Kentucky Derby Picks 2014: Pre-Race Predictions Based on Vegas Odds

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Kentucky Derby Picks 2014: Pre-Race Predictions Based on Vegas Odds
Morry Gash/Associated Press

With the 2014 Kentucky Derby field set—for the third time—it's time to decipher which horse has what it takes to don the garland of roses.

There's already been plenty of movement regarding the Vegas odds for the race due to horses pulling out and post positions shifting.

After the scratch of Hoppertunity on Thursday, followed by the scratch of Pablo Del Monte on Friday, here's a look at how the race's post positions and odds look, according to The Baltimore Sun:

2014 Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds
Post Horse Odds
2 Vicar's In Trouble 20-1
3 Harry's Holiday 50-1
4 Uncle Sigh 30-1
5 Danza 8-1
6 California Chrome 5-2
7 Samraat 15-1
8 We Miss Artie 50-1
9 General A Rod 15-1
10 Vinceremos 30-1
11 Wildcat Red 15-1
12 Dance With Fate 20-1
13 Chitu 20-1
14 Medal Count 20-1
15 Tapiture 12-1
16 Intense Holiday 8-1
17 Commanding Curve 50-1
18 Candy Boy 15-1
19 Ride On Curlin 15-1
20 Wicked Strong 6-1

BaltimoreSun.com

With this knowledge in mind, let's move on to the predictions.

Starting on the inside is a daunting task. Luckily, due to the scratch of Pablo Del Monte, the first post position will remain vacant this year.

Vicar's In Trouble will stay on the inside but start from the second post. It's not much of a shift, but the horse's chances of getting pinned against the rail lessen slightly.

Danza, California Chrome and Samraat all figure to be heavy factors in this year's Run for the Roses. Each horse moves outward by one gate, with the favorite California Chrome starting from the sixth position.

The heavily favored Chrome now has a cleaner path in the beginning of the race and appears to be the one to beat this year.

Wildcat Red has high aspirations for this race; however, he moves from gate 10 to 11 after the last shift. This doesn't appear to be a drastic move at first glance; although, gates one and 11 are the first to be loaded. He'll have some time to wait before the race gets underway.

Commanding Curve wasn't exactly a favorite to begin with and now has the daunting task of starting from the 17th post—the only one which has never yielded a Kentucky Derby winner. That trend looks to continue for another year.

Wicked Strong will start on the far outside in 20th position. This doesn't seem like a favorable spot; however, with a great deal of stamina and tremendous closing speed, this horse has what it takes to make up plenty of ground over the final furlong.

Taking all of this into consideration, here's how the final standings of this year's race could look:

2014 Kentucky Derby Final Predictions
Finish Horse Post
1 California Chrome 6
2 Danza 5
3 Wicked Strong 20
4 Intense Holiday 16
5 Wildcat Red 11
6 Ride On Curlin 19
7 Tapiture 15
8 Samraat 7
9 Dance With Fate 12
10 General A Rod 9
11 Candy Boy 18
12 Medal Count 14
13 Vicar's In Trouble 2
14 Uncle Sigh 4
15 Chitu 13
16 Vinceremos 10
17 We Miss Artie 8
18 Commanding Curve 17
19 Harry's Holiday 3

Sean O'Donnell's Predictions

Predicting this race isn't an exact science. There's plenty to take into consideration and there's always some dumb luck involved.

Although, one thing is for certain: This strong field is sure to make the 140th Kentucky Derby a sight to behold.

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