3x3: 3 Sleeper and 3 Bust Runners in '09

Fantasy players from the last couple of years know this guy very well. As a waiver wire pickup from 2006, Derrick Ward helped saavy players win championships by playing lightning to Brandon Jacobs' thunder. Ward and his role in the Giants' 2007 Super Bowl run are partly responsible to the running back by committee approach so popular with coaches and so loathed by fantasy owners.

But while he made his name playing backup, make no mistake. This guy can move the rock.

Ward picked up 1,025 yards rushing on just 182 carries. For those keeping score at home, that's just one shy of half of Adrian Peterson's 363 carries and less than half of Michael Turner's 376 totes.

Now, I admit that part of his success came from his being able to play with bruiser Brandon Jacobs. But in Tampa, he'll be splitting carries with Earnest Graham, a converted fullback who doesn't exactly shy away from contact.

What's better than that is the guy is a legitmate recieving threat. Last year, he caught 41 passes for 384 yards. Those numbers compare pretty well to Warrick Dunn, who caught 47 passes for 330 yards last year and recieved a lot of attention from fantasy gurus for his versatility.

For those scared of getting caught in the RBBC trap, don't. The Bucs gave him a lucrative 4-year $17 million deal. Despite being well under the cap, he has been the only high profile free agent acquisition.

Don't expect a Michael Turner type outburst, but combine Ward's ability with Tampa's underrated offensive line, and you have can turn a third round pick into first round production.

Last year, it seemed every fantasy expert had a love affair with Tim Hightower.

And why wouldn't they? Going into the 2008 season, Hightower was the obvious successor to Edgerrin James, who had been looking terrible since training camp. Everyone knew that, at the very least, Hightower would be a TD vulture snce he was far better than James on the goal line.

And, to a degree, they were right. Hightower picked up 10 scores last season. He ran well enough early to take the starting job from James in week 9 against the Rams, running for 109 yards and a score.

But that's the positive. As many of you know, he never topped 40 yards again and was an after thought in the Cards' Super Bowl loss.

But, even after the Cards used their first round pick on Chris Wells, they are claiming that Hightower is their guy. So, as a starting runner in the defensively-challenged NFC West, Hightower may command a third or fourth round pick.

Do yourself a favor and pass. While the team is putting him on a pedestal, he won't stay there. He is a fifth-rounder who earned his spot in training camp. He may be useful as a goal line back, but with Chris Wells in the lineup, he even stands to lose that.

The talent disparity between he and Wells is simply too great to last. Hightower will not produce on a regular basis, and Wells is a an every down back.

Expect Wells to take the starting job by week 6 and for Hightower to fall into obscurity. He will get drafted, but make sure it is not by you.

Ray Rice has been explosive this offseason. While coaches have called the Ravens' RB situation a "true" RBBC, it is clear who the standout has been.

Rice has outshined waiver-wire wonder Le'ron McClain and a "healthy" Willis McGahee, who is coming back after two offseason surgeries.

Rice warranted a number of pickups when he exploded on the Cleveland Browns to the tune of 154 yards. His season after that was bogged down by the Ravens trying to get carries to all three of their backs and still give rookie QB Joe Flacco opportunities.

This season, the Ravens are sticking McClain in at fullback primarily, dropping his carries significantly, and splitting the load between Rice and McGahee. Raise your hand if you think McGahee can stay healthy. Yeah, me neither.

I have a personal love/hate relationship with this guy. I hated him in 2007 when I grabbed him in the second round and was got only 2 scores all year. But last year, I got him in the third round and was rewarded for my loyalty with 13 TDs on 1,312 yards rushing. The dude won me a championship!

But this year, I'm jumping ship.

This year, Jones will be a first round pick. In mock drafts, he has been going anywhere from fourth to ninth. After last season, that is understandable. But buyer beware. You cannot expect that kind of production in '09.

Jones' contract woes have been one of the most underrated stories of the offseason. He is very unhappy, and the Jets aren't budging. As a matter of fact, they have entertained the notion of trading him if third round pick Shonn Greene can carry the load.

While that action may seem harsh, it is quickly coming to fruition. The coaching staff has been impressed with Greene as he has displayed more speed and burst than expected.

On top of that, a couple of teams have emerged as potential destinations for the disgruntled Jet, and none of them sport strong O-lines . Add all that to the fact that Jones turns 30 this year and has apparently lost a step, and the slasher looks a whole lot like Edgerrin James circa 2007.

My prediction for Jones' 2009 season, depending on where he lands, is just over 1,000 yards rushing with 3 TDs. That is not the kind of production you want in the first round.

Speaking of Green...

I have loved this guy since he was at Iowa. He is a big, powerful back with better speed and acceleration than you would expect. If I'm in your keeper league, I'm jumping over you to get this guy as soon as possible. He is Marion Barber with a better haircut.

Take a look out of reports from training camp. He is faster and cuts with more explosion than many expected coming out of Iowa.

Yeah, the Jets have been dealing with Thomas Jones whining about his contract practically since the season ended. But they did not start entertaining trade offers until they saw Greene in training camp. The Jets believe in this guy.

His college performance tells the same story. He burst on the scene in '08 with 1,850 yards on just 307 carries with 20 rushing TDs. He was looked at early on as a potential Heisman candidate despite Iowa's mediocre 3-3 record halfway through the season.

Greene is a bruiser, and NY thinks of him as a workhorse. He is the kind of guy that they expect to be an old school primary ballcarrier in an age of the RBBC. And at 5'11, 235 pounds, he has the brawn to do it.

Greene will be a guy that, like Forte a year ago, won't get consideration until the sixth or seventh round in your draft. But if you have a need and an opportunity, don't hesitate to take a shot on him. The risk may not pay dividends until closer to midseason, but he can be a great later round choice for a saavy owner.

I saved the best for last folks.

And this one hurts me too.

I love Brian Westbrook. Even when he was single handedly shredding me in past years, I loved him. He is an all purpose stud. Since 2006, Westbrook has piled up 5,358 yards from scrimmage with at least 11 touchdowns a season!

He has been considered an injury risk for the last couple of years, but he has still amassed these incredible numbers.

But this year, it all catches up to him.

Sure, it looks like his ankle surgery will not affect his production this year, but it does not matter. He is going to get hurt again. It's almost guaranteed. And when that ticking time bomb that is Brian Westbrook's body goes off, his fantasy owners will be left picking up the pieces.

The signs are there. Both his yards per carry and yards per catch numbers were down. He has lost a step. Not a big one, but he has.

The Eagles know it too. That's why they picked up the very underrated LeSean McCoy, who fits the Westbrook mold as an all purpose weapon out of the backfield.

On top of the evidence, this is a personal gut call. I had the same feeling in 2007 with Frank Gore and again last year with Joseph Addai.

Westbrook will get drafted in the top half of the first round ahead of Stephen Jackson, Clinton Portis, and all the rest of the guys on this list. But I am not drafting him. He may approach 1,000 yards rushing and 500 yards recieving. Or he produce less than half of that.

I'm going with the latter.

Thanks for checking out the 3x3. Take my advice, check me out in later weeks, and you could have the info to own your league before draft day! Tell your friends!