Four Quarters: A Look at the Carolina Panthers' 2009 Schedule, Pt. 1

(Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

Week Three, at the Dallas Cowboys

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 13th (ninth in passing, 21st in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: eighth (5th in Passing, 12th against the run)

This is one of the games you circle on the schedule at the beginning of the year. The Cowboys are opening their shiny new stadium on Monday Night, and your team has been chosen as the sacrificial visitors, right? 

Not gonna happen! Even if the Cowboys win, the entire league will know on Tuesday morning that the Panthers belong among the league's elite.

The Cowboys spent their offseason trying to rebuild chemistry in the locker room. They cut their problem players and added a few high character guys. It could change their performance on the field, but they're getting older and may not have what it takes to dominate in 2009.

Start with the Cowboy defense.  Dallas had the eighth best unit in the league last year, but they were 19th in points allowed. Go figure...

Basically, their entire defensive philosophy revolves around making the big play.  They commit to bringing all kinds of pressure, but when they miss they give up yards in chunks. They're also more vulnerable against the run as a result.

The Cowboys have one of the best defensive players in the game in DeMarcus Ware, and their linebackers used to be just plain scary. But they let Greg Ellis walk, and at End they also lost Chris Canty. 

Where Canty's concerned, they'll be depending on Igor Olshansky to replace him. Olshansky stunk it up for the Chargers in 2008, but at least he has potential. 

Instead of Roy Williams roaming the secondary, they'll be leaning on a young safety who wasn't anything particularly special on a poorly ranked Jacksonville defense. 

To shore up their interior defense they'll look to aging linebacker Keith Brooking. If your defensive plan has anything to do with a player who washed out of Atlanta, you may be in trouble.

And don't forget the whole Tank Johnson experiment. Wait, go ahead and forget it—he's not back either. Jay Ratliff is good, but he's not the run stuffer that the boys will need against Double Trouble.

The Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in the league and were the best in 2008 at springing long runs. The Cowboys can still bring pressure, but if Williams makes them miss once he's gone.  And nothing is more demoralizing to a defense than giving up long run after long run. Which, of course, makes the play-action that much better. 

Basically, Dallas shouldn't count on being able to shut down the Panthers this week.

So like the Atlanta game, this could be a scoring duel. Tony Romo is a very talented quarterback with a big arm and great pocket presence. Marion Barber is a bruising running back who's hard to bring down with the first hit. Felix Jones is also capable of inflicting a lot of damage in the running game. 

But among the receivers, even their star is a bit of a question mark. Roy Williams is talented, but he's never really been able to establish himself as a reliable No. 1 receiver. Ditto for Patrick Crayton. One of them needs to emerge as a top threat. If it wasn't for all-world tight end Jason Witten, the Panthers could probably play the receivers straight up and stack the box against the Cowboys.

Romo is also known for folding in big games. He may be great at buying time in the pocket, but he's not known for his game preparation or decision making. And while this may be the second game of the season, it's a big one. It's Monday night, it's the first game in the new stadium, and he's going to have to produce.

In addition, the Dallas offense needs a lot of help at left guard and left tackle, and all the pocket presence in the world won't help you when it collapses under a serious rush. 

In this contest, don't expect the Cowboy defense to stop the Panthers and don't look for their offense to score at will. And if the Panthers are close late in the game, or ahead, you can almost bank on Romo and head coach Wade Phillips to buckle under the pressure. 

I see the Cowboys giving up the on the run a lot earlier than they should and realizing that while they may not miss the drama, TO's talent is hard to replace. At first glance this looks like a scheduled trip to loserville, but that's all based on hype. Don't be surprised at all if the Panthers score the upset.

Dallas leads the series 7-3

Week Five, the Washington Redskins

2008 Record: 8-8
2008 Offensive Rank: 19th (23rd in passing, eighth in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: fourth (seventh in Passing, eighth against the run)

The Panthers have played the Redskins eight times, and almost every game they've played has been decided by four points or less. The bad news is that the Panthers lone victory came in the Super Bowl year of 2003.

This is only the fourth time the Skins have come to Charlotte though, and they've never faced a Panthers squad like this.

Washington finished 2008 with a good defense and a pedestrian offense, and in the offseason they doubled down on their strength. In 2008 their defense was pretty good, particularly for a unit that couldn't pressure the quarterback. They've taken steps to make it better, and this could be the stiffest test for the Panthers offense this season.

The Redskins went out and made a decent defensive line into a potentially scary one with the addition of Albert Haynesworth and rookie Brian Orakpo. They also spent their first four draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, which could make an already talented defense even better.

On offense though, Redskin fans were left scratching their heads. The line was a mess last year, and the front office's flirtations with Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez certainly didn't show a lot of confidence in Jason Campbell. The only place they're really solid is at the running back position.

Clinton Portis is the real deal. He's among the league's best running backs. The Redskins rely on him a little too much, though, and he tends to wear down over the course of the season. But the Panthers are facing him early this year.

While Redskin receivers won't strike fear into anyone, neither Antwaan Randel El nor Santana Moss can be overlooked. Both can come up with the big play and they're both reliable enough, they just need a quarterback who can get them the ball. Chris Cooley is also a threat to catch the ball at any time.

In contrast to the Dallas and Atlanta games, this looks like it's going to be a low scoring brawl. Both teams will try to run it and establish dominance on the line. The Panthers strengths match up well with the Redskins, but this is a home game, and the Panthers are coming off of their bye week. 

I expect this contest to be marked with a lot of slugging it out mixed in with several big plays—with most of them on the home team side.

Of the first four, this is the most likely to end in a W for the Panthers.

Washington leads the series 7-1

Conclusion

There's no doubt the first quarter of the season is going to be tough. Carolina has never played the NFC East well, and the Falcons are the only division opponent that's ever had our number. 

So even if it's remote, there's a real possibility that the Panthers will be winless. There's also a slightly better possibility that they'll be undefeated, but what's likely is a split. 

And it gets a little easier in the second quarter. If the Panthers go 1-3 it doesn't mean anyone should panic. They have time to get it back.

So there you have it. I'm calling it a probable 2-2 start, with a possible upset in Dallas.  Anything better than that and I'm going to start talking playoffs—in October.

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