Kentucky Derby Picks 2014: Pre-Race Predictions Based on Vegas Odds

Sean ODonnellContributor IIIMay 3, 2014

Exercise rider Ezequiel Perez takes Kentucky Derby entrant Danza for a morning workout at Churchill Downs Thursday, May 1, 2014, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Morry Gash/Associated Press

With the 2014 Kentucky Derby field set—for the third time—it's time to decipher which horse has what it takes to don the garland of roses.

There's already been plenty of movement regarding the Vegas odds for the race due to horses pulling out and post positions shifting.

After the scratch of Hoppertunity on Thursday, followed by the scratch of Pablo Del Monte on Friday, here's a look at how the race's post positions and odds look, according to The Baltimore Sun:

2014 Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds
2Vicar's In Trouble20-1
3Harry's Holiday50-1
4Uncle Sigh30-1
6California Chrome5-2
8We Miss Artie50-1
9General A Rod15-1
11Wildcat Red15-1
12Dance With Fate20-1
14Medal Count20-1
16Intense Holiday8-1
17Commanding Curve50-1
18Candy Boy15-1
19Ride On Curlin15-1
20Wicked Strong6-1

With this knowledge in mind, let's move on to the predictions.

Starting on the inside is a daunting task. Luckily, due to the scratch of Pablo Del Monte, the first post position will remain vacant this year.

Vicar's In Trouble will stay on the inside but start from the second post. It's not much of a shift, but the horse's chances of getting pinned against the rail lessen slightly.

Danza, California Chrome and Samraat all figure to be heavy factors in this year's Run for the Roses. Each horse moves outward by one gate, with the favorite California Chrome starting from the sixth position.

The heavily favored Chrome now has a cleaner path in the beginning of the race and appears to be the one to beat this year.

Wildcat Red has high aspirations for this race; however, he moves from gate 10 to 11 after the last shift. This doesn't appear to be a drastic move at first glance; although, gates one and 11 are the first to be loaded. He'll have some time to wait before the race gets underway.

Commanding Curve wasn't exactly a favorite to begin with and now has the daunting task of starting from the 17th post—the only one which has never yielded a Kentucky Derby winner. That trend looks to continue for another year.

Wicked Strong will start on the far outside in 20th position. This doesn't seem like a favorable spot; however, with a great deal of stamina and tremendous closing speed, this horse has what it takes to make up plenty of ground over the final furlong.

Taking all of this into consideration, here's how the final standings of this year's race could look:

2014 Kentucky Derby Final Predictions
1California Chrome6
3Wicked Strong20
4Intense Holiday16
5Wildcat Red11
6Ride On Curlin19
9Dance With Fate12
10General A Rod9
11Candy Boy18
12Medal Count14
13Vicar's In Trouble2
14Uncle Sigh4
17We Miss Artie8
18Commanding Curve17
19Harry's Holiday3
Sean O'Donnell's Predictions

Predicting this race isn't an exact science. There's plenty to take into consideration and there's always some dumb luck involved.

Although, one thing is for certain: This strong field is sure to make the 140th Kentucky Derby a sight to behold.