Handicapping the AFC from a Steelers' Perspective

(Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

San Diego will improve. If, for instance, the Chargers beat every team that didn’t make the playoffs in 2008 on their schedule and lose to every one that did, they’ll still finish 10-6.

That still won’t be enough to compete with the elite of the AFC. Though Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman returns, San Diego finished dead last in the AFC in pass defense, yet they did not draft anyone for the secondary until the fifth round and signed no impact free agents.

This leaves four teams to challenge the Steelers; the aforementioned upstart Texans, a long-shot pick, and Baltimore, Miami, and New England. 

What the Ravens figure to do better than the Steelers in 2009 is protect the passer, as Baltimore allowed 16 fewer sacks in 2008 than Pittsburgh and drafted tackle Michael Oher in the first round.

They'll also rush for more yards. Pittsburgh has a talented trio of running backs in Parker, Mendenhall, and rookie Frank Summers, but so does Baltimore with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain, and Ray Rice.

There’s just something about Ray Rice not being able to crack the Ravens' starting lineup that makes the trio stand out a bit more than the Steelers'.  

But Pittsburgh will likely have a superior passing attack. Joe Flacco is good, but he doesn’t have the receivers Roethlisberger does.

It is hard to decipher any really big advantage either defense has when compared to the other. Pittsburgh was ranked at the top of the NFL last season and has a superior pass rush, but Baltimore hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than two seasons.

Both teams will be trying out new cornerbacks. Baltimore does lose inside linebacker Bart Scott, who went with former defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to the Jets, but it appears the primary question in assessing these two teams is if the Steelers can improve their pass protection and if the Ravens can develop a receiver to compliment Derrick Mason.

There’s a lot to like about Miami—a great ground game, led by Ronnie Brown.

Former West Virginia quarterback Pat White should add new dimensions to the Wildcat formation with a run/pass option Brown does not posess, linebacker Joey Porter, who accumulated 17 ½ sacks last season, is still in his prime at 32, and Chad Pennington is the Dolphins’ best quarterback since Dan Marino.

What makes the Dolphins so intriguing is they addressed so many of their needs through free agency and the draft. Miami had the worst pass defense of any team in the AFC with a winning record, so they brought in free safety Gibril Wilson from Oakland and cornerback Eric Green from Arizona while drafting cornerbacks Vontae Davis in the first round and 6’3” Sean Smith in the third.

Those who say the Dolphins’ 11-6 record was buoyed by a last-place schedule should acknowledge Miami did not lose a single game to a team with a losing record in 2008.

That leaves the New England Patriots, and, despite not making the playoffs, they finished 4-0 and will be replacing Cassel with Brady. They fit the formula.

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