NBA Surprise Players: Top Underdogs For Each Team in 2009-10

Greg Haefner by Senior Analyst Written on July 01, 2009
PHILADELPHIA - APRIL 30:  Lou Williams #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers walks with his jersey in his mouth against the Orlando Magic during Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals at Wachovia Center on April 30, 2009 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images) (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)
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In 25 games as a starter last year, Pietrus averaged 11.7 PPG and 4.0 RPG while still losing minutes to rookie Courtney Lee. With Lee now in New Jersey, Pietrus will not have to share his minutes nearly as much, and it is not inconceivable for him to average somewhere around 15-17 PPG this year.

Philadelphia 76ers: Lou Williams, G

Last season, Lou Williams played admirably for the 76ers, averaging 12.8 PPG in 23.7 MPG while appearing in 81 contests.

While Williams didn't start a single game for Philadelphia, in the 22 games where Williams was on the floor for 28+ minutes, he averaged  17.7 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2.5 RPG and 1.2 SPG. And in the nine games where he played 30+ minutes? 19.7 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.0 RPG and 1.8 SPG.

With Andre Miller appearing to be on the way out and a very raw rookie in Jrue Holiday joining the team, new 76ers coach Eddie Jordan will likely look to Williams to handle the bulk of the minutes at point guard, which means he should average somewhere between 28-30 minutes per contest, and likely will be able to sustain averages close to the ones listed all year.

Phoenix Suns: Robin Lopez, C

This one was pretty obvious. With Shaq leaving Phoenix, Robin Lopez is in line to become a starter in his second season, and should post good numbers in Phoenix's up-tempo style.

In the 11 of games last year where Lopez saw 20+ minutes of floor time, he averaged 6.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG and 1.8 BPG. When he played 25+ minutes? 9.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 1.8 BPG. He should post higher numbers than those if he locks down a starting job this summer, which he most likely will.

Portland Trailblazers: Jerryd Bayless, G

Jerryd Bayless is in an interesting position. The Trailblazers have been rumored to be interested in Andre Miller, possibly in a sign-and-trade deal involving Steve Blake. If this happened, Bayless would still be my surprise player.

Why? Simple. He compliments the style of both Blake and Miller perfectly.

Miller and Blake are both true point guards who look to set up teammates before scoring themselves. Bayless is the opposite, a scoring point guard who will look to fill it up and get his own looks before sharing the rock. Last season Bayless had some trouble as a rookie after playing just one year of college ball at Arizona, averaging a disappointing 4.3 PPG. But with Sergio Rodriguez gone, Bayless becomes the primary backup to whoever starts at point for the Blazers in 2009-10, and should see a nice pickup in his PPG category, and it is possible he cracks double-digit PPG as a sophomore.

Sacramento Kings: Jason Thompson, F

The Kings not landing the top pick in the draft was a blessing in disguise for Jason Thompson. With Blake Griffin not landing in Sacramento, the path has cleared for Thompson to become a full-time starter in his second season.

In the 56 games he started last season, the rookie showed a great deal of promise by posting averages of 12.3 PPG and 7.8 RPG. With a year of experience under his belt to make him better and a rookie point guard relying on him to be a scoring threat, Thompson should step up this year and see his averages increase on a young and promising Sacramento team.

San Antonio Spurs: Drew Gooden, F/C

Assuming Rasheed Wallace doesn't sign with the Spurs, Drew Gooden looks to be in line for a solid increase in minutes in 2009-10. Last year Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas averaged 12.5 and 17.8 MPG, respectively. With both of those players gone, Gooden will be picking up the slack down low.

After playing for three teams last season (Chicago, Sacramento, San Antonio), Gooden was obviously not able to establish great chemistry with any one team. With a full offseason to establish chemistry in San Antonio, Gooden may even be able to push Matt Bonner for the Spurs' fifth starting spot. If he does, look for some solid production. In his last full season as a starter (2006-07), Gooden averaged 11.1 PPG and 8.5 RPG. It would make sense to expect similar numbers if Gooden starts for the Spurs this year.

Of course this is all contingent on Gooden staying in San Antonio, which most likely depends on the Rasheed Wallace situation.

Toronto Raptors: Joey Graham, G/F

Joey Graham is in a great position this upcoming year. The drafting of DeMar DeRozan likely means that Anthony Parker will walk, and with Shawn Marion also departing in free agency, Graham looks like he will take over a starting spot this season.

With DeRozan being far from a finished product, Raptors coach Jay Triano will likely look to start a veteran at the shooting guard position. This means that even if Toronto makes a move for Hedo Turkoglu, Graham is in position to start.

In 10 games as a starter last season, Graham averaged 11.1 PPG and 4.0 RPG. This season he could post even better numbers as he develops chemistry with the other Raptors starters.

Utah Jazz: Kosta Koufos, C

Even with Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer staying, Kosta Koufos looks like he could surprise in Utah next season. This is because with Boozer and Okur "opting in" for the 2009-10 season, matching any offer made to restricted free agent Paul Millsap will be easier said than done. If Millsap walks, then Koufos is in line to be the primary backup big for the Jazz.

Millsap averaged 13.5 PPG and 8.6 RPG in 30.1 MPG last season. When Koufos was on the floor for 25+ minutes, he averaged 10.6 PPG and 6.8 RPG. If Koufos is given playing time in 2009-10 that is even remotely similar to the time given to Millsap in 2008-09, the results could be very good for both him and the Jazz.

Washington Wizards: Randy Foye, G

Last year Randy Foye was relied on as the secondary scoring option for a dreadful Timberwolves team prior to Al Jefferson's injury, and the primary scoring option after it. He responded by averaging 16.3 PPG despite receiving very few open looks.

In Washington, open looks will be bountiful for Foye, as he will be playing with the likes of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. So what does that mean for Foye? Likely a slight increase in scoring, three-point percentage and field goal percentage. Last year he shot 40.7 percent from the field and 36.0 percent from beyond the arc. This year, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see his three-point percentage top 40 percent.

He may not have a dramatic increase in his scoring output, but he will settle nicely into a role that allows him to get open looks and not be relied on to carry a team. Washington fans are goin to love Foye as a sidekick to Arenas, Butler and Jamison.

Well, that's my prediction for who to watch out for on each team in the NBA this season. Please keep in mind that I do not know for sure what will happen in free agency or trades, and cannot see into the future. These are simply my predictions based on previous stats combined with my opinion.

Hope you enjoyed reading this, and I hope you enjoy the 2009-10 NBA season.

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written on July 01, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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