've seen before from this offense when it's had all or most of its core pieces in one place:
|2nd Half, 2012||2||1||4||5||2||2|
|2nd Half, 2013||2||1||3||T-2||1||1|
As noted by Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post, the one negative of the band getting back together is that the Nats don't have open spots for everyone—especially now that the club's defense has improved with Rendon at third base and Zimmerman in left field, territory formerly roamed by Harper.
But the dilemma has an easy solution that would strengthen both Washington's defense and its bench: Bump Span from center so Harper can play there every day.
Harper told Adam Kilgore of the Post earlier this month that center is where he wants to play, and he rightfully noted, "My numbers are a lot better in center field." Per FanGraphs, the advanced metrics rated Harper as one of MLB's best defensive center fielders when he played there regularly in 2012.
By comparison, the metrics have Span down as an average-to-below-average defender in 2014. Factor in his modest .713 OPS, and making him more of a part-time player is in Washington's best interest.
That the Nationals shouldn't lose their starting pitching advantage the rest of the way is good. That they stand to get more offense and better defense the rest of the way is even better.
As for the cherry on top, that would be how...
Their Remaining Schedule Isn't So Tough
At the least, the good news is that the Nationals will only have nine games remaining with the Braves after Sunday. Given that they're 36-28 against teams not named the Braves, that means their schedule looks easier even without a closer inspection.
But that's where there's more good news: Upon closer inspection, the Nationals actually are going to have it fairly easy the rest of the way.
Their final 88 games will be played against the following opponents:
|Los Angeles Dodgers||41-35||3|
|New York Mets||34-41||13|
|San Francisco Giants||44-30||3|
While only half of their 14 upcoming opponents are sub-.500 clubs, it's the 49 games against those clubs that make for the bulk of the Nationals' remaining games. And even if you remove the increasingly respectable Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, you're still left with 43 games against opponents the Nats should be able to beat up on.
Such is how the Nationals are going to get to the top of the National League. They'll soon have more than just great starting pitching to carry them, and the path ahead is a smooth one.
Besides, they're bound to live up to the hype eventually, right?
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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