The Arizona Diamondbacks arguably have the best starting rotation in baseball.
Brandon Webb and Dan Haren form the majors' best 1-2 punch at the top of Arizona's rotation, sporting 6-0 and 4-1 records with ERAs of 1.98 and 3.13, respectively.
Micah Owings is doing his best to make it a 1-2-3 punch, as he is 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA.
If you think that's good, wait until you hear the name "Max Scherzer" in the Diamondbacks' rotation.
Scherzer, Arizona's first-round draft pick in 2006 out of the University of Missouri, had thrown 23.0 innings over four starts with AAA Tucson before being called up, posting a 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and an absolutely bananas 12.7 K:BB ratio (that's 38 strikeouts to three walks. I'll just let that sink in). These stats came just ten months after Scherzer signed with the Diamondbacks, as he nearly waited until the 2007 MLB draft to sign a contract.
The 23-year-old right-hander features a high-90's fastball that has excellent sink to it, a power slider, and a very good changeup.
Granted, there have been some questions about where Scherzer fits. Durability has been a question, and there is a belief that Scherzer's best chance at success would be out of the bullpen.
In his major-league debut on April 29, Scherzer came out of the bullpen and was flat-out dealing, hitting 98 MPH on the radar gun with his fastball and dropping a number of nasty changeups and sliders in there, too. He threw 4.1 innings, allowed no runs, no hits, and no walks, while fanning seven Astros' hitters on his way to one of the more dominant MLB debuts we've seen in the last few years. In fact, the 13 batters he retired to begin his career is a new record.
However, just because Scherzer made his MLB debut out of the bullpen doesn't mean he'll stay there. Edgar Gonzalez got the start the same day and struggled, allowing six earned runs in 2.2 innings before giving way to Scherzer.
With his performance today, it would appear that Scherzer should be in line to start his first MLB game on May 6 against Philadelphia unless Bob Melvin decides to skip the fifth starter's spot because of a May 1 off day.
If he is skipped, he likely would not see a start at the MLB level, as Doug Davis' projected return to the Diamondbacks rotation is May 9.
So that begs the question: what do the Diamondbacks do with Scherzer?
Judging by his AAA stats and debut today, he's accomplished all he can in the minors and is more than ready to be a mainstay in the majors. Arizona's bullpen has been taxed as of late and he would fit in perfectly as a long reliever or even a middle/setup guy, just based on his stuff.
But then consider this: Randy Johnson is currently a member of the Diamondbacks' rotation. No, no, I'm not saying the Diamondbacks should replace Johnson, who is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and has 20 strikeouts in 16.2 innings, in the rotation in favor of Scherzer.
However, given Johnson's recent history of injuries, it wouldn't surprise anyone if he had another stint on the disabled list this year.
Scherzer is certainly first in line to replace Johnson if The Big Unit goes down with an injury. And if that's the case, there's a good chance Scherzer will pitch well enough to force Melvin's hand and keep him in the rotation.
And thus begins the Webb/Haren/Owings/Scherzer era.
With all apologies to hopeful Cubs, Mets, and Cardinals fans, you ain't gettin' past that in a five or seven game series.
The scariest part? The oldest member of that group is Webb, who will be 29 on May 9. Haren is 27, Owings 25, and Scherzer 23. They have nowhere to go but up, which is amazing considering how good Webb and Haren already are.
The Diamondbacks have never been a big-market team. But, with the addition of Scherzer to their pitching staff, the rich are getting richer.
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5 months ago
Great article JJ. Were on the same page. I just posted my article on Scherzer and came to see if you had beaten me to the punch.
D Backs run the NL this year!
from 5 months ago
You had a good writeup on Scherzer, too. The D-Backs are easily baseball's most exciting team right now...
from 5 months ago
I'm pretty sure Yahoo Sports beat you both too it like 2 weeks ago.
from 5 months ago
*to
from 5 months ago
Huh? Scherzer debuted yesterday. Unless Yahoo's got some time machine I don't know about...
from 5 months ago
They did a whole expo(zay) on him over a week ago. Preeeetty much the exact same article minus the paragraph about yesterdays game.
5 months ago
The addition of Scherzer may make this the best rotation in baseball (if it isn't already). This D-Backs team is scary. We'll just have to see if their slightly inexperienced lineup can keep performing like they have been, as it's the only question mark they have (and a small one at that).
from 5 months ago
Guys like Jackson, Young, Reynolds, and Drew all have a full season under their belt and Justin Upton has shown me that he's the best young hitter in the game today. And their starting rotation without Scherzer is amazing, just think of how good it'll be when he's in there full-time...
5 months ago
This shit is bananas....b-a-n-a-n-a-s....you were entirely right. I think Webb is pissed that he lost the Cy Young to Peavy last season (and I'll even admit, I thought it was going to Webb despite Peavy dominating NL pitching categories), so the fact that he's 6-0 is a little scary to me. Oh well, at least I was prepared for the Padres to...um...not be that good...yea that's what we'll call it.
from 5 months ago
Webb and Haren easily could finish 1-2 in Cy Young voting this year, but Webb deserves it if he keeps pitching like this. In an era where it's so rare for pitchers to win 20 games, Webb has six wins in the first month? That's right, if he keeps this pace up he'll go 36-0. That's ridiculous.
5 months ago
Scherzer is going to be a stud. Period. Good job posting this so fast JJ.
from 5 months ago
He's certainly got the stuff to be a top-of-the-line starter. I was actually about to go to bed when I casually decided to check the D-Backs box score to see if Scherzer pitched, and there it was...wow.
5 months ago
I don't think he has anything on Clayton Kershaw. Although both amazing, Kershaw just turned twenty, throws a mid nineties fastball, a dominating Santana-like change up AND a 12-6 curve that will make rookies out of veterans.
5 months ago
I noticed that you didn't mention anything about Scherzer's mechanics. He has a strange head-whack in his delivery. Not only does that create additional strain on his head, neck, and shoulder (since it pulls his body farther from his release point, stressing the shoulder), it also diminishes control and command. That is the major concern with Scherzer; his lack of a plus pitch other than his fastball is another problem.
I wrote about this on my blog but I think Scherzer should be given a chance in the rotation but will ultimately end up as a top-end reliever.
I also think that you overrate the Diamondbacks' rotation since Owings is going to regress and should post a 4.00+ ERA and Haren is a touch overrated. However, if Scherzer can maintain decent control and develop a reliable second pitch (either his change-up or slider), then they will be vastly better as a team.
from 5 months ago
His delivery could definitely be an issue, you're right. And although he may not have that extra plus pitch right now, just from seeing a few of the sliders and changeups he threw the other night, I firmly believe he has the ability to turn one, if not both, of those into an excellent secondary out pitch.
I don't see why Owings has to regress as far as an ERA of 4.00. He's only 26 and has a good (not great) track record in the minors & college. And why do you think Haren is overrated? Just curious.
Thanks for your comments, Matthew!
5 months ago
As for Owings, he's a fly ball pitcher (this year, 32 groundball outs, 40 fly ball outs) in a hitter's park (1.112 for HR last season, 1.111 for runs in general, putting it as the 5th best offensive ballpark in the majors). That's going to lead to inflated HR allowed totals, dampening his overall effectiveness. He gave up 20 HR last year in 152.2 innings; if you adjust that for 200 innings, you're looking at about 26 HR a season. He's on about the same pace this year but he's kept his walks down so far and has a great BABIP that is unsustainable (about .208 last I checked). So yeah, regression to mean is definitely going to bite him.
As for Haren, he's not an ace, he's more of a middle of the rotation guy. He played in a great pitcher's ballpark in Oakland and now is in a hitter's park. His K/9 rate last year was his highest in any season and he's already fallen back down a bit from it this year. I expect him to eat over 200 innings and post an ERA of about 3.50 in the NL. Those are good numbers but hardly ace caliber.
Btw, I posted a piece on Scherzer as well that's up here now if you want to take a look and leave a comment. I know I'm new here but it seems like a fun place!
from 5 months ago
I never looked at it that way—great points about Owings, Matthew. Although fly ball pitchers who allow a lot of home runs can have success if they keep their walks down, which Owings seems to be doing so far.
I personally picked Haren to win the Cy Young this year (on the basis that his performance from Oakland would stay consistent and improve facing weaker offenses like San Diego and San Francisco in the NL West), and I'm not going to chicken out on that pick now (much like I'm sticking with Cleveland as my W.S. pick). But you do make some very good points about Haren's K/9 ratio falling back a bit, which is a bit worrisome for my pick.
Good piece on Scherzer—I'll be sure to comment on it. You're going to fit in perfectly here, you really know your stuff!
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