While we won't put a final grade on this draft until 2013, we can start to evaluate now how the draft addressed the Patriots' perceived roster needs and if the Patriots were able to get good value at their picks.
Mel Kiper, Jr. gave us a C+, as he feels that we reached on our picks at linebacker and better options were available at corner.
I'm sure Belichick was quite upset to hear that. (Note sarcasm.)
Need
The Patriots came in with needs across the back seven on defense. Belichick and Pioli addressed that need early and often with the picks of Mayo, Wheatley, Crable, Wilhite, and Ruud.
Mayo will be in the ILB rotation immediately, while Crable will bring much needed depth to the OLB position.
Wheatley will probably contribute mainly as a slot corner to begin with, while Wilhite might crack the dime or quarter rotations. Ruud and Wilhite might help on special teams as well.
Considering that the Patriots scored a bazillion points last year, they didn't have many needs on the offensive side of the ball. Some felt that they needed to look at their offensive line, but free agency and development can help there.
Kevin O'Connell obviously doesn't fill a need for starting QB, but he does help bring competition and upside to a below-average backup QB corps.
Matt Slater should contribute on special-teams and is, at best, a homeless man's Troy Brown.
Value = Need x Rarity
The Patriots had Jerod Mayo as the number one linebacker on their board, so regardless of whether experts have labeled him a reach, Belichick got his guy.
Because Rivers was off the board at 10, ILBs were incredibly rare. Therefore, the Patriots got excellent value for the pick: high need, high rarity.
Wheatley was a slightly different story. Cornerback was definitely a high need area, but the rarity was low, as Charles Godfrey, Terrell Thomas, Justin King, and others were still on the board.
Belichick obviously had Terrence rated higher than the others, and we are not inclined to argue. Even with the low rarity, still a good value.
The O'Connell pick presents a lot of opportunities for the Patriots. He could be a good backup, or he could eventually replace Tom Brady because of injury or retirement.
Another option would be to treat him like Matt Schaub, who brought two second round picks to the Falcons from the Texans. His present value is low, but in the future that could grow exponentially.
NE Patriots Draft Grade: Incomplete (Check back in five years.)
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5 months ago
Five years? I think three years is the general "accepted" length.
Otherwise, great summary and recap of the draft! I think New England could have dropped a little lower in the first round, but, what do I know?
from 5 months ago
Yeah, but I do my grades after 5 years on my site. It gets the first round picks through their first contract typically and allows the Wilforks time to blossom, or the Eugene Wilsons time to bust.
5 months ago
You're right on about O'Connell. Being from the San Diego area and having seen him play on multiple occasions, he is a kid with a lot of upside. He is a good decision maker, and solid in the pocket. The Patriots can totally treat him like Matt Schaub, hoping to get something for him in the future.
5 months ago
I just loved the segment on Sportscenter where they discussed the possibility of the Patriots going after QB Matt Ryan. What a joke!!
5 months ago
Mark my words: Shawn Crable will be the best player from this draft for the Patriots in the long run.
Crable was the fastest linebacker to ever go through Michigan, and he is still a very large, strong, and athletic player who can go sideline to sideline. Unfortunately, nagging injuries and a weak defensive team around him dampered his season.
Just wait... Crable will be a monster.
5 months ago
If his Michigan team sucks shouldnt he have been more of a standout then? I am not hating on Crable by any means, but if the team around you is bad, and your "supposedly" good, then shouldnt your numbers jump? and MAKE the team the good. Thats a sign of a good player
5 months ago
Belichick will make Mayo, Wheatley and Crable stars...
everyone thinks since NE lost the SB they are finished
WRONG!
They are coming back with even a bigger chip on their shoulder now
from 5 months ago
I agree, lol. It's too early, but if you made me pick right now, I'd put the Pats at about 12-4 or 13-3 this year.
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