(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Week Eight, at the Arizona Cardinals
2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 4th (second in passing, 32nd in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 19th (22nd in Passing, 16th against the run)
Payback time.
For any Panther fan, that's about all that needs to be said here, but let's look at the Cards anyway.
The Cardinals of 2009 will look a lot like the team that finished 2008, but only on the surface. Both offensive coordinator Todd Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast are now in Kansas City, and they also had to replace running back Edgerrin James and defensive end Antonio Smith.
The biggest problem they face this year though, is history. In this decade, the Super Bowl runner-up has made the playoffs just once, and that was because they were in the worst division in football. Well, given that the Cardinals also play there they may still have some hope.
But Arizona has two big question marks. The first is their defense; will it play at the level it maintained in the 2008 playoffs? The second is their quarterback, Kurt Warner.
No one will dispute that he's a good quarterback when he has time. But Warner will be 38 when the season starts. He also just signed a 2-year contract, so he's not playing for a payday. And even though he spent 2008 in good shape, he has an injury history.
If he stays healthy, he should put up MVP-like numbers. At receiver the Cardinals return Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and the all-world Larry Fitzgerald, who may be the best player at his position in the NFL.
Arizona didn't have much of a running game in 2008, and brought in help this year in the form of first round pick Beanie Wells.
The only question marks for the Arizona offense are on the line. They allowed 28 sacks in 2008. The linemen are all coming back, so there may be some bonus for continuity there, but none of them are particularly good and they can't run-block.
Still, any fair appraisal of the Cardinal offense will end with the question of just how you stop them. They were great in 2008, and they're going to be great in 2009.
If Arizona's defense plays like they did in the playoffs, this team bucks history and gets back to the big game. But that's a huge if, particularly with Smith's departure.
Arizona has no pass rush. They're going to try and address that this year by alternating between a 4-3 and 3-4 alignment, and increasing the pressure from the outside.
Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell should both work well at the end positions regardless of the alignment, but inside there could be a problem, as their nose tackle is coming off his second knee surgery in as many years.
In the 3-4, Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry will line up in the outside linebacker spots.
That's not ideal, as Okeafor got just 4.5 sacks in 2008 and will be 33 this season. Bertrand Berry led the team with five sacks last season. But he turns 34 in August, and he's missed 23 games the past four years.
At inside linebacker the Cardinals have one of the best in the league in Karlos Dansby, and they also have a great secondary anchored by cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the newly acquired Bryant McFadden.
So it looks pretty good on the surface. But again the problem of no pressure persists. Even the best corners in the league can't keep a receiver blanketed for the entire play--give any quarterback enough time and he'll find an open man.
And given that the Cardinals are mediocre against the run, that almost writes the script on how to beat them. Run the ball, eat up clock, and make Warner and Fitzgerald try and beat you from the bench.
The Panthers are just the sort of team that can pull a plan like that off. And there are a couple of guarantees for this game. First, the Panthers won't run it down the field in the first drive and then rely on Jake and Jake alone the rest of the game.
Second, there will be someone on Larry Fitzgerald at all times. Count on it.
And count on one of the best efforts from a Panthers team in years. This is a great candidate for a victory on the road.
Carolina leads the series 6-3
Week Nine, at the New Orleans Saints
2008 Record: 8-8
2008 Offensive Rank: First (1st in passing, 28th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 23rd (23rd in Passing, 17th against the run)
After Arizona, this is going to feel like an "out of the frying pan, into the fire" game for the Carolina defense. And for the second straight week, the offense will be having fun out there.
The 2008 edition of the New Orleans Saints was marked by an ability to seemingly move the ball at will. But as effective as they were on offense, they were bad on defense. To address this, they added two critical pieces to their team.
The first is attitude. The Saints brought in defensive coordinator Greg Williams to add toughness, but as he showed in Jacksonville there's only so much you can do when you don't have strong personnel.
Williams' scheme is fast, attacking, and oriented towards forcing turnovers. The secondary is required to blitz, cover, and tackle. Without talent though, there's not a lot that can be done.
So the Saints went out and signed Jabari Greer from Buffalo to play at one cornerback position and at the other will probably go with Tracy Porter, who looked good in the 10 games he played last year.
Roman Harper will likely line up at strong safety while the second critical piece of their defensive rebuild will take the free safety spot, former Ohio State star Malcolm Jenkins.
Jenkins is just a rookie, but he should immediately become the most talented player in the New Orleans secondary.
The linebackers boast the presence of Jonathan Vilma, but they also return Scott Fujita and Scott Schanle. Both topped 100 tackles a year ago, but when the tackles are coming five yards off the line of scrimmage that's not a lot to brag about.
On the line, Sedrick Ellis had a decent rookie year, but had to deal with nagging injury issues. He could use some help inside but didn't really get much. The Saints signed Rod Colman from Atlanta, but he's 33 and not known for his ability to stuff the run.
At the ends, the Saints have two chronic underachievers in Charles Grant and Will Smith. Both of them will miss the first four games in 2009 for violating in the League's drug policy.
On offense the Saints return Drew Brees, who's possibly the best .500 NFL quarterback in history.
In ways he personifies the Saints. No one gets better stats, but his lifetime record as a starter is just 55-51.
Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas will return in the backfield, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey will be healthy, and the line will be good again. There's no reason to think the Saints won't score as much as they did in 2009. This is the best offense in the NFL.
But last year the best offense in the NFL did nothing more than break even. The Saints were terrible on the road in 2008, and couldn't win the close games.
Look for the Saints to stumble out of the gate again, largely due to a complete inability to pressure the opposing quarterback.
They probably won't get hit by injuries again like they did in 2008, but regardless of the reason, missed games are missed games. Losing both ends for the first four games hurts, particularly for a coach who's not known for fast starts.
By this time though, they'll be turning their season around. They'll be fresh off a home game against Atlanta, a team they've owned in recent years, and they'll be at home and fired up.
But at the same time, Jake Delhomme has an 8-2 record against the Saints, and is undefeated in the Superdome.
New Orleans won't stop Carolina, and Carolina probably won't stop the Saints. Between these two teams there's never a guarantee, and the winner of this one will probably be whoever wins the turnovers battle.
Carolina leads the series 16-12
Conclusion
After the first four games, this quarter almost looks like a breather. There are at least two very winnable games here in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and even though they're playing on the road the Panthers have won a lot in both Arizona and New Orleans.
Don't be surprised at a 3-1 quarter here. If the injuries have been manageable and the defense has responded to Meeks' system, don't be surprised at 4-0 either.
As in 2008, when the Panthers can run at will they're probable winners. And none of these four teams has what it takes to shut them down.
Barring a total collapse, the Panthers will be at least 4-4 at the end of this quarter. There's a very good chance at 5-3, and 6-2 isn't out of the question. That's good news heading into the third quarter.
The Panthers have not been great in November under John Fox, but this year they'll get three of four games at home and all four look like good candidates for W's.
More on that next week though, when we explore the third quarter of 2009.
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