Fantasy Football: Predicting a "Breakout Candidate"

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

  Rookie number two on the list.  Johnson ran the fastest combine 40 time out of anyone in the draft last season, clocked with a robust 4.24 seconds.  He let his speed know on the field as well, garnering 1,228 yards on 251 carries, for a stellar 4.8 ypa while also adding in nine touchdowns.  Look for Johnson to improve upon these numbers since LenDale White, (the other back in this rbbc) is not looked too highly upon amongst the Tennessee Staff.

  -Matt Forte-

  The third and final rookie on this list.  Forte enjoyed perhaps the best rookie season of any player this decade in terms of fantasy production in his first season in the bigs.  He was the starter from day one, and boy, did he let know that he was the starter.  Forte rushed the ball a ridiculous 316 times, and caught the ball an equally ridiculous 63 times for a grand total of 1,715 total yards, and 12 scores.  Of the three rooks, I feel that Matty F has the highest chance of failing to meet his previous seasons' statistics, just because they were so crazy.

  -DeAngelo Williams-

  The Panther had a season for the ages last year.  Like many on this list, Williams had improved statistically in each of his seasons in the league.  In 2006, (his rookie season), he rushed the ball 121 times for 501 yards and a score.  Then in 2007, he ran with the ball 23 more times for 216 more yards and an additional three scores.  And then there was last season:  273 carries, 1,515 yards, 20 total TDs.  It is important to note that his ypa went up each season as well.

  -Matt Schaub-

  I know what you are thinking, "How can a guy who missed five games last season be considered a "breakout player"?  Well i'll tell you why.  Despite the fact that he missed nearly 1/3 of the season, he still managed to pass for over 3,000 yards and 15 scores.  That's Matt Ryan's numbers in 1/3 less the time.  Schaub had talent to work with, (especially with Slaton's emergence) and is looking at a dandy season next year.

  -Aaron Rodgers-

  After three seasons of waiting on the bench in favor of old man Favre, Rodgers finally got his chance to show his stuff last season.  And show his stuff he did to the tune of 4,038 passing yards and 28 touchdowns compared to just 13 interceptions.  Rodgers is an example that opportunity can make flourish.

  So with all this in check, let's look at a simpler and more mathematical way to look at the above "reasons" as to why these players achieved such high success.

  Forty percent of the "break-outs" showed statistical improvement each year.

  Thirty percent of the "break-outs" were rookies in a position to start.

  Ten percent of the "break-outs" benefited from a key departure on their team.

  Ten percent of the "break-outs" benefitted from a key addition on their team.

  Ten percent of the "break-outs" benefited from joining a new team.

 
  With that in mind, here are ten players who show one of those pre-requisites for this upcoming season.

  Chris "Beanie" Wells- (Rookie in position to start).
  Michael Crabtree- (Rookie in position to start).
  Derrick Ward- (New team).
  Kyle Orton- (New team).
  Jerricho Cotchery- (Key departure from team).
  Domenik Hixon- (Key departure(s) from team).
  Donnie Avery- (Key departure from team).
  Anthony Gonzalez- (Key departure from team).
  Devin Hester- (Key addition to team).
  Greg Olsen- (Key addition to team).

  Target these "break-out candidates", and you will sure assume some middle-late round stars on your roster.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?