2014 NBA Draft Lottery: Examining Odds and Potential Scenarios for Top Picks

Chris RolingFeatured ColumnistMay 19, 2014

NBA basketball players, from left, Washington Wizards' Bradley Beal, Minnesota Timberwolves' Kevin Love and Portland Trailblazers' Damian Lillard represent their teams during the NBA draft lottery, Tuesday, May 21, 2013 in New York. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
Jason DeCrow/Associated Press

During Tuesday's NBA draft lottery, the landscape of the league will be forever altered.

Part of this has to do with just how talented the prospects near the top truly are. Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Co. make this one of the most important lotteries in recent memory.

The majority of the equation is simply how teams slot into place. An event that has been the subject of much scrutiny over the years will once again have the eyes of the globe as the league gets an infusion of elite talent.

Here's a look at the current odds:

2014 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
1Milwaukee Bucks25.0%
2Philadelphia 76ers19.9%
3Orlando Magic15.6%
4Utah Jazz11.9%
5Boston Celtics8.8%
6Los Angeles Lakers6.3%
7Sacramento Kings3.6%
8Detroit Pistons3.5%
9Cleveland Cavaliers1.7%
10New Orleans Pelicans1.1%
11Denver Nuggets0.8%
12New York Knicks0.7%
13Minnesota Timberwolves0.6%
14Phoenix Suns0.5%

Don't expect those to be the rule. Three teams get slotted into the top three while the rest will be sorted into the final spots based on record.

As ESPN NBA Insider Chad Ford notes, there are a few different ways this could play out:

Good luck with the guessing game.

Want to know how a lottery team kills it? Ask ESPN.com's Marc Stein:

There may not be a Tim Duncan in the class, but one Kevin Love may be involved some way. According to A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com, the Boston Celtics are apparently comfortable giving up their lottery selection in exchange for the Minnesota Timberwolves star:

The Boston Celtics are reportedly willing to offer up their lottery pick in next month's draft in a package to obtain Minnesota Timberwolves star Kevin Love. The Celtics don't have the kind of high-level talent to swing a deal for Love that some other suitors, such as Golden State and Chicago, can offer Minnesota. But they do have several draft picks at their disposal in the coming years, which can help speed up the Timberwolves' rebuilding efforts following Love's departure.

As for those other trade rumors swirling around the apparently trigger-happy Celtics, coach Brad Stevens says to pump the breaks, via Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk:

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. As far as actual lottery-day scenarios, plenty of teams may be on the verge of giving up their selections because of past trades.

The Detroit Pistons and new head coach Stan Van Gundy sit at No. 8, but if they're jumped by a lottery team and knocked down to No. 9, the pick then goes to Michael Jordan's Charlotte Bobcats.

The Philadelphia 76ers clutch the No. 10 pick, but if they luck out and land in the top three, the selection goes to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Finally, the Phoenix Suns can grab Minnesota's pick if the Suns pass the Timberwolves in the lottery.

It can be a rather frustrating event for fans to watch the unlikely happen and see their team lose slots, but such is the bed front offices have made to the best of their ability. The scenarios also make for one heck of a draft party, even if the formula is highly controversial and in need of an overhaul in the minds of many.


All NBA draft lottery odds and scenarios courtesy of NBA.com.

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